The next president's religion

[morgieb]

Catholic. 30% of a Mormon, others rest on Hillary (if she isn't running and Obama wins then I'm around 90% sure that the next president will be a Catho)

[morgieb]

*bump*

I'd say....

Catholic = 43% probability
Mormon = 30% probability (this is mostly because of the remaining probability that Romney pulls it out next month)
Mainline Protestant = 20% probability (the biggest contributor here being Hillary Clinton)
Evangelical = 5% probability
something else = 2% probability

I feel like Evangelical should be higher, but I'm struggling to think of any Evangelical 2016 candidates who could plausibly win.  None of the likely Democratic candidates are Evangelicals, are they?  On the GOP side, the potential 2016ers who are Evangelical would be.....who?  Pence, Perry, Thune, Walker?  I think there's an outside chance of Cruz running, and he's an Evangelical, isn't he?  In any case, the collective probability of all of those guys being the next president isn't very great.

Isn't Rand Paul Evangelical?