Describe an Obama 2012/Hillary 2016/Trump 2020 voter

[Battista Minola 1616]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

How many White Arkansans voted Democratic in 2016 for "affinity with the Clintons"? She lost Arkansas by 27 points, and that after Obama lost it by 24 points and after 2008 early polls had Hillary Clinton BEATING John McCain in AR.

[Battista Minola 1616]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

How many White Arkansans voted Democratic in 2016 for "affinity with the Clintons"? She lost Arkansas by 27 points, and that after Obama lost it by 24 points and after 2008 early polls had Hillary Clinton BEATING John McCain in AR.

But she did better with WHite Voters in ARK than AL,MS,LA, rural GA. WHy?

Because in the Deep South non-Hispanic White voters are extremely Republican in a way that they aren't in the Upland South - which likely has something to do with the higher proportion of Black people in the Deep South states. I don't think Hillary Clinton in 2016 had any special appeal in Arkansas: she lost non-Hispanic White voters there by roughly the same margin as in Tennessee or Oklahoma.

[Battista Minola 1616]

A white democrat in Arkansas with an affinity for the Clintons

How many White Arkansans voted Democratic in 2016 for "affinity with the Clintons"? She lost Arkansas by 27 points, and that after Obama lost it by 24 points and after 2008 early polls had Hillary Clinton BEATING John McCain in AR.

But she did better with WHite Voters in ARK than AL,MS,LA, rural GA. WHy?

Because in the Deep South non-Hispanic White voters are extremely Republican in a way that they aren't in the Upland South - which likely has something to do with the higher proportion of Black people in the Deep South states. I don't think Hillary Clinton in 2016 had any special appeal in Arkansas: she lost non-Hispanic White voters there by roughly the same margin as in Tennessee or Oklahoma.

Source: https://www.whitdem.org/2016WhiteVote.html

(obviously it is an estimate and certainly there are other studies on this, but that squares with the fact, for example, that AR and TN have extremely similar racial demographics and the 2016 results were very similar between the two states)