End of 2017: Is Trump favored to be re-elected?

[twenty42]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

[twenty42]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

This comment is ridiculous. He won with terrible approval ratings because his opponent was only slightly less unpopular than him - and, crucially, Clinton was viewed as even less trustworthy than Trump. If the Democratic nominee in 2020 is even modestly popular, Trump is in big trouble.

And where is the evidence that Dems have a “modestly popular” candidate to nominate in 2020? And doesn’t it concern you that the two front-runners for the nomination will be close to 80 on Election Day?