End of 2017: Is Trump favored to be re-elected?

[Burke859]

The one thing that I would note is that Trump's electoral coalition is apportioned throughout the nation in just the right way for him to win re-election while still getting only a popular vote total in the mid-40s.  That's pretty powerful, since George W. Bush almost lost in 2004 (Ohio would have flipped the whole election) while winning 51 percent of the popular vote that year.

Trump traded voters in the traditional Republican South and West for voters in the Rust Belt, and the consequence is that he can win Texas and Ohio both by 10 instead of winning Texas by 20 and Ohio by 1, which means that Ohio needs less attention and everything can be poured into Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida.

If Trump can get his Gallup approval to 45% on Election Day, I think he holds on.  Democrats are also in a bit of a pickle as they have to decide whether to try to flip North Carolina and Florida blue, or focus on winning back the Midwest, which are two different strategies really.  There's always the chance for a blowout where Trump just craters everywhere, but he's already back up to 40 in Gallup now that the tax bill is done, and if Democrats take Congress in 2018, he will likely move to the center and try to ride the good economy to a victory in 2020.

[Burke859]

IMO, the main thing that needs to happen for Trump to be re-elected is that the HOUSE needs to go Democratic, but not the Senate.

With the tax bill passed, Trump has a win under his belt that will give workers more money in their paychecks, something that people will notice in a positive way over the next year.  But the tax bill also repealed the OCare mandate, which will drive up premiums, making some kind of OCare reform necessary.  The House as currently constituted will never agree to that, because Paul Ryan and the Freedom Caucus are ideologically opposed to OCare's existence. 

Give the House to the Dems and you've got a legislative body that will pass a watered down version of OCare that can then be taken up by the cynical pragmatists in Mitch McConnell's Senate.  Trump can then take credit for cutting taxes and saving health care reform, similar to the way Bill Clinton ate his vegetables by raising taxes during his first two years in office and then moved to the center with welfare reform the second two years (while claiming that his tax bill was responsible for the good economy by closing the deficit).

The Senate needs to stay in Republican hands though because otherwise we just get stalemate as the Democratic Congress waits Trump out.  Also, a Republican Senate is needed to give confirmation to another SCOTUS Justice should a vacancy arise.  The GOP doesn't need a fight over a SCOTUS seat making abortion an issue during the 2020 election, when they can win on the economy and domestic issue reform.

If I were an RNC strategist right now, I'd be secretly taking a knee on winning the House in 2018 while pouring money into red state Senate races.