Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/17/politics/georgia-governor-candidate-bump-stock/

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I think his chances of getting the GOP nomination just went up.

lol, this is sick (in the worst of ways).

[Dr. Arch]

Norwood is nowhere near a Trump conservative.

She don't have to be a Trump conservative to be a Republican.

Disgusting

[Dr. Arch]

Might as well just check back in tomorrow morning. Maybe we'll be at 5% precincts reported then.

Well yeah, it's Georgia.

[Dr. Arch]

So 100% in. Bottoms won by 759. Likely recount but I could see Norwood just conceding.

Thank goodness

[Dr. Arch]

Btw, 700 votes is how much Norwood lost to Reed in 2009.... that's insane.

LOL

[Dr. Arch]

Mary Norwood looks PISSED

https://twitter.com/11AliveNews/status/938276745437999105

Republican-lite running as an independent. She deserved to have lost by more, but there's something even sweeter about losing to the same vote margin that she did last time.

[Dr. Arch]

Mary Norwood looks PISSED

https://twitter.com/11AliveNews/status/938276745437999105

Republican-lite running as an independent. She deserved to have lost by more, but there's something even sweeter about losing to the same vote margin that she did last time.

The partisanship is painful. No need to be so divisive and glorify and perfectly good public servant's temporary loss.

Partisanship? No. The Republican party deserves to be punished.

I first came to the mainland with an open mind, as an independent. As the years went by, I saw a party run on anti-intellectualism, conspiracies, dog whistles, corporate welfare, resentment, among many other things.

Then I saw candidates run away with sexual assault, physical assault, religious extremism, shutting down voter enrollment efforts, and, most recently, pedophile apologism.

The Republican party is not conservative. It is not a structured ideology forming part of a debate on how to improve society. It is rotten to the core, both morally and ethically, for the sake of resentment politics, power, and screwing the people over in everything from taxes to education to healthcare--the modern-day pharisees.

Anyone running under the banner deserves no sympathy unless they not only disavow what the party represents, but embodies that disavowal with actions. Even worse is running as a Democrat (Jim) or as an Independent (Mary) just to fool voters.

No. Get real. Until then, don't even dare to try and come at me as if we're on even ground. We're not.

[Dr. Arch]

Bottoms did the same as Reid in 2009 she must have done better with white voters than he did when you add in demographic changes.

Is Atlanta getting whiter?

Yes almost certainly. As for your previous question in 2016 registered voters were 590,362 in Fulton county it is now 640,861.

Holy sh**t. That has to scare the hell outta the GA GOP

According to SOS results of 2016 and Dekalb website. In 2016 Dekalb had 419,871 and its now 501,452. You can probably thank Ossoff for that and Trump won by a margin of 211,141.

Can you please send me a link for this? I would love to sift through the data and sort gains/losses by Trump and Clinton counties. I'm guessing Cobb and Gwinnett also had insane surges.

Ok this is the results from 2016 but you have to click the county for registered voters.
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/63991/184321/en/select-county.html
This is the registration as of Dec 1. (Spreadsheet)
http://sos.ga.gov/admin/files/Active_Voters_by_Race_and_Gender_as_of_December_1_2017.xlsx

Thanks! This will be an interesting albeit tedious project when I'm bored at work.

If anyone wants to help me on this project, please Pm me! I want to have it done by Friday.

Just glancing at it now, the two counties in metro Atlanta that swung hardest from Romney to Clinton, Gwinnett and Cobb, gained a ton of voters in just a year. Gwinnett gained 50,000 and Cobb gained about 34,000.

I am going to sort every county by Trump/Clinton county, then mark the change from 2016-->2017 in each one and sum them together in Excel.

If possible, you also might want to look at whether these changes in voter registration reflect totally new voters in Georgia's rolls or some internal movement of D-leaning voters from other D rural areas in the state to the metro core.

[Dr. Arch]

She is an insufferable loser. She was present at the recount this morning and left in a frenzy because they were not counting them to her satisfaction.

Now her lawyer is alleging that several Bottoms-friendly precincts in SW Atlanta should be thrown out because they were recently annexed into the city and there is still debate in the GA Supreme Court on the legitimacy of the annexations.

lmao, wow. Republicans are REALLY sore losers. Moore in Alabama, and this "independent" in GA.

Please. Bye Felicia. You lost.

[Dr. Arch]

She is an insufferable loser. She was present at the recount this morning and left in a frenzy because they were not counting them to her satisfaction.

Now her lawyer is alleging that several Bottoms-friendly precincts in SW Atlanta should be thrown out because they were recently annexed into the city and there is still debate in the GA Supreme Court on the legitimacy of the annexations.

[Dr. Arch]

Georgia dem underperformance better have been because of the game yesterday

They did pretty well in November, idk what happened today

I mean, 7% turnout.

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting data point here: According to Pew, Democrats now hold a 2% ID advantage in GA.. That's within the margin of error, but it would point towards the general election being competitive, especially if the trend continues this year as it did in 2017.

Is this a new development?

[Dr. Arch]

A lot of southern states have a similar amount of D's as R's but the independents heavily lean R.

For how long is the question.

[Dr. Arch]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

[Dr. Arch]

Delta R-D will end up being around 50,000.

[Dr. Arch]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

<2% win = Landslide? lol

[Dr. Arch]

The room reserved had 130 seats put out. In the end, 200 people showed up. In Dalton. With 2 days notice. With rain pouring. I can speak from personal experience that that is a very good and large crowd given the circumstances.

That is awesome. Abrams is building a movement. My dad is a black Republican who is voting for her. I'm very excited for November.