France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

And if you knew, Phil, how much unFrench I am !!! LOL !
Ask Antonio or Hashemite.

You're the French equivalent of John Kerry.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, for the only time I could update it immediately...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen again on the rise ? The hope will have lasted for short...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated. Weird and mostly worrying trends, with Sarko and Le Pen higher... LOL Bayrou. Well, at least the far-lefties fall into total irrelevancy and the sovereignist remain there.

I think it's a bit too early for a second round tracker, personally I'd wait for September before making these conjectures. But that'll still be funny to follow.

Any theory about why in the world the NPA and Arthaud scores are flipped when you switch Aubry with Hollande ? Crazy statistical issues are crazy.

Oh, also. Aubry isn't peaking, she has peaked last week by your tracker. You can never say a candidate is peaking, because once you can see the peak it means it has already started to decrease.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

That pathetic outfit is still alive ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her )

It's not like Hollande is newer...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

Only Hollande and Aubry have a shot at winning the PS primary. Medias act as if Royal had one too, but they don't even bother for the other guys.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No new poll, again ?

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Those numbers seem quite far off compared with other ones (socialists in the 30s, really ?).

Also, looks like we have two more jokes in the race...

[Antonio the Sixth]

2% forecast Valls winning the primary, and 9% Royal ? LOL.

Forecasts for Presidential elections seem less ridiculous than in the previous poll.



Also, I disagree with the primary voters on who is the most able to defeat Sarkozy. I think Hollande's popularity is far less solid than it seems IMO. That might just me my dislike for Hollande combined with paranoia, but let's see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

     Rightists can be explained by him energizing his base, but why is it that leftists are more likely to forecast a Sarkozy victory now too? That seems highly counter-intuitive, what with the PS hopefuls gaining in the polls.

Most of this probably comes from the fear of seeing the primaries turn into a bitter fight that will end up fragilizing the nominee whoever he/she is (see the Reims Congress for example).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Back and forth, really... I don't imagine one second that Aubry and Hollande will be over 30%, that just can't happen. But that's still quite encouraging.

I'll update my graphs next week.


BTW, was reading an article on Le Monde about Boutin and those ******** journalists call her a "candidate of the centre"... Yeah, she's so moderate... ROFL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ...)

She seems to be far more concerned about gay marriage and abortion than about the fate of unemployeds or the destruction of public services, though. At least original Christian Democrats helped drafting the CNR program... But yeah, if Villepin is a "centrist" too, why not Boutin after all.

I guess it's Robert Schuman you're refering to ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hulot is losing ? Really ? That's so awesome... and beyond any expectation !

Of course there remains electronic votes, and seeing the rumours there have been about them, I fear it could end up badly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news about how the election is going ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently we'll get the e-voting results by 17h CEST. Barring a fraud of epic proportions (but I wouldn't entirely exclude it) Joly is headed to win, or at least to go to the runoff in a very good situation.

Surprises like this one make me gain back some trust in humanity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL Hulot. Epic fail is epic.

I still don't get how the two nobodies can get almost 10% together.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Joly strikes me as a kind of French Di Pietro, with strong stances on justice and fight against corruption. Maybe that makes her "intolerant" in some way, but I think she is 100% right. France is not as awful as Italy, but the way powerful people are treated by justice is pretty sickening (see Pasqua, Chirac, etc...).

I'll be voting for Moscovici in the 1st round if he runs, but I doubt he will. He knows he can't win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is the most stressful campaign I've ever seen. At this point, I really hoped he was guilty, even though my guts have never believed it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vance didn't drop the charges. The next audience is on july 18, candidacy deadline for the primaries is on july 13, so that's over. Don't know if it's good or bad news...

[Antonio the Sixth]

He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

Oh, come on. The PS is stupid, but that's too much even for them...

[Antonio the Sixth]

No tracker today ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, of course that's awful news for Aubry, and everything looks even messier now. Things really need to get clear soon or a catastrophe is quite likely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's what it gives us !

Aubry :


Hollande :



On Fab's request, I've included Villepin despite his falling into utter irrelevancy. The 4 others are just insignificant (in both senses). Note that "Hulot" is likely outdated, and once the EELV runoff is held it will be time to change it into "Joly".