France 2012: the official thread (user search)
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 363544 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #125 on: July 05, 2011, 12:32:53 PM »
Quote from: Χahar on July 05, 2011, 12:01:52 PM
Why is Le Pen is dark red? It makes it look like he's on the left.

It was supposed to be brown, not dark red. Wink But indeed it's quite hard to distinguish. Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #126 on: July 06, 2011, 04:02:00 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on July 05, 2011, 05:01:53 PM
So what's the deal with DSK? Is he coming back or at least strongly leaning one way or the other? Would he even have much of a chance in the primary?

The left is split 50-50 about whether or not he should come back in the race (which is already a bad sign). Assuming he wants (and it's doubtful, though not impossible), he'll have a hard time for a lot of reasons : his image has still been degraded by this story, Martine Aubry (with whom he had an "agreement") has already declared, the deadline for candidacies is almost over and other PS bosses don't seem to want him back.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #127 on: July 06, 2011, 04:58:47 AM »
That makes sense, but honestly who cares ? As you said, it's all a matter of image.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #128 on: July 07, 2011, 08:52:35 AM »
Baylet ? Really ? ROFL.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #129 on: July 08, 2011, 04:18:19 AM »
Quote from: big bad fab on July 08, 2011, 04:11:46 AM
(BTW, that's personal, but it's worth saying it, once and for all: why on earth DSK doesn't write a simple letter to the president of the national committee in charge of the primaries' organization to confirm he won't be a candidate ?

He's not really kind towards the socialists Tongue : had I been a socialist, I would have hated him, just like I hated Villepin with his CPE in the spring of 2006, pushing the right on the verge of collapsing...)

Pretty much so.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #130 on: July 10, 2011, 12:00:00 PM »
Le Pen at 15% ? If it's not an outlier, that's good news for sure. I guess Le Pen needs to constantly be in the news to survive, but recent times have been so eventful that it was impossible for the media to keep on with their "Le Pen's irresistible rise" narrative.

So you'll start including Boutin in the tracker ? Fun. Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #131 on: July 11, 2011, 02:24:04 AM »
French politics are far more about image than about issues. If Le Pen is so high among working class, it's less because of her stances than because of her style (populism, etc...).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #132 on: July 11, 2011, 05:31:52 AM »
All this for one poll which may be an outlier ? Tongue

Anyways, do you count Hulot's former numbers as Joly's or did you edit the data in your previous polls ?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #133 on: July 12, 2011, 06:21:25 AM »
Quote from: big bad fab on July 11, 2011, 04:12:39 PM
Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

Wut ? Huh How would this affect Hollande ?


So the LH2 poll was definitely an outlier... Le Pen still at 17-18% (which isn't catastrophic but still worrying). Bayrou isn't crazily high as in the other poll, but Mélenchon still down.

BTW, apparently Joly has won the runoff with 60% (according to France Inter), which means she basically took all of Hulot's votes. Very good to know. Smiley


Oh, and I noticed by updating your tracker that the standing of little candidates is also totally transformed : Chevènement's score is doubled and at its highest level since may 23, Poutou and Arthaud's scores are flipped (in the latter's favor), NDA higher too...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #134 on: July 12, 2011, 08:16:18 AM »
Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #135 on: July 12, 2011, 08:52:50 AM »
I just hope the 2012 campaign will be on actual policies, and not about these kinds of hearsays. But probably that's asking too much to the medias...


Anyways, 81% of Boutin voters for Aubry... ROFL indeed... Roll Eyes I wonder how those people will feel if Aubry wins and the government legalizes gay marriage ! Grin (BTW, didn't she also make a law easing abortion during Jospin's days ?)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #136 on: July 12, 2011, 10:17:18 AM »
Quote from: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 09:56:16 AM
Joly 58.16
she'll be the Green candidate
Hulot 41.34

He had 40.22 in the first round. So most of Lhomme and Stoll voters went for Joly.
"Traditional" Greens have rejected Hulot, that's clear.

And that's done ! Smiley I've always feared that Hulot would somehow magically end up winning (it's a primary, so really nothing is impossible). Now the joke is definitely out (if he runs by himfelf, he would just ridiculize himself).


Your description of French catholics seems pretty interesting and accurate, but I feel you're underestimating the last two categories and overestimating the second. It is a well-known political fact that a strong majority of "true" catholics are right-wing, so I have a hard time seeing 75% of them as social catholics who don't give a damn about social issues.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #137 on: July 13, 2011, 05:04:24 AM »
WHAT THE F**K ? Shocked

OK, things will end up very badly...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #138 on: July 13, 2011, 12:49:35 PM »
Not as far as I know, hence my reaction...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #139 on: July 13, 2011, 03:14:04 PM »
If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #140 on: July 13, 2011, 03:18:58 PM »
Quote from: big bad fab on July 13, 2011, 03:15:25 PM
Quote from: Italy : 2  Berlusconi : 0 on July 13, 2011, 03:14:04 PM
If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...

It's just one poll, Antonio.
He is really hated, you know Wink.

Well, if I'm trying to convince you that he will lose, now... Tongue Cheesy

That just means we're both diehard pessimists. Grin Yeah, of course it can be an outlier, but it can also be announcing a trend. We can't know for now...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #141 on: July 16, 2011, 02:48:28 AM »
I think the 60-40 probability you use in your tracker pretty much corresponds to the situation. Primary polls are rarely trustworthy, so even if Hollande is leading  by 10-15 points, basically everything can happen.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #142 on: July 20, 2011, 04:04:23 AM »
Anyways, it's fun to see how the numbers keep moving. Let's see if there are other stunning polls this weak. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #143 on: July 22, 2011, 10:01:21 AM »
OK, I know the end of the movie.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #144 on: July 23, 2011, 06:21:28 PM »
I hope I'll be proven wrong, but so far I see all the signs of another "comeback of the hated guy" which are so frequent in France (see Mitterrand '88, Chirac '95 and '02, the right generally in '07).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #145 on: July 25, 2011, 12:19:37 PM »
Ok, my bad. I'm still not reassured, though.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #146 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 PM »
Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 PM
against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

Idiot.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #147 on: July 26, 2011, 02:04:18 PM »
Wow, I expected to see Sarko higher this week. But it's true there has been only one poll...


It will be atrocious to wait until September... Sad
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #148 on: July 27, 2011, 05:47:24 AM »
Fab is right, established parties rarely die out in the French political system. There will always be a support for one of the two big one by people who fear the other could win. Add to that the fact that, after being in opposition for 10 year, the PS dominates as never before the sub-national entities (holding nearly every big city, over 60/100 departements and 21/22 regions ; hell, it might even take the Senate, for the first time ever !).


The point is not whether Umengus supports Breivik or not, I don't see why this was even brought. The point is that his statement is utterly false and only based on nasty rumours.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #149 on: August 03, 2011, 05:58:43 AM »
Wednesday and still no tracker... Shame on you, Fab ! Tongue
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