German Elections & Politics

[EPG]

Franconia is for religio-historic reasons a stronghold of the SPD. Lower Bavaria bordering Austria and the Czechia Republic is a stronghold of the refugee crisis.

[EPG]

In case you didn't know, there are three peculiarities in the Bavarian election system:

Thanks. It looks like a system designed by a dominant party. 1 ensures the direct votes help CSU to top-up list votes. 2 theoretically helps the largest parties most often. 4 rewards parties with ideologically diverse candidates. Even 3, I suppose, gives CSU overhang seats in Franconia.

[EPG]

While the results for the CSU is bad, the SPD on the other hand ... LOL.

-23% for the so-called "Grand" Coalition in Berlin. Nice job. Well done.

Hard luck, you guys who sympathise with the neo-Nazi AfD party only got 11%. It suggests most people in real life do not actually agree with you or the neo-Nazis.

[EPG]

Er... pretty edgy times for FDP, no?!

[EPG]

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

[EPG]

I really don't know what this is about. I defend the CSU and their right to take their line on Muslim immigration, which was extremely high in Germany a few years ago. But it is unambiguous that the main force behind the decline of the SPD was not good ol' boys angry about transgender and pronouns, but a collapse toward the Greens. It's not a surprise that people on this forum are more angry about anti-fascists than neo-Nazis. But come on, recognise reality here that your rise is inciting the rise of forces against you, like the Greens. AfD mainly gained from CSU. Greens mainly gained from SPD. Disregard models you cannot prove or even throw out a window.

[EPG]

I really don't know what this is about. I defend the CSU and their right to take their line on Muslim immigration, which was extremely high in Germany a few years ago. But it is unambiguous that the main force behind the decline of the SPD was not good ol' boys angry about transgender and pronouns, but a collapse toward the Greens. It's not a surprise that people on this forum are more angry about anti-fascists than neo-Nazis. But come on, recognise reality here that your rise is inciting the rise of forces against you, like the Greens. AfD mainly gained from CSU. Greens mainly gained from SPD. Disregard models you cannot prove or even throw out a window.

Net voter flows actually seem to be quite complex:
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bayern-waehlerwanderung-101.html

I don't regard these models as being serious, something I'd bet my house on.

[EPG]

A CSU outperformed the polls
B CSU is superior to CDU because CDU-CSU is polling poorly nationally
If one believes A, shouldn't one be sceptical about B?

[EPG]

If blue-collar workers want to support the AfD, it's not clear what SPD can do to win them back, if those specific blue-collar workers were ever SPD to begin with. Join in saying "Islam does not belong in Germany"? Yet in almost all countries, some blue-collar workers are traditional or radical conservatives.

[EPG]

So no substantive answer, apart from no multiculti, one Volk?