CNN/ORC: Clinton loses edge, Biden stronger

[Mehmentum]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites. 

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

[Mehmentum]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites.  

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

Wow, and that's what many were saying would be Hillary's strength.  What would the map look like with the Democrat only barely losing white voters by 2-4% and only getting 70%ish with minority voters?  

Something like this?

RCP has a nifty calculator for just such a scenario.  Its not good for the GOP.

I set African American turnout and voting to 2004 levels.  I put whites at 52-48 in favor of the Republicans and Latinos at 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

The result is a mirror image of 2008.  Nebraska's 2nd district probably flips too, but the map doesn't show it.

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, the Dakotas, and Montana are all very close.  Bush's home state advantage probably tips Florida into his column.

[Mehmentum]

I checked out a few other polls.  PPP has Biden trailing by 11 with whites (10 points better than Obama in 2012, and 3 points better than Clinton in the poll).  Quinnipiac has Biden trailing by 8 points with whites (compared to Clinton trailing by 14.)

So Biden being stronger with whites looks like a real thing, though this poll is probably an outliar.

[Mehmentum]

Regardless of which party benefits, less racial polarization is definitely a good thing.