South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mackillop

Named for Mary MacKillop, or if you want to be proper Saint Mary of the Cross MacKillop, the first Australian to be canonised as a Catholic saint, who founded the Sisters of St Joseph at Penola. The seat covers the South East of South Australia, stretching from the mouth of the Murray to the outskirts of Mount Gambier, named Victoria before 1993. The seat has been held by the Liberals since 1956, and is one of the safest in the state. Unusually, unlike all other rural electorates Nick Xenophon has never recorded a significant vote in Mackillop, meaning that the seat is completely safe for the Liberals, in contrast to all other rural electorates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mount Gambier

Named after the city it represents, Mount Gambier, which gets it's name from the extinct volcano on the slopes of which the city is located, it was called Gordon between 1993 and 2002. Last won by Labor in 1973 since then the seat has moved increasingly to the right, however the seat is known for its strong independent streak, since 1975 it has been represented by Independents for almost as long as it has been represented by Liberals. The seat looks to be a wildcard, while on paper the Liberals should pick it up with ease, they have a string candidate against a former Liberal who was elected for the first time in 2014 and was expelled over accusations of missapropriation of more than 2$ million dollars in taxpayer's money. However a ReachTEL poll showed him holding his seat with ease, and alternatively this is fertile ground for Nick Xenophon and SA Best could easily come though the middle taking advantage of a divided conservative vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Finiss

Named after B. T. Finniss, South Australia's first premier the seat was called Alexandra before 1993. Finiss and Alexandra have always compromised of the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island (bar 1993 when it was put in Flinders for "equality" purposes). However this round of redistricting has done away with this decades long practice, with Finiss now compromising solely of Victoria Harbour-Goolwa. The seat and it's predecessor have never elected a Labor member and have long been the most reliably Liberal seat in the state, however things look set to change this year, as Finiss recorded Xenophon's third best performance, and with the Liberals position weakened yet further by the retirement of the sitting MP this seat would be one of the most likely SA Best seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mawson

Named for legendary Australian Antarctic explorer Douglas Mawson, the seat of Mawson is the South Australian Bellwether. Since it's establishment in 1970 it has missed the winner only once, in 2002. However the seat contested in 2018 is better described as a totally new seat, as the redrawn seat contains only a third of the current seat, with tow thirds of the seat coming from other seats. These changes flip the Labor margin of 5.6 to a Liberal margin of 3.2. The current seat is a classic outer suburban (or as you Americans say, exurban) electorate, centered on McLaren Vale, the new seat loses all the suburban territory in the north in Noarlunga, and in exchange takes the rural Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island. This redrawing completely changes the character of the seat, turning it from a key marginal to a seat which strongly leans Liberal. This seat was one of Xenophon's best, so SA Best should be a strong challenger to both Labor and Liberal. Despite the dramatic shift to the Liberals however, do not underestimate Labor here as SA Labor should never be underestimated in it's ability to defy harmful redistributions ('10, '14 etc).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Heysen

Named for Hans Heysen, a prominent Australian watercolour landscape artist, the seat is centred on the leafy outer suburbs of the Adelaide Hills. Known as Stirling before 1970 the seat Has never been won by Labor, and bar it's first two elections in '38 and '41 in which it elected an Independent the seat has always voted Liberal or Liberal Country League. The seat is a haven for third parties, with the Democrats almost winning it twice in '97 and '02, and last time the Greens beat Labor for second. Xenophon's only House of Reps seat of Mayo is likewise centred on the Adelaide Hills (though also containing the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island) and which the Democrats likewise almost winning in 1998 and the Greens almost winning in the 2008 by-election.  The seat had Xenophon's best performance, getting a third of the vote before preferences, and SA Best probably has their best or second best chance here.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Kavel

Named for Lutheran pastor August Kavel who established the Lutheran Church of Australia the seat of Kavel is centred Mount Barker, the Adelaide Hills' main town, and the rural areas which lie to the east of the Adelaide Hills. Kavel was one of the Democrats best seats, beating out Labor twice, in the '92 by-election and in '97. Despite this since it's establishment in 1970 the seat has always been a safe blue ribbon Liberal seat, never finding itself under threat. However this seems certain to change as the seat was one of Xenophon's best seats, and with the sitting member retiring it is one of SA Best's best targets.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Morialta

Deriving its name from the Kaurna (the traditional owners of the Adelaide region) word mariyatala, meaning east flowing river. Known as Coles before 2002 over time the seat has moved increasingly rightwards, with the trend continuing this election as the seat itself moves eastward, increasing the Liberal margin. When established Coles was a Labor leaning seat, however since 1973 Labor won it once, only in their 2006 landslide. Xenophon performed well here, his fifth best performance in the state, so if they can beat Labor they have a good chance here.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Newland

Named for pioneer pastoralist Simpson Newland, the seat of Newland is one of four seats the Electoral Commission has flipped on notionals from Labor to Liberal, with the Labor margin of 1.4 flipped to a Liberal margin of 0.1. This is caused by losing suburban Labor territory around Modbury and replacing it with more conservative rural territory to the east. Known as Tea Tree Gully before 1977 the seat has long been a key marginal. The seat is exceptionally close and could go either way, with it being further complicated by the large Xenophon vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

King

Named for Len King, former South Australian Attorney General and Chief Justice of the South Australian Supreme Court is a new seat, which although being treated by the ECSA as the successor to Napier actually draws a majority of its electors from Little Para (renamed Elizabeth) and Wright. The seat is extremely marginal, and without any incumbent member contesting this seat is one of the Liberals best chances of a pickup.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Light

Named for William Light, the first Surveyor-General of South Australia, the seat of Light has long been centred on the town of Gawler. The redistribution has stripped Light of its rural areas in the north of the seat, replacing it with parts of Munno Parra to the south, thus boosting Labor's margin. Before 2002 the seat was a safe Liberal seat having only once been represented by a Labor member in the '40s. However in 2002, when parts of the deprived and overwhelming Labor suburb of Munno Para, making the formerly safe seat marginal. The seat has continued to move left since then, and with the loss of the remaining rural areas in exchange for more of Munno Parra that trend shall continue. The seat remains marginal, though a Liberal gain is unlikely unless the swing is truly on.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Elizabeth

Little Para has been renamed Elizabeth, it's name before 2006, drawing its name form the suburb of Elizabeth. The name change is required as the redistribution stripped Little Para of its more rural areas to the east, and with it Little Para reservoir, of which it drew its name, replacing it with suburbs to the north from Napier. This has strengthened the Labor margin from 7.4 to 9.9. Thus the new seat returns to being fairly safe for Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Taylor

Named for Doris Taylor, the founder of Australian Meals on Wheels, Taylor covers Adelaide's northern fringe on the outskirts of Salisbury. The redistribution has simply swapped which suburbs it takes to the south. The seat has always been a safe Labor seat, and there is no indication of that changing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Ramsay

Named for Alexander Ramsay, the longtime General Manager of the South Australian Housing Trust, the seat of Ramsay has long been one of the safest in the state, with two of its three members serving as Premier (Arnold and Rann). Known as Salisbury before 1985 the seat is, appropriately, centred on Salisbury, and has never elected a Liberal member. The second safest in the state on 2014 Labor is as safe as houses here.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Wright

Named for Edmund Wright, the prominent Adelaide architect who designed Adelaide Town Hall, Wright has long been a semi-marginal Labor seat centred on the outer northeastern suburbs. Created in 1993 taking in much of Briggs the seat was won by the Liberals in its first election in '93, however Labor has won every time since. The redistribution has reorientated the seat to a more east-west arrangement, boosting Labor's margin. Despite the boost to the margin the sitting mp is retiring, which will hurt Labor's chances.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Playford

Named for Thomas Playford IV, who's 26 year reign as premier makes him the longest serving government leader in the history of the Westminster system. The seat however is ironically a safe Labor seat. The seat has been radically redrawn from being based on the angle between Grand Junction and Main North to the angle between Main North and Port Wakefield. In the process the seat has lost three quarters of it's current territory. Despite all this, however, the seats margin barely changes, remaining safe for Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Florey

Named for the pharmacologist Howard Florey, who jointly won the 1945 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for the discovery of penicillin. The seat of Florey has long been centred on Modbury, however the EDBC's redrawing of the northern suburbs has changed that, losing most of the current seat including Modbury itself and taking on the core of Playford. Although this dramatically boosted the Labor margin from 2.5 to 9.2 (at the expense of Newland), this has resulted in an ugly preselection fight. This arose because both faction agreed to secure Playford for former Labor state secretary Michael Brown, leaving the current Playford MP Jack Snelling and current Florey MP Frances Bedford "double-bunked" as you Americans call it. Jack Snelling ultimately prevailed leading to Bedford leaving Labor to run as an Independent, though promising to continue to support Weatherhill and to always vote Labor party line (and if I remember correctly, to continue to take the Labor whip). Jack Snelling later withdrew as the Labor candidate but Frances Bedford declined the invitation to rejoin Labor and become the official Labor candidate, so instead Labor is running senior public servant Rik Morris. Xenophon anounced tacit support for Frances Bedford and withdrew the SA Best candidate. Although this electorate won't affect who's premier, as both contenders will support Labor, it most certainly remains one of the key seats to watch.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Port Adelaide

Named for the Port integral to the electorate's economy, Port Adelaide is one of the safest Labor seats in the state. In 1970 the seat was abolished and became part of neighbouring Semaphore, which was later renamed Hart in 1993, then in 2002 reverted back to its historical name. Throughout all its incarnations, however, the seat remained one of the safest Labor seats in the state, with the only non-Labor member being the Independent Labor member between '79 and '93. The redistribution stripped it of Mawson Lakes in the east, recentering it back on its namesake and the Lefevre Peninsula, remaining safely Labor the entire time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Loving all of your seat profiles! Are you saving Hartley for last?

No, I'm doing it in a roughly geographic manner, Hartley is currently 6th on the list.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Anyone got any predictions/thoughts on what might happen on Saturday? I'll post my final predictions on Friday.

Well firstly I need to get around to doing the other 20ish seat guides, but after that, if I have time, I'll try and do an assessment of, firstly, which seats are definitely safe for each party, then after that an assessment of the marginals of the competitive parties in each and maybe a rating for some of them.
However, if there's one piece of advice I could give it would be this: WATCH HARTLEY. There's been two or three ReachTEL seat polls there and they're all over the place. Hartley will be important in deciding NXT's influence, because, in my mind, if Xenophon isn't in parliament the party will probably fall apart a la Palmer United.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election morning, and it's still not clear who could win.

My question now is will the computers be able to survive the night, or crash our because of how hugely complex this election could be.

I feel so sorry for Antony Green

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Lee

Named for leading South Australian suffragette Mary Lee, the seat of Lee, known as Albert Park before 1993, has been drastically altered by the Electoral Commission, shedding all the solidly Labor territory north of Bower Road and replacing it with marginal territory to the south, considerably weakening Labor's hold on the seat from 4.5 to 1.5 percent, making far closer to the state average than it has ever been. This change makes Lee into a key marginal for this election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Cheltenham

Named for the suburb the seat is centred on, the seat of Cheltenham, known as Price before 2002, after the first Labor premier of South Australia Thomas Price, is one of the safest Labor seats in the state. Currently held by the Premier, Jay Weatherhill, the seat has a long Labor tradition, with Labor never being remotely threatened in the seat, and with no prospect of that changing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Croydon

Named for it's central suburb of Croydon the seat of Croydon, known as Spence before 2002, is currently the safest Labor seat in the state, and has never elected a non-Labor member. The redistribution has shifted the seat northeast, increasing the Labor margin with it. The incumbent member, Michael Atkinson is retiring, and current member of the Legislative Council Peter Malinauskas has been pre-selected to replace him, and will have no trouble doing it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Enfield

Named for the suburb contained within the seat the electorate of Enfield was, between 1970 and 2002, named Ross Smith, making it unique among Australian electoral districts in that its name incorporated the first name of the individual it was named after, groundbreaking Australian aviator Ross Macpherson Smith, the first person to fly from Australia to England. The redistribution has removed areas west of the railway, and replaced them with territory to the east, weakening the Labor by two points from 8.1 to 6.2. The sitting member, Deputy Premier John Rau, however, shouldn't have much trouble holding on given his high profile.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Torrens

Despite its location on the banks of Adelaide's river, the Torrens (Australian towns are obsessed with their rivers, with popular old-fashioned children's word games being naming a town and the other naming that towns river. Yes, we are obsessed with water.) the Electoral Commission is clear that the seat of Torrens is named not for the extraordinarily variable River Torrens, neither for the river's namesake, Robert Torrens, Colonel, Economist, newspaper owner, writer, Irish person and all-round multi tasker, but for his son, also unhelpfully named Robert Torrens, South Australia's third premier, known for the Torrens title system of land registration (woo-hoo, how exciting), which was later adopted as the universal land registration system of the Commonwealth, and thus is also known today as the English system. Isn't Property Law exciting (no, it isn't). The seat was divided between Gilles (not Giles) and Todd between 1985 and 1993. Under the Playmander the seat was one of the few Liberal Country League seats in Adelaide, however the seat has shifted leftwards over time, with the Liberals last winning it at their 1993 landslide, only to lose it a year later at a by-election triggered by the death of the sitting member, giving Labor enough members to field a cricket team. The seat remains semi-marginal, however the time doesn't seem right for the Liberals.