Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[VPH]

Just in general how come most of Quebec City except the core area is fairly conservative compared to the rest of the province?

A number of reasons. I blame much of it on conservative talk radio, backlash against what they see as Montreal domination of the province, higher religiosity, less diversity.

[VPH]

What I find fascinating is the ethnic issue divide on religion. With QS, the PQ, and CAQ all opposing allowing head coverings for officers, it's clear that their reasoning is not quite the same. QS and to an extent PQ seem more interested in Laicite, like in France. CAQ, because of some of their proposals like the values test, seem a bit more interested in isolating Quebec from immigration.

[VPH]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

Also, apparently, Couillard is in danger in Roberval.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1115515/sondage-recherche-mainstreet-liberal-coalition-avenir-quebec

CAQ (No candidate announced for the riding yes) - 29%
Couillard - 27%
PQ - 11%
QS -6%

I know Roberval is a special case considering Couillard is the PM, but if the PQ is really polling around 10% in freaking Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean of all places, they really are in bigger trouble than I thought.

Would be curious to see how Gaudreault is doing in Jonquière.

Isn't that basically the PQ base region? Working class small town Quebec?

[VPH]

Went to the Congrès des Jeunes Libéraux today! The Liberals have such a well-organized youth wing it's insane. Youth also are guaranteed just about 1/3 of everything in the party, so they end up better off than youth wings of any other party.

10 different resolutions were passed, including one calling for an end to sales of gasoline only cars by 2040, one pushing for immigrants to settle in rural areas with job openings, one asking the government to promote autonomous public transit, one encouraging healthier eating, and one seeking to develop a provincial strategy for mental health on campus. This last one is similar to a motion that in the past brought about a strategy for addressing sexual assault on campus.

[VPH]

There's no question that Quebec is more nationalistic and hostile to immigration (especially Muslim immigration) than other provinces. However, as much as this may seem like social conservatism, it isn't indicative of an overall more conservative province. Here is the major paradox of Quebec politics. Quebec is liberal on issues like abortion and gay marriage, even more so than the rest of Canada. However, Quebec has lower levels of religious disaffiliation than other provinces but also far lower church attendance. This is a function of the Silent Revolution of the 1960s, in which a clerical, corporatist province rapidly secularized, leaving some vestiges of its old past. Quebec is still somewhat wrapped up in Catholic identity without embodying Catholic socially conservative politics. This is visible in debates over things like the cross in the National Assembly, which was supported by those who wanted to get rid of public religious symbolism on employees. (http://www.pewforum.org/2013/06/27/canadas-changing-religious-landscape/)

[VPH]

Are there any large segments of younger people that are nationalist? Or at least the PQ? Not a fan of PQ, just curious.

Quebec Solidaire's base tends to be younger, and they're a separatist party who uses Quebec nationalism, but not xenophobia, as a means to achieve a socialist Quebec. Especially since absorbing Option Nationale, they have become more nationalist in terms of leaving Canada.

[VPH]

Interesting poll out today that challenges some assumptions, including my own. Among those aged 18-34, the polling breakdown is:
35% PLQ
26% CAQ
16% PQ
9% PVQ
8% QS
6% Other

I don't have any way to explain that inflated Green %. Maybe NDPQ wasn't polled so Anglos picked PVQ here? PVQ is a massive joke, so to see them leading QS among youth is strange to me. Heck, one of QS' most prominent MNAs is Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, who less than a decade ago was the ringleader of the student protest movement. Guess young people here aren't all that radical.


https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-liberals-drawing-more-youth-vote-than-other-parties-poll-says?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1535488099

[VPH]

CAQ is promising free daycare in the province by 2023. Seems to me like a more economically populist move to gain voters from the PQ, which has actually gained a few points in the last weeks.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/09/12/5000-classes-a-ajouter-pour-la-caq

[VPH]

Went to the Westmount St-Louis debate last night. It was predictably a hot mess, because this is a 70%+ PLQ seat so the candidates from other parties are eccentric.
-The Green candidate is an anarchist and military veteran and said that the PLQ would win, leading everybody else to freak out. He also voted Parti Nul last election.

-The CAQ candidate got asked a question by a student journalist about whether she would support separating families, and she kept flubbing it and the student kept pushing. Afterwards, the candidate's mom, who was in the audience, went after the reporter asking why there was an external media person (despite the fact that he is a McGill student). Not a good debate for her. Not a great candidate.

-The PCQ candidate was funny and kept drawing his tax plans on the chalkboard despite the moderators continuously telling him "no props". Other candidates were laughing and rolling their eyes, and the CAQ candidate suggested he be kicked out.

-PLQ candidate was the only serious one.

[VPH]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1046515777333915648

I hope they are overestimating the CAQ. I don't think I can bear the thought of 4 years of a CAQ majority.

Oh God I hope this doesn't happen. Rn I think it'll be a CAQ minority.

[VPH]

Wish I could give a dispatch on the ground, but I'm volunteering with David Birnbaum, who will win 80%+ of the vote (most PLQ riding in the whole province). The mood here is a restrained optimism about the overall result, which is interesting...

[VPH]

D'Arcy-McGee also being a bubble within the Montreal bubble.

Hence what I mean by not having a good read on the ground. I live in a QS stronghold (Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques) and spent my day in the place where it's weird and crazy rare not to be PLQ. Will be at the PLQ party, which is held at New City Gas, a huge venue/club in Griffintown.

[VPH]

A few conscriptions I will be watching closely tonight:

Rosemont: Located in the middle of Montreal, this riding is a QS-PQ tossup. PQ leader Jean-Francois Lisee is the incumbent; his loss would spell certain doom for the PQ. Honestly, this riding will tell us about how much leftist QS has surged in Montreal and how PQ has tanked.

Pointe-Aux-Trembles & Bourget: Can CAQ break through on the Island of Montreal? East end has always been one of their stronger places in MTL-heavily Francophone, working-middle class, suburban. Used to be the most nationalist area in town too. These will both be close, unless the floor totally falls out on the PQ.

Sherbrooke: Did somebody say... FOUR-WAY TOSSUP??? Sherbrooke is a small city downtown riding in Estrie with a large university population. This is Jean Charest's old riding, and it's demographically a mix. A good bellwether for who is surging tonight. Lots of students, some Anglophones, a decent professional community.

Jean-Lesage: Downtown Quebec City. One of a few real 3-way races in the province. Currently held by the PLQ, QS saw an opportunity here nominating former Option Nationale (newly merged into QS) leader Sol Zanetti. Can the PLQ hang onto more than one seat in Quebec City? Will QS be able to win Taschereau and Jean-Lesage? Will CAQ pick up this urban riding?

Jonquière: This industrial part of Saguenay used to be a hub for nationalism. 71% voted to separate in 1995. Nowadays, with an economy transitioning to tech/energy industry, separation has faded as an issue and people are more concerned with growing business. This is a PQ/CAQ tossup to keep an eye on. It's similar to a number of other ridings up north.

Orford: Rural riding straddling the American border. PLQ has historically done well here, but the Anglo population continues to decline and this region is where CAQ support has grown. Older population, an economy based on tourism and ag, never really nationalist. Gonna be similar to a few of the other US border ridings. Maybe the supply management issue will have an impact here.

Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue: Rural mining area that historically fluctuated between PQ and PLQ. Strangely looks like it could be in play for PQ, CAQ, and QS. QS membership numbers tripled here in the last few weeks, and their exciting young candidate could gain traction. This might be QS' only good performance in a rural riding. Will show the decline of the PLQ in many rural Franco areas too.

Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata & Côte-du-Sud: Two manufacturing and ag-based ridings who have faced workforce shortages. Immigration is a weird, nuanced topic in these areas. CAQ and PLQ will throw down here and the results will be telling of what the final result will be. If CAQ is cruising to a majority, I expect them to win both of these. If a minority, it will be close.

The kinda wild card is whether NAFTA talks will impact the vote. Saw a report earlier on CTV that 18% of eligible voters turned out early, and they interviewed a few people in one of the US border ridings with a high dairy concentration and most people didn't care. Obviously anecdotal.

[VPH]

D'Arcy-McGee also being a bubble within the Montreal bubble.

Hence what I mean by not having a good read on the ground. I live in a QS stronghold (Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques) and spent my day in the place where it's weird and crazy rare not to be PLQ. Will be at the PLQ party, which is held at New City Gas, a huge venue/club in Griffintown.

Why did you volunteer in a safe seat when there are contested ones nearby?

I personally know David Birnbaum and was asked to help out! Thing is, Laurier-Dorion and maybe maybe Maurice Richard aside there aren’t too many ridings on the island where the PLQ is in a competitive race. And I didn’t feel like going out to Laval.

[VPH]

A few quick observations:

1. QS really overperformed. They're less than 2% away from winning Bourget, which wasn't even on the map for them. They won two Quebec seats, Sherbrooke, and are leading in Rouyn-Noranda. QS blew the PLQ out of the water in "tossup" Laurier-Dorion. Wow.

2. PLQ performance in rural Quebec was absolutely brutal. Finishing 4th in some of these ridings.

3. Matane-Matapedia. What the hell?

[VPH]

What stuns me is how well QS did in Bourget. That's something I just can't quite get through my head. I have family who lives in the area, and I spend lots of time in the neighborhood. I guess I can kinda see it in some of the younger professionals relocating out there, but it remains a much older, working-middle class area. Lots of Maghrebi immigrants too.