BREAKING: Catalonia Declares Independence

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Looks like not even Andorra is recognizing Catalonia: https://twitter.com/GovernAndorra/status/923977972155109376

I wonder if there'll be any recognition, even from fellow unrecognized countries.

[TheSaint250]

Looks like not even Andorra is recognizing Catalonia: https://twitter.com/GovernAndorra/status/923977972155109376

I wonder if there'll be any recognition, even from fellow unrecognized countries.

I think South Ossetia sent a delegate there or something.

EDIT: South Ossetia's leadership will be considering recognition

[jaichind]

Poll Shows Catalan Secessionists Losing Majority, EL Mundo Says
By Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll shows Catalan secessionists losing majority in regional parliament, El Mundo reports.
Pro-independence bloc including ERC, PDeCAT, CUP parties would win 65 seats in regional assembly, short of the 68 seats needed for majority, newspaper says, citing results of poll by Sigma Dos
Ciudadanos would win 26-28 seats, PSC 20-22 seats, CSQP 13 seats, PP 10-12 seats: El Mundo; newspaper doesn’t provide technical details of poll in online version of story
NOTE: Secessionist bloc won 72 seats in 2015 elections

[TheSaint250]

Poll Shows Catalan Secessionists Losing Majority, EL Mundo Says
By Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll shows Catalan secessionists losing majority in regional parliament, El Mundo reports.
Pro-independence bloc including ERC, PDeCAT, CUP parties would win 65 seats in regional assembly, short of the 68 seats needed for majority, newspaper says, citing results of poll by Sigma Dos
Ciudadanos would win 26-28 seats, PSC 20-22 seats, CSQP 13 seats, PP 10-12 seats: El Mundo; newspaper doesn’t provide technical details of poll in online version of story
NOTE: Secessionist bloc won 72 seats in 2015 elections

How much power does the de facto independent government have right now?

[jaichind]

Poll Shows Catalan Secessionists Losing Majority, EL Mundo Says
By Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll shows Catalan secessionists losing majority in regional parliament, El Mundo reports.
Pro-independence bloc including ERC, PDeCAT, CUP parties would win 65 seats in regional assembly, short of the 68 seats needed for majority, newspaper says, citing results of poll by Sigma Dos
Ciudadanos would win 26-28 seats, PSC 20-22 seats, CSQP 13 seats, PP 10-12 seats: El Mundo; newspaper doesn’t provide technical details of poll in online version of story
NOTE: Secessionist bloc won 72 seats in 2015 elections

This poll is from 23–26 Oct 2017.  I wonder what the events of 10/27 would have on the polls.

[jaichind]

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/10/28/actualidad/1509189971_913953.html

El Pais poll indicate that

More Catalans (52% to 43%) are in favour of the dissolution of the regional parliament and the holding of elections.

55% cent of Catalan respondents opposed the declaration of independence, with 41% in favor.

[wxtransit]

Looks like not even Andorra is recognizing Catalonia: https://twitter.com/GovernAndorra/status/923977972155109376

The question now seems to be less of who won't recognize Catalonia, but who will.

[CatoMinor]

If the separatists and/or unionists become radicalized I wonder how easily this could devolve into acts of terrorism between unionists and separatists.   

[Figueira]

Looks like not even Andorra is recognizing Catalonia: https://twitter.com/GovernAndorra/status/923977972155109376

The question now seems to be less of who won't recognize Catalonia, but who will.

Kind of goes without saying?

[Helsinkian]

Apparently the CUP is going to boycott the December election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/catalonia-independence-madrid-elections-rajoy

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's pretty clear the "Catalan Republic" won't hold on as an entity, so I wouldn't hold my breath for any actual recognition.

Rajoy actually seems to be smarter one now. A hasty, unilateral declaration did undercut separatists' support, while Puigdemont seems to have little to none room for maneuvering.

[Tirnam]

Despite all the downsides of the independence's showdown since the referendum (the impact on the economy, no international support, ...) the separatists are still very close to retain the control the Parliament.
Maybe Madrid is in a more comfortable position, but it's fragile. If there is a pacific resistance against Madrid in the Catalonian administration, how Madrid will react to impose its decisions? They can't use force, that could potentially backfire. Any strong measure against the secessionists could create sympathy for the secessionist movement (I believe the secessionists leaders hope for that, to play the victims of an arbitrary central power).

And if the secessionists decide to boycott the election, could the pro-independence mayors refuse to organize the elections?

[parochial boy]

Apparently the CUP is going to boycott the December election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/catalonia-independence-madrid-elections-rajoy

Both sides seem hell bent on refusing to give the Catalan people any say in this.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Apparently the CUP is going to boycott the December election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/catalonia-independence-madrid-elections-rajoy

What?!? That's the stupidest thing the nationalists could possibly do in this situation.

[jaichind]

Apparently the CUP is going to boycott the December election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/catalonia-independence-madrid-elections-rajoy

What?!? That's the stupidest thing the nationalists could possibly do in this situation.

I think they suspect they will lose the vote.  They can always point to this boycott as "proof" that the upcoming election victory by the unionists does not represent the true will of the population of Catalonia. 

[Former President tack50]

Apparently the CUP is going to boycott the December election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/catalonia-independence-madrid-elections-rajoy

What?!? That's the stupidest thing the nationalists could possibly do in this situation.

To be fair it's CUP, they are the far left radicals. I expect the mainstream secessionists (PDECat and ERC) to run in the election.

[jaichind]

Apparently the CUP is going to boycott the December election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/catalonia-independence-madrid-elections-rajoy

What?!? That's the stupidest thing the nationalists could possibly do in this situation.

To be fair it's CUP, they are the far left radicals. I expect the mainstream secessionists (PDECat and ERC) to run in the election.

Yes, but back in 2015 CUP got 8.21% of the vote and 10 seats and currently polling around 6%-7%.  If CUP does not run and even if some of the CUP vote goes to other secessionists, as long as enough CUP voters stay home rather than vote for a the Center and Center-Right secessionists this is a victory for the Unionists for sure. 

[The Free North]

I understand the historical differences between the two and obviously there are some small economic grievances, but doesnt anyone else feel that Catalonia lacks a decent 'casus belli' if you will here?

For example, consider the Kurds push for sovereignty. They remain the worlds largest 'nation without a nation' and the language, culture, and people have been severely marginalized to the point of near genocide (Saddam) and have been ruthless suppressed in Turkey as well. Consider the situation in Tibet as well and all the Tibetan people have gone through over the past 100 years While their struggles dont necessarily prevent Catalonia from having a just reason to be independent, I just feel their cause is a little weaker than its perceived to be. Yes Franco sucked, yes there was a time when the Spanish government wanted everything Catalan gone, but in context that was no different than what happened to Breton or Occitan in France or other minority languages in the British Isles. Perhaps the Catalan example was a bit more extreme, but the government today has already made huge autonomy concessions to Catalonia and the days of the Catalan language being actively stomped out are gone.

Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.

[kelestian]

Apparently the CUP is going to boycott the December election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/catalonia-independence-madrid-elections-rajoy

What?!? That's the stupidest thing the nationalists could possibly do in this situation.

They have declared independence, so this election will be illegal for secessionists

[jaichind]

Spain's foreign minister says Catalonia's deposed leader would be eligible to run in the regional election called by the central government on Dec. 21, provided he hasn't been imprisoned by then.
Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis told The Associated Press in an interview in Madrid that Carles Puigdemont's pro-independence party could "theoretically" put him up as a candidate "if he is not put in jail at that time."
Puigdemont could face criminal charges for his role in the separatist movement that culminated in the Catalan parliament declaring an independent republic on Friday.

[Helsinkian]

How about, as a compromise, a Principality of Catalonia in personal union with the Kingdom of Spain? They would share the monarch, the military and foreign policy but otherwise Catalonia would be independent. Would that be acceptable to either of the sides?

[Former President tack50]

How about, as a compromise, a Principality of Catalonia in personal union with the Kingdom of Spain? They would share the monarch, the military and foreign policy but otherwise Catalonia would be independent. Would that be acceptable to either of the sides?

The Basque Country tried to go for something similar, and arguably less ambitious in the mid 00s and it failed spectacularly. Their plan was basically that, become a "free associated state", where Spain would control the military, foreign policy and not much else.

Their plan was rejected in the Spanish congress 23-313, with only nationalists voting in favour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibarretxe_Plan

And regardless, it was unconstitutional. An Ibarretxe Plan reboot would probably make no one happy. Spain becoming a federation, either symmetrical like the US or assymetrical like Russia (on paper) are commonly cited options though, but they are less ambitious and give the federal government slightly more powers than what you propose.

[wxtransit]

It honestly seems that the independence bid is failing spectacularly, or at least from what I see, as the police force will take complete neutrality and there is a relatively-sized anti-independence march in Barcelona (but for all I know, these people could be bussed in from Madrid ). If the Catalan police force is not at least 60-70% willing to stand for independence, then that would be a gaping hole in Catalonia's defenses if Spain chooses to swoop in. Also, it seems that lately Rajoy has tried to pull the "good guy" card, as it seems he has tried to soften his stance ever so slightly in the past day or so. I could be wrong, however.

Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.

[jaichind]

It honestly seems that the independence bid is failing spectacularly, or at least from what I see, as the police force will take complete neutrality and there is a relatively-sized anti-independence march in Barcelona (but for all I know, these people could be bussed in from Madrid ). If the Catalan police force is not at least 60-70% willing to stand for independence, then that would be a gaping hole in Catalonia's defenses if Spain chooses to swoop in. Also, it seems that lately Rajoy has tried to pull the "good guy" card, as it seems he has tried to soften his stance ever so slightly in the past day or so. I could be wrong, however.

Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.

Seems that way to me as well.  The Spanish police are entrenched inside Catalonia.  What would be decisive is if they order the local Catalonia police to act against the secessionist leaders and arrest, would the local Catalonia police fall in line.   It seems to me that this will be a serious of self-reinforcing trends.  The more likely the Catalonia push for independence if failing the more likely the local Catalonia police will fall in line (they have to consider who will be sending them their paychecks) which makes it more likely the independence bid will fail and fall flat on its face.

It seems Rajoy play this very well and is coming out roses for him.

[Kingpoleon]

It's pretty clear the "Catalan Republic" won't hold on as an entity, so I wouldn't hold my breath for any actual recognition.

Rajoy actually seems to be smarter one now. A hasty, unilateral declaration did undercut separatists' support, while Puigdemont seems to have little to none room for maneuvering.

Rajoy still doesn’t seem too smart to me. If he had allowed the King to give a speech calling for unity and promising self-determination for Catalonia, there would be no danger of any real violence.