AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Cactus Jack]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

Ask and you shall receive.  PPP has Flake at 18/62 approval/disapproval, and losing to a generic D 31/47.  They also have Trump's approval at 44/53.  The poll was conducted July 31-August 1 among 704 Arizona voters.  http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PPP-Poll-Arizona.pdf

That approval sounds about right. Flake is, without exemption, one of the most useless piles of cartilage in the Senate, and his recent votes have just thrown that into perspective.

Man, we really do need to run Stanton. He's just about the physical embodiment of Generic D.

[Cactus Jack]

Arizona's GOP governor to skip Trump rally

100% transparently insincere, but also smart. Ducey understands that the last thing he needs, going into a reelection campaign, is ammunition directly tying him to Trump.

[Cactus Jack]

If Trump actually pardons Arpaio tomorrow, it'll probably end Flake's GE chances and absolutely destroy Ward's.

[Cactus Jack]

If Trump actually pardons Arpaio tomorrow, it'll probably end Flake's GE chances and absolutely destroy Ward's.

He will likely pardon Arpaio. Does this mean that if Flake wins his primary, he is DOA and loses to Sinema?

Not necessarily DOA, but he's going to be in an awful position. Flake is already a poor incumbent and an even worse campaigner, running during a bad year in increasingly friendly territory for the Democrats. If Trump pardons Arpaio, Flake is going to be in a no-win situation: back the increasingly-nuclear president and fend off Ward while alienating swing voters? Or go against the Don and risk losing the primary, and thus the seat, to Kelli the Kook?

At this point, I think I'm finally ready to rate the race: Tossup between Flake and Sinema, Tilt D between Flake and Stanton, and Likely D between Ward and literally anyone.

[Cactus Jack]

There is no chance Sinema can win. She has way too much baggage.

You say that as though her opponent isn't likely going to be a lady who is two steps away, at the absolute most, from actually wearing a tinfoil hat.

[Cactus Jack]

Why is Flake so unpopular? Because he's too liberal or because he's too Trump-ish?

He has an amazing way of coming across as insincere to literally every voter bloc in the state, and his vehemence in opposing Trump hasn't made him any friends among the Schweikert and Arpaio types.

[Cactus Jack]

After today, Ward is deader than ever.

[Cactus Jack]

If it's Ward v. Sinema, as much as I hate to give my (symbolic) endorsement to an atheist, I have to go with Sinema. There are simply no circumstances where it is safe to let Chemtrail Kelli into the Senate.

I often find myself very deeply questioning your logic, Wulf, but in this I proudly welcome you to Convoy Kyrsten.

Also, as an Arizonan, I can completely confirm the analysis in this thread: Flake's career is over, this seat is probably ours, and I'm finally willing to give up my Representative for the sake of taking it. I just hope Stanton jumps in to claim her seat when she makes the announcement.

[Cactus Jack]

If Jeff DeWit or Trent Franks runs, could Flake win the primary?

A Trumpist rift would only help his numbers, so it's feasible. It still wouldn't change his fate, since a primary bloodbath will only leave him weaker than ever when he goes up against Sinema.

Politically, at this point, Jeff Flake is a dead man.

[Cactus Jack]

If it's Ward v. Sinema, as much as I hate to give my (symbolic) endorsement to an atheist, I have to go with Sinema. There are simply no circumstances where it is safe to let Chemtrail Kelli into the Senate.

I often find myself very deeply questioning your logic, Wulf, but in this I proudly welcome you to Convoy Kyrsten.

Also, as an Arizonan, I can completely confirm the analysis in this thread: Flake's career is over, this seat is probably ours, and I'm finally willing to give up my Representative for the sake of taking it. I just hope Stanton jumps in to claim her seat when she makes the announcement.

Is it better to have Stanton run for Sinema's seat or for Governor?

Ducey, most likely, isn't going to go down even in an AZ-DEM banner year. His governorship has been less than stellar, but he hasn't been outwardly offensive and he's dodged the Trump bullet a lot more expertly than Flake. Right now, our best bet is to run Stanton for Sinema's seat and then springboard him into McCain's when it (sadly) inevitably opens up.

Honestly, our best shot at AZ-GOV is probably going to be running Penzone in 2022.

[Cactus Jack]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

[Cactus Jack]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

At this point, he's our best bet. He's way to the left of Sinema, but he has charisma, he's baggage-free at this point, and he'd mobilize the Latino base. More importantly, if McCain's seat opens up, the Republican primary for it is going to be an absolute warzone, which can only end badly for whoever comes out of it.

[Cactus Jack]

it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

All at once, I stand corrected. We need to run Stanton for Governor and make Ducey pay for that one every opportunity we get.

What about the likely Class 3 special election in 2018 or 2020. Should Gallego run?

It's extraordinarily disrespectful to predict the death of a United States Senator. Enough said.

I don't think so, and I say that as someone with a grudging respect for McCain. His situation is vastly different from, say, that of Steve Scalise. McCain's diagnosis was a tragedy, but the outcome of it is all but guaranteed, and I don't think we're doing anything particularly wrong by preparing for the future. You forget that there's also a distinct possibility that he vacates to focus on fighting the cancer.

[Cactus Jack]

Scalise had a notable chance of dying, just as McCain does. Scalise received massive prayers from all sides and even when he was in critical condition there was no speculation of who would replace him should he pass away. But now because it's McCain, whose seat would be potentially winnable, left and left-leaning people are almost begging him to die. It really shows how terribly polarized our country is.

The only people I've seen wishing death on McCain have been fanatics on both sides. I don't want him to die, least of all to something as awful as brain cancer, but his long-term situation is dire. Scalise's shooting was appreciably different; he was the victim of a random, horribly senseless act of violence, and he rightly received support during his time of need. Meanwhile, John McCain is the victim of his own body and frankly godawful cosmic misfortune - and, since I feel this ought to be emphasized, he has also rightly received support on both sides of the aisle.

But the hub of the matter is this: there was always a chance, if a fairly murky one, that Scalise would pull through. For McCain, his age and the nature of his diagnosis mean that that opening is hugely narrower. I'm not saying that a special election within the next two years is guaranteed, but it's very likely. Also, as ERM has already said, there's a very good chance that McCain just leaves the seat to focus on his treatment, which is what I would want for him anyway. He's earned the rest.

[Cactus Jack]

Arpaio, 85, hints at run for office: 'I've got a big political message to get out'

oh sweet jesus

[Cactus Jack]

Can Joe Arpaio PLEASE run for senate? It would be a slam dunk for Sinema.

Can Donald Trump PLEASE run for president? It would be a slam dunk for Hillary.

You underestimate how much Arizonans loathe Joe Arpaio. Trump had a narrow window to victory and managed to slide through; as an Arizonan, I can very confidently promise you that the walking political Chernobyl that is Joe Arpaio does not.

[Cactus Jack]

YYUUUGGGEE if true

Schumer tells Sinema he's backing her in Ariz. Senate race

Strike up the starting pistols, folks. It's on.

[Cactus Jack]

HAIL TO THE QUEEN

[Cactus Jack]

So Flake set up this: http://www.socialistsinema.com

In no way at all is that going to backfire, because Flake definitely has political instincts better than those of a lobster.

[Cactus Jack]

What are the chances McCain endorses Sinema?

Not insignificant if Ward wins the primary. McCain has dedicated the last of his days to making Trump's life miserable in any way he can.

[Cactus Jack]

I give her in the range of 50%-60%, which is colossally better than most Arizona Democrats. We're not to the point of tilting Democratic, but 2017 is a perfect storm; Sinema is a good candidate with minimal relevant baggage in today's climate (least of all when compared to Chemtrail Kelli) and both of her potential opponents are absolutely dire candidates.

[Cactus Jack]

Sorry for asking such an #analysis-sounding question, but will Sinema's far-left past be a problem? Was it a problem in 2012 when she won her House seat?

God knows Vern Parker tried to make it into one (bear in mind that this was when Arizona was still buying hard into the socialist-hating Tea Party thing), but it didn't stick. It'll be even less relevant now, what with Sinema having proven to be a fairly hard-and-fast Blue Dog in Congress and Ward, Sinema's likeliest opponent by my estimation, being in absolutely no place to accuse someone else of extremism.

[Cactus Jack]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

If those numbers play out, Flake is even deader than I thought he was.

[Cactus Jack]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

LOL @ Sinema getting 39% of Republicans. GCS continues to be a joke.

Maybe, but if that poll is within even 10% of being correct, then Flake's career is still over.

[Cactus Jack]

While I still think Napolitano or Giffords would be a stronger candidate, I'd give Sinema a 50/50 shot.

More like 60/40 since Ward will probably be the nominee.

If Ward is the nominee, it's 70-30 at least imo.

Is Ward really that disliked? I don't know much about her

Pretty much. She's kinda like Christine O'Donnell (Delaware, 2008 & 2010) and Sharron Angle (Nevada, 2010), all Tea Partiers.

Basically this. Ward is absolutely loathed statewide and has a reputation for being a decorated officer of the tinfoil hat brigade.