Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Јas]

RESULT
Wicklow: 60.88% - 39.12%

41/43 constituencies declared

Awaiting:
Carlow-Kilkenny and Laois-Offaly

[Јas]

Oh dear...

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http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,15987594,00.html

[Јas]

RESULTS
Laois-Offaly: 59.64% - 40.36%
Carlow-Kilkenny: 63.29% - 36.71%

[patrick1]

Oh dear...

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http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,15987594,00.html

Haha,  I think Enda would answer to any name that a German wants to call him. And if his surname was actually Kennedy they may even pay attention to him.

As for the vote, there is nothing really surprising. Perhaps a stronger yes vote in several constituencies than I would have thought.  One more rubber stamp for the loss of more sovereignty- although sadly some technocrat in Brussels will probably do a better job at governing....

[Јas]

NATIONAL RESULT

Electorate	3,144,828
Votes Cast	1,591,385	50.6%
Invalid Votes	7,206
Valid Votes	1,584,179
YES	955,091	60.29%
NO	629,088	39.71%

[ObserverIE]

Highest Yes:

Dublin South 75.84
Dún Laoghaire 74.21
Dublin South East 72.30
Mayo 67.30
Cork South West 66.27
Limerick (County) 66.10
Clare 65.73
Cork North West 65.59
Tipperary North 65.58
Kildare North 65.28

Upper middle class Dublin monopolises the top three places, followed by the Enda-worshippers, five overwhelmingly rural Munster constituencies (farming incomes have been doing well over the last couple of years) and middle-class silicon-powered exurbia.

Highest No:

Donegal North East 55.63
Donegal South West 54.95
Dublin North West 53.24
Dublin South Central 50.90
Dublin South West 50.70
Dublin Mid West 49.99
Cork North Central 48.00
Louth 47.25
Dublin Central 46.47
Meath West 43.42

Alienated Donegal followed by two heavily working-class suburban Dublin city constituencies, two banlieue constituencies in Dublin county, the working-class side of Cork city, a mainly urban and peripheral Leinster county, inner-city Dublin, and the more rural and relatively less exurbified end of Meath. (Nine of the ten elected Sinn Féin TDs last year, and the only one which didn't will rectify its omission next time round.)

[argentarius]

Looks like I got my constituency prediction spot on. I'm a little disappointed by the result, but I wasn't really that interested.

[ObserverIE]

I slightly underestimated the turnout but overestimated the Yes vote.

Not surprised at Dublin South topping the list of Yes votes; it doesn't have as much of a working-class presence as the other two do, and it's mainly 40s-00s semi-d or detached suburbia which doesn't lend itself to boboism in the way that terraced housing (Rathmines, Ranelagh, South Circular Road in Dublin SE, the town centres in Dún L) does.

Surprisingly high Yes vote in Roscommon-South Leitrim which I'd have thought might have been more disenchanted; surprisingly high No vote in Dublin North (Claire Daly?) and Wicklow.

[patrick1]

Given the overall tally, I'm kind of surprised that Leix-Offaly was very slightly below the national average. From my general perception I'd think it would have been around the 62-63% level.  
Small number of dissatisfied commuters or holders of vacant properties?

[ObserverIE]

Given the overall tally, I'm kind of surprised that Leix-Offaly was very slightly below the national average. From my general perception I'd think it would have been around the 62-63% level.  
Small number of dissatisfied commuters or holders of vacant properties?

Much more straightforward; it's the reverse of Mayo's Enda-worship. Biffo Cowen is no longer Taoiseach so his constituents feel no need for loyalty.

[patrick1]

Given the overall tally, I'm kind of surprised that Leix-Offaly was very slightly below the national average. From my general perception I'd think it would have been around the 62-63% level.  
Small number of dissatisfied commuters or holders of vacant properties?

Much more straightforward; it's the reverse of Mayo's Enda-worship. Biffo Cowen is no longer Taoiseach so his constituents feel no need for loyalty.

Yeah, I thought that could have something to do with it but the Kings and Queens are still rural right? The scare tactics seem to work well on the muckers...

[ObserverIE]

Given the overall tally, I'm kind of surprised that Leix-Offaly was very slightly below the national average. From my general perception I'd think it would have been around the 62-63% level.  
Small number of dissatisfied commuters or holders of vacant properties?

Much more straightforward; it's the reverse of Mayo's Enda-worship. Biffo Cowen is no longer Taoiseach so his constituents feel no need for loyalty.

Yeah, I thought that could have something to do with it but the Kings and Queens are still rural right? The scare tactics seem to work well on the muckers...

Up to a point. You have the outer fringes of Dublin commuterdom in places like Edenderry, Portarlington and Portlaoise (population up 40% in the space of 5 years to 20,000) which have rail and motorway connections to Dublin, and the population of Laois was the fastest-growing of any county at the last census.

The Yes campaign didn't do especially well in the midlands: Cavan-Monaghan, Meath West and Kildare South were well below the national average and Longford-Westmeath was just under it. The really "enthusiastic" rural areas were further south.

[ObserverIE]

Negative Equity CentralMeath East by-election likely to be on March 27th.

Selected so far:

Thomas Byrne (FF - TD for the constituency between 2007 and 2011 and currently a Senator.)
Darren O'Rourke (SF - personal assistant to a SF TD, no electoral experience that I'm aware of.)
Seán Ó Buachalla (GP - stood at last two general elections here, obtaining 1.08% of the vote in 2011, finishing last of the nine candidates.)
Séamus McDonagh (WP - stood in Meath West at the 2011 general election and obtained 0.47%, finishing last of the thirteen candidates. The WP are the rump of old Sinn Féin who remained in the party after the fall of the Berlin Wall when almost all their then-TDs decamped on a rightward journey that has ended with them constituting the abject FG mudguard wing of the Labour Party. The rump's political stance is slightly, but only slightly, less Stalinist than the KKE.)

[ObserverIE]

Two more candidates:

Ben Gilroy (Direct Democracy Ireland)
Helen McEntee (FG - Fine Gael prove their opposition to business-as-usual politics by unanimously nominating the daughter of the former TD as the by-election candidate.)

Labour have still to nominate their sacrificial lamb tomorrow night.

[ObserverIE]

And so from facts to (science-)fiction:
the current Jas super-guestimate* for the First Preference Vote for the by-election bist...

Fine Gael	33
Fianna Fáil	32
Sinn Féin	20
Labour	12
Green	1
Workers'	1
Direct Democracy	1

Ms McEntee gets the coveted Jas favourite tag in this by-election which really doesn't matter much at all.
 
Feel free to add your own predictions so that together after the election we can discuss where the voters went wrong in not living up to our expectations.

A bit low for SF, waaaaay too high for Labour.

I'd expect SF to be up around 25 in the absence of any non-tinfoil-hatted, non-Stalinist protest alternative. Labour seem to be avoiding making an effort and are probably looking at mid single figures.

[minionofmidas]

Ms McEntee gets the coveted Jas favourite tag in this by-election which really doesn't matter much at all.

Yes! Jinx her with all your might!

[ObserverIE]

Ms McEntee gets the coveted Jas favourite tag in this by-election which really doesn't matter much at all.

Yes! Jinx her with all your might!

Not at all manipulative video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfrYiqfeRg4

[ObserverIE]

Labour finally select a candidate: Eoin Holmes, a county councillor since 2007.

Statistical profile of the constituency at:

http://census.cso.ie/sapmap2011/Results.aspx?Geog_Type=DC&Geog_Code=35

[ObserverIE]

Full list of nominations at:

http://www.meathreturningofficer.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=64&Itemid=68

Keddy and Tallon are perennial candidates. There's no information about Martin.

O'Brien seems to be a letter writer to the local paper who had an abortive career as a Labour local election candidate in Roscommon in 2009 and an earlier terminated career as a Labour councillor in Scotland.

[Јas]

Keddy and Tallon are perennial candidates.

Mr Keddy's photo for the ballot paper.

We don't have anyone in the Dáil who can compete with that beard.

[Oakvale]

Ms McEntee gets the coveted Jas favourite tag in this by-election which really doesn't matter much at all.

Yes! Jinx her with all your might!

Not at all manipulative video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfrYiqfeRg4

I like the top comment.

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[Famous Mortimer]

I'm new to the board so I don't know if I'm stepping out of bounds or not, but it really seems like there's way too many topics in this thread.

[ObserverIE]

There's no information about Martin.

Martin seems to be an ex-Labour member who's running as "Independent Labour" and whose leaflets use a Labour-ish house style.

http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2013/03/22/leaflet-from-mick-martin-independent-labour-2013-meath-east-by-election/

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He has a website....

http://coexistenceireland.com

[Niemeyerite]

How has Fianna Fail recovered? I thought they were a dead party walking, it's hilarious. Can anyone explain it to me? Thanks!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Recovered isn't really accurate because even their best polls have them far weaker than what would once have been a poor election for them. But, basically, look at the current government and how its done. And then note that the only other party is the Shinners, who are still (aha) beyond the pale for many voters.