muon2's Diplomacy game

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ernest's peanut gallery analysis for Spring 1901/Fall 1901.

Austria:
The  A vie - tyr move just doesn't make sense unless Austria is allying with France against Germany.  Fall moves of A tyr - mun with the French A bur supporting will likely gain Austria bav unless Germany does as I describe below. To the south, Serbia has been secured and Greece can easily be obtained (F alb - gre with A ser supporting). However in the north, Russia appears to have ita choice of either vie or bud, as moving to deny Russia that chance would require risking a net gain of zero supply centers, while Austria is on track to have a net gain of one or two supply centers with a continuation of its aggressive Balkan move depending on what Germany does.

England:
Lots of options here.  The main short term consideration is whether to deny Germany gaining Denmark.  If it does then Britannia's orders will be F nth-den and A edi-nwy convoyed by F nwg.
However England can gain two supply centers if it wants without anyone being able to stop them:  There are two decent ways, but I think A edi-hol convoyed by F nth and F neg - nor is probably the better absent any info on the diplomacy.

France:
F mao-por and A mar-spa seems forgone. The real question seems to be what about the army in Burgundy.  Austria's move suggests a Franco-Austrian alliance, in which case A bur supports A tyr-bav will be the order.  But Austria might not be an ally or France could choose to screw them. A bur-bel will either gain Belgium for the French Republic or bounce England if they choose to go there instead of the Netherlands.

Germany:
Germany had a bad start. There was nothing that could have convoyed the army to Sweden since the fleet was not yet in the Baltic Sea.  (Muon probably should have advised Germany that he was giving an impossible order this early in the game, when people will be rusty and/or ignorant concerning convoy requirements.) Germany needs some major diplomacy right now, but it could easily be out of the game soon.  What moves it makes will heavily depend on that diplomacy, so no move analysis right now for them.

Italy:
The apparent Franco-Austrian alliance should be worrying. It can't prevent France from taking Iberia, so diplomatically, it should concede that and go all out against Austria unless it can arrange something better with diplomacy. A tus-tun conveyed by F tys and A ven-tri

Russia:
Except as a diplomatic chip, there's no reason them to not do F bot-swe as militarily it has nothing else useful to do  It has multiple ways to take Romania with the best ways depending on whether Russia is allied with one them or is facing an Austro-Ottoman alliance.

Turkey:
It's best moves depend on who it is allied with.Austria or Russia. An Italo-Ottoman alliance has no bearing on what Turkey does this time.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ernest's peanut gallery analysis for Spring 1901/Fall 1901.



Russia:
Except as a diplomatic chip, there's no reason them to not do F bot-swe as militarily it has nothing else useful to do  It has multiple ways to take Romania with the best ways depending on whether Russia is allied with one them or is facing an Austro-Ottoman alliance.

You could volunteer to take over Russia.

I could but I won't.  I have enough on my plate that I don't feel like committing to a game where regular participation would be expected instead of chiming in from the peanut gallery whenever I feel like it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Austria
We have our first open alliance, with Austria helping the Ottomans in splitting the Balkans. This basically commits them both against Russia as otherwise the alliance falls apart. Austria would've done better to not gone into Tyrol in Spring if they weren't going to commit to invading Munich. They have no choice but to build an Army in Budapest.

England
So who will England ally with? That should become clear in the coming year as any of France, Germany, Russia, or two of the three makes sense. Regardless, A fleet in London to be moved into the channel makes sense. Where and what the second unit to be built depends on what alliance(s) England has made. A build in Liverpool would likely indicate that England and France are going to come to blows.

France
Hard to say who France is allied to. Whether they build a fleet or an army in Marseilles should make clear if France intends to fight or ally with Italy. A fleet in Brest and an army in Paris make sense regardless of France's plans.

Germany
So? France or England? Either way, an army in Kiel is probably the best build.

Italy
A fleet build in Naples is probably Italy's best bet right now. A build in Rome only makes sense if they are allied with Austria and the Ottomans, and Austria's moves suggest that isn't the case.

Russia
The Czar can't hold Sweden without an alliance with either England, Germany, or both. Germany's moves suggest it's not them, so I'm going to assume an alliance with England. Builds of armies in Warsaw and elsewhere make sense.

Turkey
The Porte should build an army in Ankara and a fleet in Istanbul. That's good for both defense and practically guaranteeing taking Sevastopol. Russia would need to commit way too much to hold Sevastopol in my opinion.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'll restrain my comments to pointing out that I think that Turkey made a big mistake in building two armies. A fleet in Istanbul would've been just as useful in defense and far more useful for offense against either Austria or Italy as alliances would call for.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm willing to be a temporary England until a more permanent replacement is found.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I've been reminded why I don't play Diplomacy much. Granted, I made a mistake in writing my orders, but it was absolutely clear what I meant. Bye.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Just to be clear, I do not consider myself a Diplomacy expert. I don't regularly play and if I ever read any strategy guide I long ago forgot what it said. There are things to be said in favor of both a strict and a relaxed game, but given my level of interest it's clear where I stand. It's also why I made clear from the start my intention to only be a temporary , and why I took the soonest opportunity to engage in an excuse to depart.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm still up and the orders are all in ...

Spring 1902

Austria:
        A bud Supports A tri -> vie
        F gre -> alb
        A ser Holds
        A tri -> vie
     
England:
        No order for unit at London. Hold order assigned.
        F eng -> eng
            No unit in eng
        A edi -> yor
        A hol Supports A bel -> ruh
            Support failed. Supported unit's order does not match support given.
        F lon Holds
        F nth Supports F lon -> eng
            Support failed. Supported unit's order does not match support given.
        F nwy Supports F swe
     
France:
        A bel Holds
        F bre -> eng
        A mar -> bur
        A par -> pic
        F por Holds
        A spa -> mar

Germany:
        F bal Supports A den -> swe
        A den -> swe
            Bounced with swe (2 against 2).
        A kie Holds
        A sil Holds
     
Italy:
        F nap -> tys
        F tun -> wes
        A tus Supports A ven
        A ven Holds

Russia:
        A mos Supports F sev
        F sev Holds
        F swe Supports F nwy
            Support cut by Move from Denmark.
        A ukr Supports F sev
        A vie -> boh
        A war -> sil
            Bounced with sil (1 against 1).
       
Turkey:
        F bla Supports A smy -> arm
        A bul Supports A rum
        A con Supports A bul
        A rum Holds
        A smy -> arm
     


No retreats are needed. This is the position going into Fall 1902. I've added the place names with proper abbreviations so that there should be no confusion.



Fall 1902 moves are due by 11:59 pm CDT on Fri Nov 2.

If I were interested in causing chaos as England:

F Nwy move to Stp (North Coast)
A Hol move to Nwy by convoy via F Nth
F Nth convoy A Hol to Nwy
F Lon support F Nth hold
A Yor move to Wal

But since I'm no longer playing England, these aren't official orders.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Nah, and if I had stayed in the game I'd have used different orders anyway.

F Nwy-Stp NC may be an interesting order but it limits what one can do with that unit to just holding Stp. More useful is F Stp NC-Nwy with support from Swe as part of a Russo-German alliance if Russia builds a fleet on Stp NC.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Austria's essentially dead.  An army in Bohemia can't hope to survive, while a Free Austria Navy in Tunisia can't do anything while it might survive another year or two, if only because of the incompetence of the Ottoman Navy in getting out of its own way so that it could build that third unit in Constantinople.  (Note, the Admirals in this game have generally been incompetent on all sides, not just the Ottoman Admirals.)

Italy would have been better off doing a full retreat in the West, at least temporarily. Had it done Lyo->tys, Italy wouldn't be disbanding a unit and France would be building one less because France wouldn't have captured Spain.

If y'all are allowing joint victories, a Franco-Ottoman one is now available if the two don't want to see who wins.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Having finally finished its buildup, the United States is ready to get involved in Diplomacy.

Fall 1906 orders:

F Salish Sea supports A Washington -> British Columbia
A Washington -> British Columbia
A Montana supports A Washington -> British Columbia
A Dakota supports A Minnesota -> Manitoba
A Minnesota -> Manitoba
A Michigan supports A New York -> Ontario
A New York -> Ontario
F Gulf of Maine supports A New England-> New Brunswick
A New England -> New Brunswick
F Delmarva -> West Atlantic
A Georgilina -> Delmarva
A Florida -> Cuba
F Sargasso convoys A Florida -> Cuba
F Caribbean supports A Florida -> Cuba
A Louisiana -> Nuevo Leon
F Gulf of Mexico convoys A Louisiana -> Nuevo Leon
A Texas supports A Louisiana -> Nuevo Leon
A New Mexico supports A Arizona -> Sonora
A Arizona -> Sonora
F California Coast supports F San Diego -> Baja California (wc)
A Hawaii holds
A Manila supports A Davao holding
A Davao supports A Manila holding

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wasn't worrying about a standard Diplomacy variant, just coming up with Diplomacy-esque area names assuming a united United States.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At this point, it's fairly clear that the Turks have won, the only question is if a Franco-German alliance can force the Porte to accept a draw.

The Germans have no ability to threaten Sevastapol and their prospects of advancing into the former Austrian territories look bleak.  The Porte might be able to take Moscow in 1908, but likely only if the Reich fails to reinforce Moscow because it gets too involved in the West.

The French also have a lack of ability to act against the Turks right now. It's doubtful that the Republic of France can hold on to Venice once the Turks get a fleet into the Adriatic with the only question being does that happen in 1907 or 1908? Too much effort in Britain, or even worse, fighting with Germany, makes reinforcing the Republic's forces in the western Mediterranean in time impossible, but Britain has supply centers a Franco-German alliance will need to be able to halt the Porte.

The biggest weakness a Franco-German alliance has are those two German navies. If they're needed in the Baltic for defense, the Porte will have taken at least Moscow. If the French were to build a second northern fleet that could then grind the German fleet to pieces to be replaced by armies before heading south themselves to the Mediterranean, that too would actually make the situation worse in the short term by tying up so much force away from the Turkish fronts, that they might win outright before the freed up resources could get south.

Oddly enough, what a Franco-German alliance needs most is either an active British or an active Austrian player, at least in the short run.  A British player could grind away the German fleets so they could be rebuilt as armies without tying up French navies and make it possible for the one French army already landed to take Britain without further reinforcements, tho it wouldn't be able to finish until Fall 1909. (Obviously France would need to let Germany get back Munich at minimum.)  An active Austrian player cooperating with the French would be able to hold Tunis and support French navies in the water. (In the turn just past, an Austria cooperating with the French would have been able to get a French fleet into WES and still seen the elimination of the Italians.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Both France and Germany made tactical blunders earlier in this game, so I wouldn't assume everything's going to go by the optimum Diplomacy book. It probably is the case that they should be able to keep you from winning by yourself, but I don't consider that a guarantee just yet.  I'd at least wait and see what the builds are before accepting a draw.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The caretaker government did make a tactical error, but I viewed my role as leaving options open for whoever took over so I wouldn't say it was a strategic error.  Even with my error, Britain was still in a playable position.  As for playing, I like kibitzing as it doesn't require a fixed commitment, and I'll have plenty on my plate in Spring 2019. I might be available for a caretaker role, but not for a full player.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No go for me.  I've got a couple of vacations lined up in the next couple of months so I don't want to commit to being online in the slightest this summer.