The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[Mr. Morden]

The latest on Amash, according to those in his orbit, is that he might be waiting on two things: One is to see if his friend Mark Sanford is going to run for the GOP nomination, and the other is to see if he’d be a strong enough contender for the Libertarian nomination that he’d basically be guaranteed of winning it:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/justin-amash-has-been-coy-about-a-presidential-bid-leaving-never-trumpers-searching-for-clues

Amash’s plans remain opaque. Publicly, he insists he’s running for re-election to his House seat until he says otherwise. Privately, he’s told supporters the same thing. And while those people believe Amash is actively considering a presidential bid, his political inner circle is so tight-knit about the possibility that allies have little idea what the congressman is actually planning. 
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Those who know Amash say he may be waiting on two things before making a decision: a clearer sense of Libertarian Party support, and a clearer statement of plans from another rumored Trump challenger: his former House colleague Mark Sanford. The South Carolina Republican, who served as governor and a member of  Congress before losing his seat last cycle, has not yet officially launched a bid but is considered likely to challenge Trump in the GOP primary.

The Daily Beast spoke with six people who either know Amash personally or have worked with him, three of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about what his plans may be. One of them said that the congressman is almost certainly waiting to see if Sanford will run, and that he would not run himself if his old friend were to get in the race.
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One source who knows Amash told The Daily Beast that the congressman is likely waiting to see if the Libertarian nomination would be a lock for him should he make a bid. “If I were to guess where he is right now, I'd say that he's trying to make sure that he would walk into the Libertarian nomination without having to fight for it,” the source said. “His worst case scenario is, he bows out of a congressional fight only to lose the Libertarian nomination.” 

[Coldstream]

The Libertarian Party are crazy enough not to nominate him.

[Mr. Morden]

It appears we're unlikely to get a Sanford announcement this week:

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1168618397610979329

[Mr. Morden]

Schultz:

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-09-06/starbucks-ceo-howard-schultz-ends-presidential-bid

Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says he’s no longer considering an independent presidential bid.

Schultz said Friday in a letter posted on his website, “I have concluded that an independent campaign for the White House is not how I can best serve our country at this time.”

Schultz faced intense resistance from Democratic activists who feared an independent run would give President Trump an easier path to reelection. Schultz says not enough people are willing to back an independent because they fear doing so “might lead to reelecting a uniquely dangerous incumbent president.”

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford:

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article234786002.html

Sanford declined to give a new timeline for his announcement — which was originally slated to fall around Labor Day — but acknowledged, “I’m near the end of my ponder.”

“My number one goal is trying to get a word out on debt, deficit and government spending,” he said. “I don’t know that a primary or not would materially changing that, so we’ll see.”

[Mr. Morden]

Publicly, at least, Amash says that his friend Mark Sanford running for president will have no impact on his own decision on whether to run for president:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/460634-amash-says-sanford-presidential-bid-wont-impact-decision-on-whether-he-runs

“It has no bearing,” Amash told The Hill on Monday. “I don't have any plans to get involved in the Republican primary.”

The Michigan independent has expressed an interest in challenging the president but has not yet made a decision.

Amash has repeatedly praised Sanford, a fellow Trump critic and former conservative colleague in the House, for standing by his policy positions and pushing back on the administration.  

"I know Mark. He's thoughtful, he's humble, he's learned from his mistakes and grown, and I think we really need a person like that in the White House," he told CNN earlier this year. 

[Mr. Morden]

Chafee does an interview here, in which he says that he was approached by Libertarian Party officials about a run, describing it in a way that makes it sound like more of a draft than something he’ll have to actively fight for:

http://www.cranstononline.com/stories/chafee-opens-up-on-libertarian-presidential-bid,145220

Chafee said the ultimate decision on who will become the Libertarian nominee is up to the party, but he is excited for the opportunity regardless.

“Life is good and a new adventure is always good at this stage in my life,” he said.

[Mr. Morden]

Ventura:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/463672-jesse-ventura-considering-run-for-president-as-independent

Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura said Saturday that he is considering a presidential run in 2020 as an independent.

“I have that voice in the back of my head that says to me, ‘if not me, then who?,'" the former wrestling star said on Fox 11 Los Angeles's "The Issue Is."
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Last November he told TMZ that he might run for president in 2020 as a member of the Green Party.

"If I do do it, Trump will not have a chance," Ventura said.

"For one, Trump knows wrestling. He participated in two Wrestlemanias. He knows he can never out-talk a wrestler, and he knows I'm the greatest talker wrestling's ever had."

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Oh please let Jesse Ventura run.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/bloomberg-signals-he-would-run-for-president-if-biden-struggles-against-warren.html

Mike Bloomberg might end up running for president, after all.

Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York, has indicated to associates in recent weeks that Joe Biden’s recent struggles against Sen. Elizabeth Warren are making him rethink his decision to stay out of the 2020 Democratic primary. That’s according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because the conversations were deemed private.

Bloomberg has signaled he’s “still looking at” running for president, but people close him say that the only way he could even go down that path is if Biden’s fortunes suffer so much that he drops out before or during the early stages of the primary. Bloomberg could then enter the race as one of the rare moderates with enough name recognition and campaign funding to make a run. Forbes estimates his net worth at $51 billion, and he was planning to spend over $100 million on a campaign for president if he ran.

“I think it’s something he wants. He has not been shy about that,” one of Bloomberg’s allies familiar with the talks told CNBC. “Nothing can happen unless Biden drops out, and that’s not happening anytime soon,” this person added.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich New Hampshire visit likely coming in early November:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Steinhauser-White-House-NH-2020-29281566

Two top New Hampshire allies of the former Ohio governor tell the Monitor that Kasich’s upcoming trip to New Hampshire – first advertised a couple of months ago – is still on and is likely to occur in early November. That’s around the time the 2016 Republican presidential candidate and vocal Trump critic will be on a tour for his latest book, It’s Up to Us: Ten Little Ways We Can Bring About Big Change.

Of course a stop in New Hampshire would once again fuel speculation that Kasich may join Weld, Sanford and Walsh in a primary challenge of the president.

[Tender Branson]

Kasich New Hampshire visit likely coming in early November:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Steinhauser-White-House-NH-2020-29281566

Two top New Hampshire allies of the former Ohio governor tell the Monitor that Kasich’s upcoming trip to New Hampshire – first advertised a couple of months ago – is still on and is likely to occur in early November. That’s around the time the 2016 Republican presidential candidate and vocal Trump critic will be on a tour for his latest book, It’s Up to Us: Ten Little Ways We Can Bring About Big Change.

Of course a stop in New Hampshire would once again fuel speculation that Kasich may join Weld, Sanford and Walsh in a primary challenge of the president.

He would have to make his mind up quickly then: Nov. 15 is the last day to file in NH.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich asked at about the 9:25 mark here:

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/what-would-it-take-for-kasich-to-run-in-2020-71280197663

if there's any chance that he'll decide to run for president this year.  His answer is "Only if I have a chance to win."

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Kasich asked at about the 9:25 mark here:

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/what-would-it-take-for-kasich-to-run-in-2020-71280197663

if there's any chance that he'll decide to run for president this year.  His answer is "Only if I have a chance to win."

At this point, he is attention whoring. He doesn't want to run, he just wants attention so he can run in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

Latest from Kasich:

https://apnews.com/0a2326173c884c8fb8124a4e204b632b

The former Ohio governor said that he hasn’t yet ruled out a 2020 bid for president, and that he still gets requests from supporters daily asking him to run for president.
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But he wasn’t bullish about his chances this time around, lamenting that “there’s no way for me to win right now.” He noted that Republicans “are still very much behind Trump” and that some states have already canceled their Republican presidential primaries.

[Mr. Morden]

New NY Times story on Dems who previously ruled out a run this time being urged to reconsider.  Apparently Bloomberg, Clinton, and Holder have all made some kind of comment to people close to them opening the door slightly, with Bloomberg and Clinton saying maybe “if they thought they could win”, and Holder saying maybe but wondering if it’s too late:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/22/us/politics/democratic-candidates-2020.html

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Bloomberg have both told people privately in recent weeks that if they thought they could win, they would consider entering the primary—but that they were skeptical there would be an opening, according to Democrats who have spoken with them.
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Another Obama administration official who weighed a campaign at the start of the year, former Attorney General Eric Holder, is considering a last-minute entry but has conceded it may be too late, according to a Democrat familiar with his thinking.

Bloomberg said to be “More eager to find a way into the race than Clinton”, but both of them seen as unlikely to jump in unless Biden either drops out or “is badly weakened”.

Meanwhile, Deval Patrick was asked about whether he’d ever reconsider, and said “Don’t ask me that question.”

Sherrod Brown and John Kerry have also been urged to reconsider by some around them, but no indication that they actually are reconsidering.

[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo also has a story on this topic, but this one focuses much more on Clinton specifically:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/anxiety-rises-among-democrats-worried-about-partys-prospects-in-2020/2019/10/22/b9c015d4-f4d9-11e9-8cf0-4cc99f74d127_story.html

Hillary Clinton, according to two people close to her, has not ruled out jumping in herself.
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“Ultimately, it’s unlikely she would do it,” said one person who has spoken with her. “But put it this way: It ain’t zero. And does she think about it all the time? Absolutely.”
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A late entrance under any circumstances would be difficult, with Clinton’s former aides and fundraising network dispersed among many current campaigns. But her supporters have discussed whether she could helm a slimmed-down campaign operation and whether she would be able to maintain the less cautious, more freewheeling persona she has adopted since her loss in 2016.

“Her view is: I ran against this guy, I know how to do this,” said one of those close to her. “She has battle scars to prove it.”

[Mr. Morden]

Dick’s Sporting Goods CEO might run as an Indy:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/23/dicks-sporting-goods-ceo-presidential-run-055565

Ed Stack, the CEO of Dick’s Sporting Goods and a longtime Republican donor, is testing the waters for a possible third-party presidential bid that could scramble the dynamics of the 2020 general election.

Various messages were presented to a focus group in southern Wisconsin this week centering on the billionaire businessman, along with possible three-way match-ups against Donald Trump and Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren.

The focus group, according to a source who took part in the testing, ran through varying themes involving Stack and heavily focused on his example of “showing leadership” by halting the sale of assault-style rifles at all of Dick’s Sporting Goods stores in the wake of the high school massacre in Parkland, Fla.
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A source familiar with Stack’s thinking said, “Mr. Stack enjoys running Dick’s Sporting Goods and has no plans to run for any elected office.”

The message testing told a different story. Those in the group were shown several short videos of other candidates including Biden, Warren and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz — a fellow billionaire who explored a presidential bid as an independent before announcing in September that he would not run — but viewed eight or nine videos that included Stack messaging, according to a focus group participant.
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The session concluded with participants asked to vote on sample ballots that matched up Stack, Biden and Donald Trump and then Stack, Elizabeth Warren or Trump.

[SN2903]

LOL. If he does good news for Trump as he would pull more from Ds than Rs. Ventura is a crack pot. Also he is so jealous of Trump it is not even funny. 

[Hammy]

Dems already blew 2020 when they decided to set things up for a Trump acquittal right before the election so all this will do is give Trump an even bigger victory than he'd already have.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

LOL. If he does good news for Trump as he would pull more from Ds than Rs. Ventura is a crack pot. Also he is so jealous of Trump it is not even funny. 

That depends on what kind of campaign Ventura wishes to run.  I don't know if he will tilt left or right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Go away Ventura

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LOL. If he does good news for Trump as he would pull more from Ds than Rs. Ventura is a crack pot. Also he is so jealous of Trump it is not even funny. 

Venture would not even qualify for the debates, thus, carrying the same amount of votes that Gary Johnson pulled, Ventura wouldn't, thus, gifting PA, MI or PA, would not be in the cards for Trump.

Anyways, Bidem s a stronger nominee than Clinton

[Suburbia]

He would get 1% or 2% of the vote nationally.

His time was probably in 2000

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich to visit NH on Nov. 7th:

https://www.wmur.com/article/former-ohio-gov-john-kasich-to-visit-nh-on-nov-7-for-event-at-unh/29615899

Kasich’s visit during the filing period for the presidential primary has prompted speculation that perhaps he’ll make a surprise filing of his own candidacy, but key supporters in the Granite State say that’s simply not going to happen. Kasich finished second in the 2016 Republican first-in-the-nation primary, although far behind Trump – the margin was 35 percent to 16 percent.

Bloomberg asked about reports that he’s reconsidering his decision not to run for president this year:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/watch-bloomberg-rips-the-democratic-primary-field-i-have-my-reservations

Accordingly, Brennan pressed Bloomberg further on the possibility of being a late add to the Democratic race.

“I put out a statement in March saying and outlining why I was not running for president,” Bloomberg replied. “And nothing’s changed other than the calendar.”

“So you’re kind of closing the door?” Brennan asked.

“No, I didn’t say that,” he responded. “It’s just X number of months later and nothing’s changed.”