Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[scutosaurus]

Kemp up 44/41 in the latest AJC poll.

I'll be very surprised if Cagle wins; then again, I predicted Kemp would win the runoff from the very beginning. Every move Cagle has been making reeks of desperation thanks to his scandals and lack of enthusiasm on the ground.

[SCNCmod]

Who do you think is most likely to win the General... Abrams or whoever wins the Repub primary... or does it differ depending on who win wins the runoff?

Also- do you think the Lt Gov election will have the same outcome as the Governor's race (regarding which party wins)?

[smoltchanov]

Who do you think is most likely to win the General... Abrams or whoever wins the Repub primary... or does it differ depending on who win wins the runoff?

Also- do you think the Lt Gov election will have the same outcome as the Governor's race (regarding which party wins)?

Without "Todd Akin" blunders - Republicans in both races. I expect Georgia to elect Democrats again statewide by 2026, but - not now.

[SCNCmod]

I think Dems certainly have chances earlier than 2026.  FWIW- The only polling data I can really find... had Abrams ahead of Kemp and mixed results vs Cagle ( or maybe Abrams ahead of Cagle & mixed vs Kemp ... can remember as I do not know much about political scene in GA)

[smoltchanov]

I think Dems certainly have chances earlier than 2026.  FWIW- The only polling data I can really find... had Abrams ahead of Kemp and mixed results vs Cagle ( or maybe Abrams ahead of Cagle & mixed vs Kemp ... can remember as I do not know much about political scene in GA)

I know that. Still - count me skeptical. 45% - sure, 47 - quite possible, 50%+1 - i don't see that. Especially with Democratic candidate being Black liberal woman.

P.S. For me it's still Lean R, but i would like to err very much and see first Black governor of Deep South state in many years (and, BTW, an absolutely impossible thing when i began to study Southern politics about year 1971). But - it surely won't be easy task.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who do you think is most likely to win the General... Abrams or whoever wins the Repub primary... or does it differ depending on who win wins the runoff?

Also- do you think the Lt Gov election will have the same outcome as the Governor's race (regarding which party wins)?

I originally thought Evans would be the stronger Democratic candidate (and voted for her in the primary), but I've come around to the view that Abrams is doing exactly what she needs to do to maximize her chances of winning.  It's still a fairly heavy lift for any Democratic candidate, though, and right after the primary I thought that the race would be Lean R with Cagle, Tossup with Kemp.  However, with everything that's come out against Cagle, I now think he's the weaker R candidate, so I'll call Abrams v Cagle Tilt D, with Abrams v Kemp still a total Tossup.

Can't comment on the LG race as I haven't paid it that much attention (it gets virtually none in the local media).

[Podgy the Bear]

I am with Georgia Moderate on every point (including voting for Stacey Evans for the same reasons) except that I think that it still remains Tossup to Lean R--and with both Cagle and Kemp.  

I expect that the Republicans will come together after the runoff and will direct their attention against Abrams and will bring about the horrors that a black, liberal woman will wreak upon the wonderful, upstanding moral Georgia way of life.  

Good to know that Abrams is working hard to GOTV from the base--and that she is targeting those areas where she needs to drive down the massive Republican margins have rolled up in only the last 20 years.  For example, Banks County in NE Georgia gave the Democrats only 9 percent of the vote in 2016 (they received 40+ percent in the 1990s).    If Abrams can pick up 20-30 percent of the vote in counties like Banks, she'll have a chance to win.

I think the LG race will follow the gubernatorial race.  The SOS race seems to be most competitive for the Democrats.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Toss-Up. Abrams is running a vigorous campaign, the R candidates are kind of weak, and her and the PACS backing her will be spending millions to bring out voters who won’t be polled. I expect a long night on November 6.

[QAnonKelly]

I’d agree that Gov is a tossup. I could see at least one statewide office going D and if I had to guess it’d be SoS.

[KingSweden]

I’d agree that Gov is a tossup. I could see at least one statewide office going D and if I had to guess it’d be SoS.

I agree

[QAnonKelly]

There’s a run off debate happening rn.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/2-gop-candidates-for-governor-to-debate-on-channel-2/787533005

[wesmoorenerd]

There’s a run off debate happening rn.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/2-gop-candidates-for-governor-to-debate-on-channel-2/787533005

I can only assume it's a race to the bottom.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I still see this as Lean R.

[wesmoorenerd]

I still see this as Lean R.

Lean R is still fair, that's what I have in my own ratings. It's undeniable that everything has been going Abrams' way so far, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There’s a run off debate happening rn.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/2-gop-candidates-for-governor-to-debate-on-channel-2/787533005

Highlights of the debate: https://www.ajc.com/news/gop-gubernatorial-rivals-trade-jabs-debate-before-runoff/ltl4lhbxCW0yVUpj6CAAOK/

[KingSweden]

I still see this as Lean R.

As do I. I think Abrams is running a great campaign, but 50+1 will be tough

[Podgy the Bear]

Significant article in today's NY Times about the Republican runoff. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/georgia-governor-cagle-kemp.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

The race is beginning to garner national attention.  It should happen anyway, as we are now the 8th largest state in the country and (hopefully) moving to a purple state.

[Zaybay]

I still see this as Lean R.

As do I. I think Abrams is running a great campaign, but 50+1 will be tough

TBH with you, I think the 50%+1 is a bit overplayed. Yes, its an obstacle, but its not an electoral wall. All you need is the more enthused base on a special election, and if its held in 2018/2019, the advantage goes to the Dems.

I rate this race as pure tossup, as I dont know the R, and how strong each R would be in the general.

[QAnonKelly]

I still see this as Lean R.

As do I. I think Abrams is running a great campaign, but 50+1 will be tough

TBH with you, I think the 50%+1 is a bit overplayed. Yes, its an obstacle, but its not an electoral wall. All you need is the more enthused base on a special election, and if its held in 2018/2019, the advantage goes to the Dems.

I rate this race as pure tossup, as I dont know the R, and how strong each R would be in the general.

I think there are too many moving parts to call this anything other than a tossup. Abrams has run a great campaign thus far but she’s also been very lucky. Her luck could end up running out or she could slip up and make a big mistake. There’s no doubt whoever emerges from the runoff is damaged goods, we just don’t know how damaged or who emerges. As of right now, I think this race is gonna come down to the wire. Just depends on if someone can pull away once the runoff of is over.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/PhilKentAtl/status/1018491048643956737

The link also says Hunter Hill will be endorsing Kemp this week.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/PhilKentAtl/status/1018491048643956737

The link also says Hunter Hill will be endorsing Kemp this week.

So as soon as Cagle goes down the far-right, Martha McSally moderate hero/Conservative firebrand route, he gets endorsed by the popular, moderate R governor. Cagle is a mess.
I dont think the endorsement will get him far, though, in fact I think Hill's endorsement is actually worth more. Those are the voters he needs to win, not the moderates who were going to vote for him anyway.

[terp40hitch]

Significant article in today's NY Times about the Republican runoff. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/georgia-governor-cagle-kemp.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

The race is beginning to garner national attention.  It should happen anyway, as we are now the 8th largest state in the country and (hopefully) moving to a purple state.

If Georgia goes purple, it won’t be there for long or at all. It may just go Democratic like Virginia did in 2008

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/PhilKentAtl/status/1018491048643956737

The link also says Hunter Hill will be endorsing Kemp this week.

Wonder if the religious liberty pact is still in effect

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/CaseyCagle/status/1018889973389504515

Governor Deal endorsed Cagle today. I can’t imagine the Governor backing someone who could potentially lose. They must know something we don’t. It’s going to be a long wait until next Tuesday night.