BRTD's county map predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wonder whether Clackamas might be the sort of place to see quite a low swing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

I think, though I could easily be wrong, that Vanderburgh might fall before some of the river counties or even, maybe, before the likes of Porter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al would know a lot more for this:



Imagine McCain by about 7 or so. No he's not winning by double digits, yes, he's winning by less than Wyoming, no he's not close to winning every county.

Nicholas and Clay will probably fall before Harrison. Jefferson might swing hard, might hardly swing at all (it's on the edge of the DC metro area, with all that might be associated with that, you know...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But still, he has DuPage!

Urgh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural IL became much more conservative, and Chicago suburbs have become much more liberal since 2002.

As a general rule things do not change that quickly. More significant, perhaps, is the fact that Durbin is a downstate pol (used to be congresscritter for the area around East St Louis IIRC) while Obama is a product of the Chicago machine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You know, the only really interesting state left is Pennsylvania, but the purpose of this thread is to post county map predictions, not bitch with Phil for 10 pages about I'm a hack for predicting Obama will win Beaver county.

We'll see what comes up later tonight.

What about Georgia?  It looks like that state will have one of the larger swings toward Obama.

If there bist a huge swing to Obama in Georgia it'll be because of better Black turnout. And we know were they live anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I just realized I basically need to finish these off tonight, since tommorow night I'm going to be training for my new position most of the day, and then doing a late night lit drop. So whatever, whine away Phil:

I'm not really convinced that the east-west division will be that marked (though it's possible, certainly it's possible). There's no evidence to suggest that Western Pennsylvania is an especially racist area (that the assertion that it is have been so heavily peddled by hopeful (!) Republic partisans adds... aha...) and I can't really think of any reasons specific to the area (beyond, perhaps, a wider problem with traditional working class areas (which may or may not be confined to the primaries), I mean if Washington falls you'd expect maybe Luzerne to go as well) to explain a swing against Obama there (a low swing would be a different matter). Flipping this around... I'm also not sure quite how much of an appeal Obama has to outer-metropolitan areas.