Pretty much all of the polls this year have been contradicted by every notable election since the start of 2022. There's really no way around this. We can talk a bunch of sh-t about the "generic" ballot, but almost every single time a named Republican candidate is up against a named Democrat, the Democrat has won or at least over-performed. Is Sisolak the only Democrat of note to lose since the Youngkin mess back in 2021 (when Trump was the least visible he's been in the last ten years)? Downballot Republicans have not been this weak in my lifetime. Obviously more of them lost in 2006-2008, but that was when they had no hope of winning. If Biden is as hated as the polls say he is then Democrats should have been losing across the board these past couple years.
I agree Biden will do worse, but this supposed depolarization seems to have only gone one way post Youngkin, and I don't think it's a coincidence that 2021 was the least visible Trump has been in the past decade. It's not like credible Republican challengers were putting up a fight in safe D states while popular incumbent Democrats won safe R states. Republicans just did pretty bad or at best mediocre across the board except in New York, and I suppose Florida but I don't really care about Florida.