Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[smoltchanov]

Has Trump tweeted a single time about the massive, substantiated election fraud going on in NC?

Or does he only care about fake news election fraud against Republicans?

Real question.

I am sure you know the answer...

[smoltchanov]

A Green Party candidate, Allen Smith, filed in NC-09 yesterday.

And will peel some otherwise Democratic votes, while having zero chances of victory. IMHO - idiocy...

[smoltchanov]

Like I said in the McBath thread, whatever helps the swing-districters get elected.

That will definitely help McCready in this rather conservative district. I think there are very few Omar supporters in it...

[smoltchanov]

It's very strange to me because NC-9 isn't a Jewish district like GA6 is, but I guess whatever it takes to get elected.

That confirms my supercynical approach to politics and elections: candidates (mostly) run to win, not to make some policy changes. Win at almost every possible price, victory being valuable enpugh by itself...

[smoltchanov]

What i expect? Low turnout and fairly standard for this district result: about 65-35 Republican.

[smoltchanov]

What i expect? Low turnout and fairly standard for this district result: about 65-35 Republican.

This is definitely 100% possible.  I'm thinking(perhaps too optimistically) that it might be closer to 60-40 Republican, based on the ground game improvements I've seen+it being a special(though it also coincides with local elections, so that will likely lessen the "special effect")+loss of Marino's incumbency/name recognition, but who knows.  Rural Pennsylvania gonna rural Pennsylvania.    

An old saying: Pennsylvania is a Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and ... Alabama between them, comes to mind...)))

[smoltchanov]

Dan Bishop would instantly become my least favorite Congressman should he win both the primary and the general. Disgusting.

This, which is exactly why I expect him to win.

What if he wins general?

[smoltchanov]

Well, i overestimated Democrats by predicting only 65-35....

[smoltchanov]

Well, i overestimated Democrats by predicting only 65-35....

My prediction was even more embarrassing, but it’s not like these off-year special elections are easy to predict. It does appear that the pattern this year isn’t nearly as favorable for Democrats as in 2017/2018.

Sure. May be because they are not a minority on all levels anymore. The have House, and that makes them part of "power that be"....

[smoltchanov]

It's because Democrats are getting too far to the left for rural NC to vote for them.

Democrats are practically always "too far to the left," while Republicans can keep going further right, and these voters barely bat an eye. Call me skeptical.

In this particular case we talk about North Carolina district with considerable rural component. It's all, but impossinble, to be "too far to the right" in this district, but it's very easy to be "too far to the left" (even pragmatic liberal will fall into this "cathegory").....

[smoltchanov]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

[smoltchanov]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

[smoltchanov]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..

[smoltchanov]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..

Ideology matters far less than #pundits think. Does it say his state senate district is far right despite being left of NC as a whole because it voted for him?

Well, usually left-leaning district doesn't vote for rightists and vice versa. Exceptions happen, but - not too frequently...

[smoltchanov]

^ Let's wait and see. In less then 3,5 month we will know results, and many things will be much clearer...

[smoltchanov]

^ Let's wait and see. In less then 3,5 month we will know results, and many things will be much clearer...

True but just wondering would you consider MN 07 a left leaning district in 2014 because it voted for Al Franken in a GOP wave year?

No. But it was less right-wing  in 2014 then now, considerably...

[smoltchanov]

Who do you think wins The NC-3 primary: Joan Perry our Rep. Greg Murphy? One is backed by the Freedom Caucus and the other is backed by an army of GOP women?

I don't see any real difference between two. And "battle of Tweedledee and Tweedledum" is far from being the most interesting thing... TBH - the same frequently happens in Democratic primaries too..

[smoltchanov]

Pretty sure Joan Perry endorsed Democrats as recently as 2012.

She did support McIntyre, but he was a Democrat in name only.

He (McIntyre) was slightly right-of-center politician, who happened to be Democrat. To call him a "DINO" is serious exaggeration, though by present day standards - who knows? The standards in BOTH parties, concerning "who is real, and who isn't", went really crazy in the last decade... What's most important -  he was the only Democrat, who was able to hold this district for number of years in face of serious republican candidates  Any "more progressive" candidate would immediately lose it. So, McIntyre was simply the best candidate, whom Democrats could run here. BTW - they easily lost district after his retirement... And have little chances to regain it...

[smoltchanov]

Seemed that these were both good candidates, and I could’ve supported either one. Probably would’ve ended up voting Murphy though because of Perry’s recent endorsement of a democrat.

O, yeah - to endorse good candidate from other party is a crime now. Idiocy.....

[smoltchanov]

Here are my predictions for Sept. 10:

NC-03: 50-48-2 McCready (D)
NC-09: 55-43-2 Murphy (R)

Murphy runs in NC-03, McCready - in NC-09.... Otherwise - close to my expectations..

[smoltchanov]

Seemed that these were both good candidates, and I could’ve supported either one. Probably would’ve ended up voting Murphy though because of Perry’s recent endorsement of a democrat.

O, yeah - to endorse good candidate from other party is a crime now. Idiocy.....

When "the other party" is an authoritarian quasi-communist fifth column openly determined to destroy literally everything that has ever been good in America, then yeah, it is a crime.

Idiocy, plain and simple. Well, i expected nothing else...