Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August

[Velasco]

I think this is an excellent opportunity to post my map of the 2015 presidential first round. Sadly, I didn't make the runoff. Leading candidate by provincial subdivision*. Click right button to enlarge:

* _{BsAs City: comuna
BsAs Province: partido or municipality
Everywhere else: department}

[Velasco]

The Macri-Pichetto ticket is very Argentinian. Miguel Ángel Pichetto is a Peronist who sided with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the past, but now he is far from La Presidenta and leads a non-K Justicialist faction in the Senate. The official statement has mentions to consensus building, "generosity" and "patriotism". Macri says Pichetto is a "statesman". That's lip service, idle talk. People endorsing Macri in the belief that he's a sort of anti-peronist champion must be confused or disappointed.

I haven't been following this race.  I know Macri is very unpopular, but ignore who could be the winning horse. Is there a clear favourite, or a group of well placed candidates? Maybe it's too early...

[Velasco]

I haven't been following this race.  I know Macri is very unpopular, but ignore who could be the winning horse. Is there a clear favourite, or a group of well placed candidates? Maybe it's too early...

The main contenders are clearly Fernandez-Fernandez and Macri (both with numbers from the low to high 30s), with most polls giving the kirchneristas the lead  (although Macri is getting closer in recent polls), with everyone else getting under 10%

I should have imagined it was going to be like that. I'd like there was a dark horse somewhere, but it seems unlikely. The list of candidates that you have posted above is not very promising. Personally I'd go for Lavagna, but maybe he's too old. Guess that I'll begin to follow the race this summer. Thank you for the information.

How about Lousteau and the other progressives? Any sign of life there?

[Velasco]

Wow, the coalitions are more Argentinian than ever

I see there's no other choice for me but endorsing the good old Roberto Lavagna, despite he has picked an awful partner

In the City of Buenos Aires, Lousteau's allies (the UCR and Partido Socialista) integrated into Juntos por el Cambio

Lousteau allied to Macri. Donda and Solanas converted to kirchnerismo

To be honest, the scenario in the capital city looks depressing

[Velasco]

Santa Fe

Frente Juntos: Omar Perotti (Partido Justicialista)-Alejandra Rodenas (PJ):  40.52
Frente Progresista: Antonio Bonfatti (P. Socialista)-Victoria Tejeda (UCR) : 36.34
Cambiemos: José Corral (Unión Cívica Radical)-Anita Martínez (Pro) :  18.96

Frente Progresista lost to the United PJ after 3 terms in office

San Luis
Frente Unidad Justicialista: Alberto Rodriguez Saa (PJ, Compromiso Federal)  -Eduardo Mones Ruiz (PJ): 42.18
San Luis Unido: Claudio Poggi (Avanzar)-Enrique Ponce (S.L. Somos Todos) : 34.65
Juntos por la Gente: Adolfo Rodriguez Saa (PJ/CF)-Marcelo Sosa: 22.07

So finally the only socialist stronghold fell. There were insecurity problems years ago related to drug trafficking in Rosario, the largest city of Santa Fe province. I believe that was an issue in the previous election. Would you say the situation aggravated these years and (if so) influenced the results?

Regarding San Luis, the decadence of Adolfo Rodriguez Saá shocks me. It's not only that he's a former governor: he was president of Argentina for a brief period. This electoral bashing is pitiful and I wonder why he didn't withdraw, in order to avoid being humiliated*

To be honest, I didn't read the result correctly with my phone this morning. I thought Adolfo Rodríguez Saá got 2.07 instead of 22.07. That makes a difference

I'll have to look for that dispute within the Rodríguez Saá clan. What happened between them?

[Velasco]

Candidates qualified for presidential elections (88.8% reporting)

Alberto Fernández/CFdK (Frente de Todos, big tent or centre-left Peronist) 47.36%

Mauricio Macri/Miguel Angel Pichetto (Juntos por el Cambio, centre-right non-peronist ruling alliance) 32.24%

Roberto Lavagna / Juan Manuel Urtubey (Consenso Federal: federal peronists leaning centre-right, socialists and other centre-left parties) 8.34%

Nicolás del Caño/Romina del Pla (FIT, trotskyst) 2.89%

Juan José Gómez Centurión/Cynthia Hotton (Frente NOS,  right-wing to far-right) 2.63%

José Luis Espert/Luis Rosales (UNITE, right-wing) 2.22%

Source: La Nación

[Velasco]

Córdoba and the City of Buenos Aires stand as the last Macrista strongholds. The Córdoba province was already the strongest place for Macri in the 2015 elections, but the winner in the PASO was former governor De la Sota (he contested the UNA primary against Massa). The victory of Macri is unsurprising, as Córdoba has been always hostile to the Kirchner. But the result of Lavagna is rather poor considering it's his natal province and he was the leading candidate back in 2007 (Lavagna was the first and only peronist ever endorsed by the UCR). I think the current governor Schiaretti was part of the Alternativa Federal but, after the withdrawal of Massa and Pichetto, I don't know. Did he endorse Lavagna, side with Macri or stay neutral?

[Velasco]

Schiaretti largely stayed neutral, but he'll work with whoever wins the national elections, and while likely get a lot closer to Alberto Fernández if the latter wins

Obviously Schiaretti will approach Fernández,  because only a huge disaster could prevent the victory of the latter. People has spoken disowning the incompetent Macri administration. While I'm far from being a fan of the Kirchners and their allies, I wish all the best to Alberto Fernández. Tonight I contacted an Argentinian friend living in Buenos Aires, because I'm concerned by the repercusions of market hysteria. He told me that Fernández is not a radical and maybe he could offer the economic portfolio to Lavagna, who is by large the man with the best qualifications. In any case, regardless who is conducting the country's economy, Fernández & company must find a way to calm "the markets" and Macri must stop acting like an arsonist with his silly statements. Argentina needs desperately a competent administration and leave polarization behind. Luckily Cristina seems to be semi-retired and is adopting a quiet role...


I

[Velasco]

If we look all the PASO results for the congress. Cambiemos is actually gaining two seats in the senate comparing to how many seats the current class off 2015. Looking all the deputies they will gain three seats. FPV or FDT will as well gain seats mainly on the expense off federal peronism and smaller parties.

Nearly all "federal peronists" are now in Frente de Todos, particularly Sergio Massa. FPV no longer exists, but all its associated parties and organizations are in FDT (plus Massa's FR and nearly all the peronist governors). While FPV represented kirchnerismo, the FDT is a "peronist unity list" that incorporates "non-K peronists". On the other hand, parliamentary elections are very important for the future viability of ruling alliance Juntos por el Cambio (formerly Cambienos), now that the presidency seems to be lost.

According to La Nación, the projection of seats with the PASO results is the following

Chamber of Deputies (2019 seats in brackets)

Frente de Todos 117 (70)
Juntos por el Cambio (Macri and allies) 111 (48)
Non K peronists 8 (2)
Third Way (Lavagna's Consenso Federal) 6 (5)
Far Left (FIT) 2 (0)
Others 13 (5)
Total: 257

_{"Non K peronists" would win 2 seats in Córdoba (Gov Schiaretti's alliance)
"Others" are a number of provincial parties like the Civic Front for Santiago}

Senate

Frente de Todos 36 (14)
Juntos por el Cambio 28 (7)
Non K peronists 2 (0)
Third Way 1 (0)
Others 5 (3)
Total: 72 seats

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/paso-2019-proyeccion-bancas-que-diputados-senadores-nid2274718#
 

[Velasco]

I think the dynamic is in some aspects comparable with the relationship between canarian, basque, catalan parties with the national parties in spain but i'm not an expert in spanish politics u.u

The dynamic in Spain is more complex due to the existence of a national question in Catalonia and Basque Country (distinctive identity: language, culture, history). The Basque and the Catalan nationalist parties obviously defend the interests pf their territories (case of the PNV or the now defunct CiU). But they are more than mere vehicles, as they have an ideology and a political tradition based on the defence of their particular identities. Also, there is the issue of the Catalan separatist drive (from 2010-2012 onward).

Regionalists in the Canary Islands fit netter in this categorization, particularly the Canarian Coalition which governed the archipelago between 1993 and 2019. While in power, CC was often accused of governing in a pure cacique-style (corruption, patronage, cronyism). The Islands have a strong regional identity and some particular circumstances made them more similar to Latin America (there was a process of conquest and colonization, many islanders fled to America). Their characteristics are very different from Cat or BC (as well from mainland Spain) and there is not a sizeable separatist movement.

Also, in contrast with the Kirchnerist era, the opposition is almost entirely in the same coalition now and not dispersed. However, they would probably spit after december in some degree, there are already a lot of political leaders angry with the electoral strategy that brought them into this mess specially within the UCR. When Cambiemos was formed they expected to be a partner in the government, which formally they are (they have some ministers in the cabinet) but their role was almost non-existent in terms of the important decisions, only being relevant supporting the government bills in the congress

Regarding leaders angry with Macri's strategy, I think Bs As Gov María Eugenia Vidal is one of the most injured parties. She's more popular than the president and could have performed better in a gubernatorial election separated from the general election. While Macri was in a state of shock on election night, Vidal was able to say she would be self-critical (in sharp contrast with the deranged Lilita Carrió). Do you think there exists the possibility of a rift between Vidal and Macri? Also, in case of defeat in October, is Vidal a good contender to replace Macri?

[Velasco]

In order to compare with the projection of seats based on the PASO results, it'd be useful to check the Spanish Wiki entry of the 2015 legislative elections

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_legislativas_de_Argentina_de_2015

Chamber of Deputies:

FPV 59
Cambiemos 47
UNA 18
Progressives 2
CF 2
FIT 1
Provincial 1


It's remarkable that Cambiemos got a similar result in the 2015 legislative and the 2019 primaries. The Macri alliance got 32% of the vote in both elections. The difference is in the support garnered by the opposition peronists (Massa and Rodríguez Saá). Many of these voters presumably helped Macri to win the second round in 2015, but this time the peronists presented a united front. Of course economic slump plays against Macri in 2019, as dire economy and corruption damaged Cristina's 'heir' Scioli in 2015.

 UNA was the coalition led by Sergio Massa. Its successor Alternativa Federal splitted after CFdK made her bid for peronist reunification, stepping aside in favour of Alberto Férnández. Massa joined Frente de Todos, Pichetto joined Macri and Lavagna led the reminder allied with the parties of the Progressive coalition (PS, GEN, Libres del Sur)

The Rodríguez Saá brothers (Compromiso Federal) splitted between Fernández and Macri

[Velasco]

What is peronism?

What is love?

Evita is love! 😁

[Velasco]

What is peronism?

Anything you want it to be, really. I suppose you could describe it today as broad tent (personality-based) center-left to left-wing populism which retains protectionist, nationalist and corporatist views, but trying to accurately define Peronism is a futile exercise.

The Kirchners might fit in your description of today's Peronism. The problem is that they only represent a faction within a multiform and cross-ideological movement. Currently the kirchnerista faction is the largest and its leader is loved by 1/3 of Argentinians or so, but the divisive Cristina needed to ally with other factions and step aside to unite Peronism and be competitive. There is a great distance between the kirchnerista organization La Cámpora and moderate or conservative Peronists like Massa or Pichetto, or between the sindicalist Hugo Moyano and the technocrat Roberto Lavagna. Actually there are Peronists of all kinds: right-leaning and left-leaning, protectionists and advocates of free market. I'd say nationalism and sentimentalism are common traits to all Peronists. As you say, trying to find an appropriate definition is futile. I remember Al defined Peronism as a "collective delusion" when another poster made the same question time ago. Maybe we are the deluded, I don't know. There is something mystical or religious that makes Peronism impenetrable for me, but I love Peronists anyway

[Velasco]

I found this srticle in Forbes and it's surprisingly impartial in the description of economic policy during the Kirchner era. I mean, it's not Peronist friendly but avoids simplification making clear Argentina is not Venezuela.  Moreover, it says "Peronism was populist" but "managed to rebuild the economy" during the presidency of Néstor with people like Roberto Lavagna

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesinternational/2019/08/13/peronism-wins-but-argentina-wont-become-venezuela/

 
The main reason for his defeat (Macri) was that after almost four years in office, all the variables of the macro-economy worsened: inflation went from 25% to 50%, the dollar went from 15 pesos to 45 (and it is possible that it may jump to 60!), poverty increased from 30% to 34%, debt to the IMF multiplied, and the nation fell deeper into recession. The reasons for Macri’s failure are complex (...)

For foreign correspondents, and political or economic analysts, synthesizing a “return of populism” is the most accurate description, but at the same time it’s a simplification. Since 1945, throughout its 75 years of history (35 in government), Peronism knew how to be populist at the ideological extremes: from neo-liberalism to the extreme left.or foreign correspondents, and political or economic analysts, synthesizing a “return of populism” is the most accurate description, but at the same time it’s a simplification. Since 1945, throughout its 75 years of history (35 in government), Peronism knew how to be populist at the ideological extremes: from neo-liberalism to the extreme left.


During twelve years of Kirchnerism (2003-2015), Peronism was populist, but with diverse economic policies. During his first four years, together with figures such as Roberto Lavagna (who came in third place in Sunday’s primaries), Alfonso Prat Gay and Martín Redrado, Peronism managed to rebuild the economy after the country defaulted on its debt in 2001. Supported by the increase in commodities, it achieved years of economic growth at Chinese rates. Under the management of CFK, in a more hostile macroeconomic environment, high inflation, unemployment and corruption grew, as it did in other countries of the region (...)

 

[Velasco]

[qu

Respecting peronism and the new government, it's true that the Kirchernist era was much more left-wing "populist" (i don't use this term very often as i don't agree as how is usually used) than before. But there was also a context in Latin America and another economic situation. Peronism is pretty "chamaleonic". After all, they almost sold the entire state in the 90's...

I think the term "populist" is a wildcard that can be used in whatever context with whatever meaning. If you ask my ooinion, I'd say that nearly all Argentinian politicians are "populist" to me including CFdK, Macri and Massa. I'd only spare the sober Hermes Binner (Swiss ancestry, I believe), Roberto Lavagna and maybe Margarita Stolbizer. On the other hand, the rightwing Peronist Carlos Menem was a very interesting character, a populist in the Berlusconi's fashion who implemented neoliberal policies on the path of the Washington consensus

[Velasco]

It looks as though Macri may be doomed but what is the situation with Cambiemos and other anti Kirchener forces overall?  Are they facing deep losses or is the vlter anger mostly aimed at Macri himself?  I seem to remember Cambiemos doing well in the midterms despite Macri not being that popular.

The midterms in 2017 were a resonating victory for Macri over a divided peronist opposition. Even Cristina Fernández was defeated in the senatorial contest of Buenos Aires province by a mediocre candidate like Esteban Bullrich. I think the Bs As governor and Cambiemos rising star María Eugenia Vidal was more popular than Mauricio Macri, but the government's image was not as battered two years ago. Struggling econony and united opposition have reversed electoral fortunes and now both Macri and Vidal are bound to lose.