Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Shadows]

Democrats on Thursday afternoon sat out a vote on a proposal for a completely government-run health care system, denouncing it as a ploy designed to score political points against vulnerable red-state Democrats and drive a wedge between the party to distract from the GOP’s health care struggles.  Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) derided his own amendment as “socialized medicine” that makes up the “heart and soul” of the Democratic vision for health care.

Four Democrats and one independent — Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly and Angus King — voted with all of the chamber's Republicans against the amendment, which failed 0-57.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/27/single-payer-health-care-republicans-241035

What a dumbass backfire. What was supposed to catch all these Democrats in a split between alienating the base for opposing single payer vs offending swing voters with reservations about such a costly scheme, instead turned into a golden opportunity to allow swing state moderates up for reelection to go on record opposing single-payer and doing absolutely zilch to offend 99 + percent of the base by allowing the rest of the Democrats to vote present. This is f****** Keystone Cops level legislative strategy

It does show that single-payer is probably a non-starter even if the Democrats control Congress and the Presidency in 2020. The Democrats (and Angus King) who voted against didn't have to do so.

What? Every Democrat you mentioned is facing a tough reelection in a solid Trump state. King is the only one who arguably didn't need to do so.

 When single-payer actually may have a chance of passing, every one of those votes are still up for grabs.

True. King is a weak guy who has balked under pressure before too. Manchin, Heitkamp are from Deep red states, Donnelly, Tester & McCaskill are also from solid red states at the Presidential level. They are all expected to speak against Single Payer. Tester said now is not the time & Manchin said he doesn't support it but is looking into it & studying it.

Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp & Tester may lose in 2018, there'll probably be 1 or 2 out of them after 2018 (who can then be pressurized). McCaskill not voting against it is surprising, as is 43 Senators not coming out against it (atleast fearing a backlash). If you have a President Sanders winning with a 7-8% PV margin, with a 60% favorability rating, most of these people will be bullied into submission.

It is just that 60 votes will never come, so Dems need to let go off the filibuster (in which case they can even lose 1/2/3 votes). But then, that is a different debate. I am happy with the results except King who is in a North-Eastern somewhat liberal state which Hillary won & where Sanders' politics is quite popular !

[Xing]

Good to know that McConnell won't be getting his golden middle finger to Obama. Also, congrats, Senator Rosen and Senator whoever runs against Gardner.

[Badger]

Good to know that McConnell won't be getting his golden middle finger to Obama. Also, congrats, Senator Rosen and Senator whoever runs against Gardner.

Yeah, McConnell managed to royally fu%k Heller over with this Fiasco.

[Person Man]

Good to know that McConnell won't be getting his golden middle finger to Obama. Also, congrats, Senator Rosen and Senator whoever runs against Gardner.

Yeah, McConnell managed to royally fu%k Heller over with this Fiasco.

Senator Perlmutter?

[Tintrlvr]

Democrats on Thursday afternoon sat out a vote on a proposal for a completely government-run health care system, denouncing it as a ploy designed to score political points against vulnerable red-state Democrats and drive a wedge between the party to distract from the GOP’s health care struggles.  Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) derided his own amendment as “socialized medicine” that makes up the “heart and soul” of the Democratic vision for health care.

Four Democrats and one independent — Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly and Angus King — voted with all of the chamber's Republicans against the amendment, which failed 0-57.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/27/single-payer-health-care-republicans-241035

What a dumbass backfire. What was supposed to catch all these Democrats in a split between alienating the base for opposing single payer vs offending swing voters with reservations about such a costly scheme, instead turned into a golden opportunity to allow swing state moderates up for reelection to go on record opposing single-payer and doing absolutely zilch to offend 99 + percent of the base by allowing the rest of the Democrats to vote present. This is f****** Keystone Cops level legislative strategy

It does show that single-payer is probably a non-starter even if the Democrats control Congress and the Presidency in 2020. The Democrats (and Angus King) who voted against didn't have to do so.

What? Every Democrat you mentioned is facing a tough reelection in a solid Trump state. King is the only one who arguably didn't need to do so.

 When single-payer actually may have a chance of passing, every one of those votes are still up for grabs.

Sure they had an option - they could not vote, just like the rest of the Democrats did. "So-and-so didn't vote on single-payer healthcare" is hardly a winning campaign ad. While it's certainly *possible* that they could change their minds, this makes it look unlikely. Plus, single-payer would need 60 votes; you're not just looking at getting unity on the Democratic side but actually peeling off a handful of Republicans as well (can't see the Democrats being better than 55-45 in control of the Senate in 2020).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

[Confused Democrat]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

This implies either McCain dying or retiring...

[Beet]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

[Beet]

Oh, I know it's unlikely, but it's quite realistic. I'm not convinced Tammy Baldwin or Bill Nelson are safe, either. The Democrats are just so out of touch.

[OneJ]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

I'm curious as to why you think Tester is more vulnerable than say McCaskill.

[Beet]

I just went from West to East, except for Michigan.

[Tintrlvr]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

This implies either McCain dying or retiring...

Given his diagnosis, I would say it is more likely than not that McCain is dead by the 2018 election, morbid though that may be.

[Person Man]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

This implies either McCain dying or retiring...

Given his diagnosis, I would say it is more likely than not that McCain is dead by the 2018 election, morbid though that may be.

Maybe he gets into a great trial for a new gene therapy or something? Many turn out to not take but some do!

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

John Podhoretz blames Trump for the failure:

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/obamacare-donald-trumps-fault/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[maga2020]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

Don't be dumb. You know that it would take a Republican wave for Democrats to lose all those seats, let alone more than like 3 or 4.

Democrats will lose all of them plus PA, filibuster-proof majority.

[BudgieForce]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

Don't be dumb. You know that it would take a Republican wave for Democrats to lose all those seats, let alone more than like 3 or 4.

Democrats will lose all of them plus PA, filibuster-proof majority.

LoL

[Dr. Arch]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

Don't be dumb. You know that it would take a Republican wave for Democrats to lose all those seats, let alone more than like 3 or 4.

Democrats will lose all of them plus PA, filibuster-proof majority.

LoL

As overconfident as Democrats were in 2009. Have fun with that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

Don't be dumb. You know that it would take a Republican wave for Democrats to lose all those seats, let alone more than like 3 or 4.

Democrats will lose all of them plus PA, filibuster-proof majority.

Senators from the party out of the White House are rarely taken out during midterms. Even with the GOP favorable map, the negative political environment will make the task of unseating the majority of the Democratic senators in competitive states incredibly difficult. They'd be lucky if they just managed to take out McCaskill and one other. Anything beyond that would take close to a miracle the way things are going right now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

ObamaCare still isn't safe.

They could get one more anti ObamaCare senator in this congress if McCain or Menendez are replaced.

And the Senate map next year bad for Democrats. ObamaCare might come down to a few House Republicans next congress.

[Person Man]

ObamaCare still isn't safe.

They could get one more anti ObamaCare senator in this congress if McCain or Menendez are replaced.

And the Senate map next year bad for Democrats. ObamaCare might come down to a few House Republicans next congress.

Ducey is not replacing McCain with an anti-ACA Republican and I am confident even if the GOP maintains a 220 seat majority, tgey won't have the votes in the House.

[BudgieForce]

Trump threatening to cut off CSR payments to insurance companies. That would raise premiums by an estimated 20%.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/891334415347060736
@realDonaldTrump
"If a new HealthCare Bill is not approved quickly, BAILOUTS for Insurance Companies and BAILOUTS for Members of Congress will end very soon!|

[Hindsight was 2020]

Trump threatening to cut off CSR payments to insurance companies. That would raise premiums by an estimated 20%.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/891334415347060736
@realDonaldTrump
"If a new HealthCare Bill is not approved quickly, BAILOUTS for Insurance Companies and BAILOUTS for Members of Congress will end very soon!|

Go for it fatty

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Trump wants to give Dems the house, and reduce the republican senate majority to 51-49 (Rs gain MO, lose NV, AZ), then I invite him to stop the CSRs.

[Yank2133]

Trump is trying to destroy the Republican party.

[Yank2133]

Republicans need to give up and move to tax reform. They have burnt so much political capital on this farce.

Seriously, just increase the subsidies and move on.