Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition (user search)
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  Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition (search mode)
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition  (Read 95472 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Canada
« on: August 06, 2011, 03:04:06 PM »

Here is some more chatter about the recall elections for you.

Good article, besides the disgusting boasting about Scott Walker "being vindicated" when his goons in relatively safe districts are in trouble. The reason Democrats aren't going after the Republicans on collective bargaining is that non-unionized swing voters don't care about it as much as the education cuts and public workers are already more than sufficiently fired about it.

None of these districts are bastions of unions. Kapanke's district is rural farmland that's been progressive since the late 1800s, Darling's is a mix of posh urban neighborhoods and exurbs that care little about "union rights" and much more about their education system etc. Democrats are only avoiding collective bargaining because these are red districts and swing voters are more likely to be swayed by their child's education being gutted than public worker's complaining about something that doesn't affect them.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Canada
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2011, 09:03:30 PM »

Doesn't the downplaying of the collective bargaining issue hurt in some ways? Every state has made deep cuts in education for instance, so I would think running against the "gutting of education" would not produce as much of a response considering the acknowledge need for states to control their budgets. It just wouldn't seem that you have the kind of effect were you to run against what you have termed a partisan power grab, which would in my opinion have an effect on swing voters even if they don't particularly care much about unions. We'll get to see whether this was a wise strategy, fairly shortly, I guess.

Firing your kid's band teacher makes people a lot more angry than taking away collective bargaining from people you may or may not know.

Not to mention the average person at this point has never been a member of a union or even a relative of someone in a union so they have no real grasp of what collective bargaining is and its importance.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Canada
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2011, 12:00:28 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2011, 12:29:36 PM by Tommy Carcetti »

Race ratings for each Senator:

Dan Kapanke - Likely D
Randy Hopper - Tilt D
Luther Olson - Tossup
Alberta Darling - Lean R
Rob Cowles - Lean R/Likely R
Shelia Harsdorf - Lean R/Likely R

There are no guaranteed wins here outside of Schilling beating Kapanke.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Canada
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2011, 01:49:07 AM »

Time for some predictions:

Jennifer Schilling 57%
Dan Kapanke 43%

Jessica King 52%
Randy Hopper 48%

Fred Clark 50.1%
Luther Olson 49.9%

Alberta Darling 51%
Sandy Pasch 49%

Shelia Harsdorf 54%
Shelly Moore 46%

Robert Cowles 55%
Some Dude (has this race been covered at all?) 45%
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