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Is it possible that whatever gains DA makes among formers ANC voters are offset by defections to the PA, and that the party ends up with a similar vote share to 2019?

Certainly could be the case. I personally suspect the answer lies in differential turnout of whites vs coloured, and both vs the rest. That won't really be resolved until the count can be decently modeled. That said, the DA turning off former coloured voters was expected, as you can see further back in the thread. A bit of further evidence:

Spruitdrift Primary School, Matzikama, Western Cape, mostly coloured voters, but also some white voters:

DA 54% (-12)
ANC 22% (-1)
PA 14% (+14)
FF 6% (+1)

That -12% for the DA is the level that begins to threaten the provincial majority. But pending many other variables.

And some rural Western Cape coming as well:

Klaarstroom community hall, Prince Albert, coloured and white voters.

DA 51% (-12)
PA 46% (+46)
ANC 2% (-28)

Turnout: 94%

Even if I weren't hitched up, I doubt it would work. I dated a Republican for about a year when I was younger. It didn't work. It can't work if you are fundamentally opposed to that person's worldview.

If Josh Stein doesn’t win I’ll cry

The second Trump wins the election (if he wins, which looks increasingly likely) Netanyahu will withdraw all troops from Gaza. Biden only gave him 99% of what he wanted, and that's not enough for the most pampered, entitled country on the planet.

The fact that supposed moderates like Gantz still haven't pulled their war cabinet support to stop this madness reflects awfully on their character too. This is a very sick society.

Leftists are completely delusional about what Palestinian culture is. They think this is some indigenous, peaceful tribe like Mayan civilization in 3000 BC (of course they are wrong about this too) when you listen to some of their language. Unfortunately, reality on the ground suggests if given the capacity they would kill every Jewish person they could.

I'm sure bombing refugee camps will totally change their culture.

Both Gantz and Galland gave a three week deadline that hasn’t passed yet

Not holding my breath.

What is your solution to the conflict then? Eliminate Israel's Jewish majority?

Yeah.

End of minority rule (apartheid).

Glad you finally just came clean about the end game. You danced around it for months. Why is it that Israel gets eliminated but other countries like the Netherlands, Hungary, Romania don't? Couldn't at all be because of the country's Jewish majority? There is no minority rule because the West Bank and Gaza are to be part of a Palestinian state, not Israel.

It must be a scary prospect for Jews to be treated by Palestinians the way Palestinians are treated by Jews right now.

If you treat others the way that you want to be treated, it wouldn't be so scary when the shoe is on the other foot.

Yes, the Jews need to know what it’s like to be oppressed, they’ve never known that before

It’s looking like a repeat of 2021 in that everywhere is turning against whoever is the dominant party there.

Context aside, it's not exactly a phrase one associates with the good guys. Why do Republican women who try to look tough for Trump so often come across as sadists?

Just saying its weird to see Bangladeshis and Indonesians reject Rohingyas and not care about that but then care so much about Israel/Gaza at a unanimous level.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2024/05/25/embracing-humanity-a-call-to-rethink-refugee-policies-in-indonesia.html

First line literally speaks about Aceh which is the most religious province in Indonesia and has Shariah law and shows how they now dislike Rohingyas. Almost certainly still avid supporters of the Palestinian cause.

Because it’s not about ‘solidarity’ with fellow Muslims, it’s about the continued rage at the loss of Jerusalem to the Yahood

 Is it possible that whatever gains DA makes among formers ANC voters are offset by defections to the PA, and that the party ends up with a similar vote share to 2019?

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

I mostly agree returning to my parent's home in rural New Hampshire with one exception. Dobbs brought to life the Democratic performance in state legislative races where they went from around 33% to 44% while the rest of the ticket remained non existent. It's often not enough to win seats, but some previously apolitical folks have run for legislature posy Dobbs in 2022 and recieved crossover support.

However, I also know plenty who voted Democratic for legislature for the first time in 2022, may do so in 2024 but would never think of voting for Biden.

Right to Life are grassroots strong here. If Democrats choose to campaign on abortion Biden might get less votes than RFK Jr.

Achieving your goal and it turning out to be a disaster isn't a good way to maximize turnout, actually.

Depends who you talk to on it being a disaster. Again, we're talking rural white America. We're not talking people living in the suburbs. We're not talking people living in the cities. I'm Libertarian Party Chairman in the county and "what does your party think about abortion?" is probably the question I've been asked most often the past few years at public events when people delve into what our beliefs are.

Democrats' calculus for running for electoral office at this point in time is they don't want or need rural areas. In a state like Indiana, that pretty much dooms the whole state party to failure. The past state Democratic Chair John Zody was a total failure of a leader that never realized there were more than 10 counties in the state. He got replaced by Mike Schmuhl who worked in the Buttigieg campaign and Schmuhl has talked about we have to reach out to these areas for the simple reason of election math for Indiana Democrats to win dictates they have to cut down the losing margins (no different than Trump and the black vote), but I've seen no action that actually makes those counties want to swing left or localized enthusiasm to demonstrate momentum such as Democrats in these areas driven to run for office. If you didn't vote for Biden in 2020 in a rural county, why would you vote for him now? Throw on top of it the Kennedy factor where he's going to take from Trump and Biden. Biden will finish 3rd in some counties in this country in November I'm willing to bet. It already happened for Democrats in Indiana, 4 years ago their candidate for Governor finished 3rd in 32 of the state's 92 counties behind the Libertarian.

Organizationally, since our Libertarian Party county affiliate was inaugurated a few years, we've done more than the Democrats every year as far as reaching the public with our message. I've met the Democratic Party county chair and talked to her cordially before, I can't tell you a damn thing she does. They have a Facebook page, but we have that as well. If that is an example of how rural Democrats as a whole are operating, how can rural areas swing left?

This is to say nothing of how dangerous it is to be a Democrat running for office in a rural area. I remember MTG's 2020 opponent had to drop out due to the death threats he was receiving.

3, 5, and 10 are my favorites.