Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Sbane]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.

Well Washington replaces Massachusetts as the most likely then.

California a little way behind due to the high minority population.

So let's see here. You don't see a problem with Maine voting even more strongly against gay marriage because most of the voters there were white? Only if minorities cause something you favor to fail you see a problem with it? It always seems like the California results seem to piss off people more than all the other states where whites voted against gay marriage (btw whites voted 49-51 for prop 8, only 7 points away from the result). Minorities shouldn't have a say, right? Maybe the no on 8 campaign could have done a better job communicating with minorities, but no, they should just fall in line on their own. And if they don't, ridicule them. And if lobster fisherman in Maine don't vote for gay marriage, well at least they were white and have a right to be heard, yeah?

I mean let's ignore other variables such as say religiousness, class backgrounds and professions of the voters and let's focus on the melanin content!

[Sbane]

Who knew there were so many DINOs in MN?

Can't blame it non-whites here either. It's a matter of class really, which in a state like California makes it seem like its the Blacks and Hispanics opposed to gay marriage.

[Sbane]

The above numbers are why we eventually need a Supreme Court decision to institute gay marriage across the country. I just hope the end result is more like Loving v. Virginia as opposed to Roe v. Wade. I think it will be the former....

Also Blacks support gay marriage more than Whites. That had to be said.

[Sbane]

The low numbers in Illinois are surprising.

Also these state numbers don't square with national numbers showing gay marriage support at about 50%.

Maybe it's just PPP showing lower numbers for gay marriage support than there is?

Also we shouldn't be surprised at lower numbers for gay marriage in the Midwest. Still, Illinois should be higher than that if half of the people in this country support gay marriage.

[Sbane]

South Carolina (PPP)

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 27%
It should not ........... .62%
Not sure ................. .10%

Q11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

25% - Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
29% - Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
43% - There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
4% - Not sure

So it looks like if it weren't for the fact that likely any Republican who voted for it would get primaried, civil unions would be passable in South Carolina.

Again, Blacks are more supportive of gay marriage than Whites, just like in GA.

[Sbane]

Unfortunately, the Democrats in the NJ Legislature took the "principled stance" and didn't take up Christie's offer for a referendum. There may be times when it's okay to take a stance like that, but not when you can actually win. Marriage equality almost certainly would have won at the ballot box in 2012 (and quite possibly in prior years as well). If the Supreme Court does not make a 50-state ruling this year, NJ Democrats had better take up Christie's offer ASAP.

What incentive to they have to get same sex marriage passed now? They can just use this as another issue to campaign against the republicans.

[Sbane]

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

For an issue like Gay Marriage, I think it could happen.