Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 501609 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #975 on: September 23, 2008, 02:41:01 PM »

Hmmm...  Must've missed that.  Guess I need new glasses (although I don't wear glasses).  Smiley
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Rococo4
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« Reply #976 on: September 23, 2008, 02:51:41 PM »
Quote from: Reds4 on September 23, 2008, 02:21:31 PM
RowanBrandon,

Thanks for posting the internals of this poll on a daily basis. Much appreciated!

yeah seriously i second that....very helpful. 
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #977 on: September 24, 2008, 08:33:48 AM »
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Obama 49 (+1)
McCain 47 (-1)

Giant Obama sample last night, apparently.
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Zarn
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« Reply #978 on: September 24, 2008, 08:34:50 AM »
6, 7, 8, points?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #979 on: September 24, 2008, 08:36:23 AM »

According to my chart - Obama 6.19% to 9.18%
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jmfcst
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« Reply #980 on: September 24, 2008, 08:44:59 AM »

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys
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Zarn
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« Reply #981 on: September 24, 2008, 08:51:10 AM »
Quote from: jmfcst on September 24, 2008, 08:44:59 AM

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys

I think this is why they have a three day average.
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Alcon
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« Reply #982 on: September 24, 2008, 08:51:52 AM »
Quote from: Zarn on September 24, 2008, 08:51:10 AM
Quote from: jmfcst on September 24, 2008, 08:44:59 AM

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys

I think this is why they have a three day average.

Way out of MoE.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #983 on: September 24, 2008, 08:53:46 AM »
NH and Colorado Pres/Senate numbers later today. Good stuff.
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Zarn
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« Reply #984 on: September 24, 2008, 09:00:41 AM »
Quote from: Alcon on September 24, 2008, 08:51:52 AM
Quote from: Zarn on September 24, 2008, 08:51:10 AM
Quote from: jmfcst on September 24, 2008, 08:44:59 AM

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys

I think this is why they have a three day average.

Way out of MoE.

I never really believed in MoE.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #985 on: September 24, 2008, 09:03:47 AM »
Quote from: Zarn on September 24, 2008, 08:51:10 AM
Quote from: jmfcst on September 24, 2008, 08:44:59 AM

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys

I think this is why they have a three day average.

true, and Obama +2 brings Ras more in line with the results of other polls
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #986 on: September 24, 2008, 09:05:51 AM »
Quote from: Alcon on September 24, 2008, 08:51:52 AM
Quote from: Zarn on September 24, 2008, 08:51:10 AM
Quote from: jmfcst on September 24, 2008, 08:44:59 AM

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys

I think this is why they have a three day average.

Way out of MoE.

It'll all correct itself in the long run.  But obviously, one or both of these samples screams outlier.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #987 on: September 24, 2008, 09:06:04 AM »
There's probably a reason why we're not supposed to see the one day samples. Tongue
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pepper11
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« Reply #988 on: September 24, 2008, 09:10:44 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2008, 09:26:36 AM by pepper11 »
Those one day totals are a total farce. The are not listed even on premium membership.  McCain did not win Sunday by 5 and Obama did not win yesterday by 6 or 7. 

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Brittain33
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« Reply #989 on: September 24, 2008, 09:14:40 AM »
Quote from: pepper11 on September 24, 2008, 09:10:44 AM

By the way, McCain now leads in New Hampshire 49-47

That's one poll by UNH only.
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pepper11
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« Reply #990 on: September 24, 2008, 09:17:13 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2008, 09:18:44 AM by pepper11 »
No its by someone else.
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J. J.
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« Reply #991 on: September 24, 2008, 09:17:40 AM »
Quote from: TheresNoMoney on September 24, 2008, 08:53:46 AM
NH and Colorado Pres/Senate numbers later today. Good stuff.

That will be the one I'm waiting for.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #992 on: September 24, 2008, 09:18:40 AM »
Quote from: pepper11 on September 24, 2008, 09:10:44 AM
Those one day totals are a total farce. The are not listed even on premium membership.  McCain did not win Sunday by 5 and Obama did not win yesterday by 6 or 7. 

By the way, McCain now leads in New Hampshire 49-47 and Palin is still more popular than Biden.

So, in other words you're saying that the one-day totals Rowan gives us are not on premium membership?  What say you, Rowan?  One-day totals can be outliers like this, but if I have to buy premium membership for myself to know for sure, I will.  Smiley

I see no reason to not believe the last two things you posted.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #993 on: September 24, 2008, 09:20:38 AM »
Quote from: TheresNoMoney on September 24, 2008, 08:53:46 AM
NH and Colorado Pres/Senate numbers later today. Good stuff.

Sweet. Those are the two states I really want to see at the moment (from Scott anyway).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #994 on: September 24, 2008, 09:22:00 AM »
Quote from: brittain33 on September 24, 2008, 09:14:40 AM
Quote from: pepper11 on September 24, 2008, 09:10:44 AM

By the way, McCain now leads in New Hampshire 49-47

That's one poll by UNH only.

The UNH poll was 47-45.  ARG's poll was 48-45  Either he's giving us Rasmussen's new numbers (which might be available to premium members), he's lying, or there is some other poll that will come out those numbers.
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pepper11
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« Reply #995 on: September 24, 2008, 09:24:11 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2008, 09:26:02 AM by pepper11 »
edit
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #996 on: September 24, 2008, 09:29:56 AM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on September 24, 2008, 09:22:00 AM
The UNH poll was 47-45.  ARG's poll was 48-45  

The UNH poll was crap (taken over 7 days and bad demographics) and the ARG poll was taken at McCain's high point two weeks ago.

Very interested in the Ras poll coming out at noon.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #997 on: September 24, 2008, 09:56:15 AM »
Quote from: TheresNoMoney on September 24, 2008, 09:29:56 AM
Quote from: Sam Spade on September 24, 2008, 09:22:00 AM
The UNH poll was 47-45.  ARG's poll was 48-45  

The UNH poll was crap (taken over 7 days and bad demographics) and the ARG poll was taken at McCain's high point two weeks ago.

Very interested in the Ras poll coming out at noon.

Also the ARG poll was an ARG poll.
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Zarn
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« Reply #998 on: September 24, 2008, 10:01:38 AM »
Also, NH is a state that likes to mess with us. It's like the residents switch between saying McCain and Obama with every call just to make us draw a big question mark.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #999 on: September 24, 2008, 10:04:39 AM »
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