Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Omega21]

This is a thread dedicated to Austria. Please keep discussions about politics of other countries to their respective threads.

I think Andi just accidentally copied it into the wrong thread ...

Just trying to keep those pesky migrating posts from corrupting this Austrian thread.

A noble cause indeed!

[Omega21]

UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP

British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FPÖ-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FPÖ needs to be sidelined here.

The important bits are the stuff they don’t want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isn’t budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

That’s why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FPÖ-led Interior Ministry ...

And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.

In this case, the BVT needs to be put under the supervision of the Chancellery, instead of the Interior Ministry. Problem: the FPÖ would not vote for it unless Kurz threatens to blow up the coalition.

Either that, or Kurz should receive the full data load from abroad. Leaving Austria in the dark about the Russians is not cool.

Well then isolate them, then. Or else wait till the next election and form a new coalition government with SPÖ or Neös or something.

It’s been clear that FPÖ is a security risk, from the inside link by Neonazis and their strong ties, almost allegiance to Russia. Or risk being in the dark for quite some time.

Austria is arguably now safer as it is not importing new threats DUE to the FPÖ.

Your loving SPÖ imported the threats in the first place, and you cannot factually dispute that.

Plus, American paranoia makes me cringe. In a lot of things, the US and Russia are no different, although the US offers vastly more freedom to its citizens. You both reject the International court and you both overthrow/prop-up regimes (Saudi Arabia, Panama, Iran), so please stop acting like you are the definition of justice and honour.

[Omega21]

UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP

British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FPÖ-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FPÖ needs to be sidelined here.

The important bits are the stuff they don’t want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isn’t budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

That’s why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FPÖ-led Interior Ministry ...

And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.

In this case, the BVT needs to be put under the supervision of the Chancellery, instead of the Interior Ministry. Problem: the FPÖ would not vote for it unless Kurz threatens to blow up the coalition.

Either that, or Kurz should receive the full data load from abroad. Leaving Austria in the dark about the Russians is not cool.

Well then isolate them, then. Or else wait till the next election and form a new coalition government with SPÖ or Neös or something.

It’s been clear that FPÖ is a security risk, from the inside link by Neonazis and their strong ties, almost allegiance to Russia. Or risk being in the dark for quite some time.

Austria is arguably now safer as it is not importing new threats DUE to the FPÖ.

Your loving SPÖ imported the threats in the first place, and you cannot factually dispute that.

Plus, American paranoia makes me cringe. In a lot of things, the US and Russia are no different, although the US offers vastly more freedom to its citizens. You both reject the International court and you both overthrow/prop-up regimes (Saudi Arabia, Panama, Iran), so please stop acting like you are the definition of justice and honour.

While I don’t hide that I detest the FPÖ, I wasn’t trying to cover for the United States. I was merely pointing out that Austria will be separated and isolated from the rest of the NATO coalition until the security issue with FPÖ is resolved. How you can get that from me, a person who screetches about US interventionist attitudes nonstop, is a mystery.

I’m not going to debate you on Immigration in Austria, as I can tell that you won’t budge from your absolutism nor do I have the ability to spam evidence appropriately enough for the onlookers, after all I can’t read German. Nor will I get off-topic on the discussion at hand, that Austria is a security concern for NATO due to having leaks in the government due to elements having Russian alignment. So debate me on that. What do you think about the current shunning of Austria by other intelligence partners? Do you prefer to break from NATO? Is being in the Russian sphere optimal for your envisioned future for Austrian society?

You probably already know this, Austria is not and will not be a member of NATO (or any other military alliance).

As for the intelligence, calling up the Austrian authorities and saying "Hey, you know that *insert name here* dude, yeah he might be a terrorist" is of no value to Russia, and that's one of the most important aspects of Intelligence for Austria, and as already said, there is no real reason to stop sharing that information.

As for other things, Austria is not really a player on the World Stage, and Vienna is a hub for US/Nato  and Russian spies as it is (American NSA Villa in Vienna or the Austrian officer who was arrested after sharing info with Russians).

I also doubt that the FPÖ is sharing any Top Secret info with Russia because one mistake could be very costly for them. The last FPÖ government was a disaster, so they realize they have a limited number of mistakes they can make before being sidelined again, for a long long time (or until a new mass migration wave happens).

IMO, Limiting Austria's access is pretty dumb considering that no "Intel sharing/passing" actually happened.

[Omega21]

A new "Profil" magazine poll shows that 49% of Austrians do not think the FPÖ is competent enough or suited to be a government party, while 40% think they are.

9/10 SPÖ-voters think the FPÖ is not competent enough, compared with 30% of ÖVP-voters.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190504_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-knapp-die-haelfte-der-oesterreicher-haelt-fpoe-fuer-nicht-regierungsfaehig

Well yeah, since, unlike their name, the Socialists don't really attract workers, but hip city/upper middle-class people, as I'm sure most of the lower middle class is satisfied with the Reforms being worked on, so I doubt they would write them off so quickly.

[Omega21]

Oh God Strache, what have you done...

[Omega21]

Oh God Strache, what have you done...

He did something anyone else in the party would have done. It fits well with the constant corruption scandals, exposed from Italy to Sweden and France to Romania, that seem to follow Right wing populists. Almost like there is something in their worldview that enables this sort of behavior?

In this video, no actual crimes were committed, and yet, the same cannot be said for Hillary, who still ran for President in spite of her well-proven scandal with confidential information.

At least Europe has some standards, and he will most likely resign for his mistakes.

(and he should)

So, please feel free to correct me if I am wrong, or is Hillary also considered right-wing nowadays?

[Omega21]

Goddamnit.

I've never been so sad for Austria...

Please, do us right wingers proud in the Netherlands.

it's nice to see strache down. there are also many in ovp who are on russian dirty payroll.

When will you people stop with the constant Russophobia?

Also, I didn't see Tender mention it:

ALL OF THE PEOPLE IN THE VIDEO WERE ACTORS, NOT REAL RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS

That is the official statement of the Newspaper that released it.

[Omega21]

Another thing that has been brought up on Social Media:

Considering how foreign international media (and for the trap video, probably foreign intelligence services) collaborated and conspired to take Strache down, what about the death of former FPÖ-leader Jörg Haider in retrospect ?

Do we still believe that he died in a car "accident", or did foreign powers indeed had something to do with it - manipulating his car/drinks - before he had the car crash, as was suspected in conspiracy theories ?

Definitely no accident.

Both were taken down, but at least Strache had the ability to avoid it, too bad he didn't...

Dying in a land yacht (the Paethon is an equivalent to the Audi A8) and being recorded by actors who sat on it for 2 years?

Sure smells like a conspiracy to me.

[Omega21]

Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FPÖ as government member if he can also force FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FPÖ's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.

[Omega21]

Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FPÖ as government member if he can also force FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FPÖ's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.

Yeah, somehow I will miss the ÖVP-FPÖ government's steady work on the topic of immigration.

Just recently, they passed the headscarf ban in elementary schools (after it was passed for kindergartens already) and Kickl was in the process of streamlining the asylum system in Austria and to put it fully under government oversight, rather than the current system being run by the state and (heavily pro-immigration) charities and NGOs. Deportations of criminal and rejected foreigners are up, new asylum requests down a lot.

Yeah, my wish would be a full cleanup (Strache, Gudenus and Kickl), and a stable coalition with Hofer.

I'm sad to see Strache go, but he brought it upon himself, unfortunately.

At least it shows that Austria has some standards, unlike certain other countries where you get rewarded for breaking the law. *cough Hillary*

[Omega21]

Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...

[Omega21]

Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...

The only FPÖ-cabinet members I see as tolerable to remain in a continued government are:

* Norbert Hofer (has done a good job as infrastructure minister and unveiled incentives for e-mobility and renewable energy and almost had 50% as a Presidential candidate, so he's vital for the FPÖ's future chances)

* Mario Kunasek (does an acceptable job as Defense Minister, without controversies)

* Hubert Fuchs (is actually not an FPÖ-member, was appointed by the FPÖ as State Secretary for Finance and is an expert on tax issues and how to weed out silly regulations and a data nerd)

---

On the other hand, Kickl (Interior), Kneissl (Foreign Minister, danced with Putin at her wedding and bowed to him) and Hartinger-Klein (Health) are all troublesome and scandal-prone.

I don't really agree with Kneissl and Klein, because they are not that controversial...

Kneissl did nothing wrong except having a good relationship with Russia, and Klein, well, you can't really be that controversial as Health minister lol...

Yeah, all of this will probably happen. Kickl will be forced out, the FPÖ will be forced to be completely emasculated and will have to accept the dominance of the liberal progressive establishment. An expensive and painful lesson for all right-wingers all across the continent: one mistake (which was inexcusable, no misconceptions about it) can be the downfall of your entire project. Meanwhile the high-speed train towards liberal dictatorship only accelerates. This was one of the few non-post-Communist countries for which I still had high hopes. But at this point I'm not so sure anymore.

Hopefully, others will learn from his mistakes so that no future right-wing parties are destroyed the same way.

I'm sure FvD will become a target very soon, if not already.

[Omega21]

In the video, there is also talk of "Kurz's sex orgies"

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neues-brisantes-Video-aufgetaucht-Strache-spricht-ueber-Sex-Orgien-von-Kurz/380589584

[Omega21]

Other than the sensationalist sex stuff, I wonder if this could somehow blow up and envelope the OVP as well. That's probably the most obvious reason why Kurtz would call new elections. He really does need to get in front of this and put a lot of distance between the story and his government. It's hard to do that in partnership with the party that caused all of this.

Nah, Kurz can only gain from mad Strache voters. At the time of recording, they were not partners, and plus, such dirty campaigning is known to be used across Austria's left.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silberstein-Aff%C3%A4re

(Just right click and translate to English, sadly I don't think there is an English version)

[Omega21]

All happening today, just watching the end of the election results in Australia!

Tender thanks for all the updates and a question for you, why would Kurz hold off holding the election until Sep/Oct if he collapses the coalition, isn't that a bit risky?

Why not hold the election in late June or is that too tight a timetable under Austrian election law?

Vielen dank,

DC

Too tight.

The Austrian election calendar is ca. 80-90 days long (I would have to look it up) starting the day the parliament is dissolved and a new election is set.

So, the earliest date would be in August, if the parliament decides next week already to hold a new election.

But nobody would ever vote in August or early September because of the summer vacation for students. Only if students are back in school and the parents back home from vacation and that's in mid-September.

What is your personal hope, a continuation with Hofer or new elections?

I basically see any coalition breakdown only resulting in a new "emasculated" Kurz without all the good immigration/benefit cuts in favour of citizens/longtime residents, which I personally hold very dear to my heart (even though I'm a relatively new immigrant lol).

[Omega21]

Just resign Kickl goddamnit, I refuse to see new migration waves.

[Omega21]

FPÖ and ÖVP circles saying New Elections are now a sure thing.

[Omega21]

and with new elections the question is, what if the results are fairly similar to the last ones?

As Tender said, Greens Neos and Kurz is most likely.

[Omega21]

this are good news from Austria.

this story is really disgusting.

i hope the people of Austria (and other European countries as well) realize, what kind of people this FPÖ/afd/lega/fn… really are.

What kind of people are they? Do you believe Europe's mainstream parties are beacons of integrity? At least here in Germany there is a revolving door between parliament and various companies/lobbying groups.

Fully agree.

Not long ago, the SPÖ was caught employing a "dirty campaign architect", who was later arrested and charged with multiple offences, so not much better.

[Omega21]

  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SPÖ, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

Don't you fear a Green Red Pink government?

I don't think you will like their open door/money for all policies...

[Omega21]

It is certainly possible that Böhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesn’t want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.

[Omega21]

It is certainly possible that Böhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesn’t want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.

Gudenus' wife is Bosnian Serb, but yes, the FPÖ's loss of power runs against Serbian interests.

As to the Russians...I guess they are as likely to take out Strache and Gudenus for getting caught? Would be a very different thing if Böhmermann was Russian or ex-Soviet and thus seen as a traitor.

The people in the video are actors, not oligarchs, and the villa was rented on Airbnb. (not some conspiracy, it was already in the original article that published it).  

So, someone hired actors, rented the cars and the villa, and set the whole thing up, which would not be good for that person's health if Russia is interested enough in finding out who smeared a Russian friendly party.

[Omega21]

Russian Businessman/Oligarch, Igor Makarov, announced he will use all possible legal options to shed light on the woman who used his name falsely (posing as his niece).

I assume she is already somewhere in the Western sphere of Influence, as going back to Russia would not be a very smart move.

[Omega21]

So, we can kiss direct democracy goodbye?

[Omega21]

  I"m still intrigued about the FPO under Hofer, and thinking he might be able to right the ship, and if he does, Kurz's vision of an OVP with near 40% of the vote is not happening.  Maybe I'm thinking too much about his solid performance as Presidential candidate in 2016.

He is considered very calm and "moderate", and he's had very few (probably none at all?) controversies, so yes, he would definitely be better than Kickl.

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for ÖVP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

Sounds like the ÖVP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FPÖ train then.

And yes, I also agree.

Hopefully, Hofer can bring some change to the FPÖ to clear their name.