Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Diouf]

SPOLU and PiratiSTAN sign memorandum to negotiate new government together



The two opposition blocs have moved quickly, and tonight signed a memorandum to start negotiations about a new government, and not enter into negotiations with other parties.

The text in the memorandum is as follows:

Together the five political entities of the ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09, Czech Pirate Party, Mayors and Independents, grouped in two electoral blocks, reflect the will of the citizens of the Czech Republic, expressed by the fact that these parties and movements won a majority of parliamentary seats in the election.

Aware of our responsibilities, we declare our willingness to form a government of the Czech Republic together.

We are hereby asking the President of the Czech Republic to entrust Petr Fiala with negotiations on the formation of such a government.

We declare and confirm our previous public statements that none of the signatories to this memorandum will enter into negotiations with any other political entity.

We agree that in the coming days our joint negotiations will continue to address specific programme areas and future political arrangements.

[Diouf]

What is the significance of Zeman appointing Babis as PM? If the anti-ANO parties have a majority they can just pass a no confidence vote, right? But the media makes it sound like this would be a constitutional crisis of some sort.

Yes, parliament would just vote no confidence in him right away. The problem is if Zeman never proposes Fiala as PM. If Zeman really plays hardball, it seems like the constitutional options are for the Senate to charge him with high treason in front of the constitutional court or a joint Senate-Chamber motion that the President is incapable of performing his duties (which, considering Zeman's health problems, might not even be far from the truth). In the latter situation, the chair of parliament takes over the function of appointing the PM. This is just from reading the constitution. There might be other options.

In any case, I don't really think Zeman will block Fiala if there is agreement on a new government. As I recall there was some doubts back about him appointing Sobotka, an enemy from his opposite wing in CSSD, but ended up doing it. Maybe Zeman has become slightly more unhinged since then, and Pirate-phobia might be used as an argument by him this time, but I think he will appoint Fiala.

[Diouf]

I calculated the distribution of seats, which explain why ANO ends up with one more seat than SPOLU despite getting fewer votes. Because only four entities ended above the threshold, the number of votes for parties above 5% in each region was relatively low. This means the Imperiali quota in each region was relatively low. Therefore we actually ended up with distributing too many seats via the regional distribution. The parties crossed the Imperial Quotas 202 times, but there are only 200 seats to distribute. In a calculation of the 2017 results with 9 parties above the threshold, the parties only crossed the quota 166 times. Had just one of the parties above the threshold passed it, the quota would have been reached 194 times.

The 202 seat distribution gave the following result: ANO 73, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 38, SPD 21
In three regions, the Imperiali Quota was reached more times than there was seats available: Pardubický kraj, Kraj Vysočina and Olomoucký kraj. Therefore the seat which crossed the quota most marginally in each region was removed. This cost ANO a seat in Pardubický kraj, PiratiSTAN a seat in Kraj Vysočina and SPD a seat in Olomoucký kraj.
So with the regional distribution complete, the seat count was: ANO 72, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.
Then there was only one leveling seat to distribute. Because SPOLU had the highest number of surplus votes after the regional distribution, they received the leveling seat. The remaining seat was in Středočeský kraj.
Therefore we end up at ANO 72, SPOLU 71, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.

[Diouf]

Is the number of seats each region is assigned determined by the same method? I was wondering why Prague has one fewer seat than the last time.

Basically yes. A quota is made of all valid votes/seat number. And then seats are distributed to each region according to how many times it reaches the threshold. If there are seats left they go to the biggest remainder. So Praha lost a seat to Usti region this way. Turnout in Praha remained the highest in the country, but it went up more in many of the other regions, so a seat down compared to 2017 for Praha.

[Diouf]

What are the arguments for and against the Pirates working with STAN?

Ivan Bartos, the Pirate leader, said that the Pirates and STAN are attracting many similar voters. By joining together, they can focus on attracting more voters instead of competing with each other for the same votes. The argument in favour of both coalitions are also that it allows for stronger opposition to ANO. Instead of it being ANO and the many dwarfs, it shows ANO against two stronger coalitions.

Some Pirates are worried that, despite the candidate list reflecting the strength of the two parties, STAN could end up with a much bigger share of their common MPs than deserved as they tend to have local, well-known candidates while the Pirate brand is usually stronger than their young parliamentary candidates in most regions. Also there are some doubts whether STAN is too centrist and non-ideological, which could means the election of MPs whose views are too far away from the Pirate's liberal values.

Just remembered this post, which showed that it was discussed beforehand whether the coalition would end up with mostly STAN MPs.
In order to calculate the real share of Pirate vote, one could try to add all the personal votes for the Pirate candidates vs the STAN candidates. But you can preference up to four candidates, so the result could partly reflect Pirate voters not using preferences fully. There might come a poll or two to try to estimate the exact strength of the Pirate vs Stan.

[Diouf]

If STAN got 34 seats, ODS got 33 and nothing else changed, who would have been the Prime Ministerial proposal?

Still Petr Fiala with SPOLU being larger. STAN is led by the very popular Vit Rakusan, who ended up getting the most preference votes, and will presumably get a significant job in a new government.

STAN and Pirates btw said tonight that they will form separate parliamentary groups. Both parties will be a part of the government negotiations, and said the lower Pirate MP tally did not mean it should just get one, peripheral minister post if a common cabinet is formed.

[Diouf]

The Senate Constitutional Committee will meet on Tuesday 19th, and according to a number of senators, they will discuss whether to activate Article 66 of the Constitution. Zeman is in the Central Military Hospital in Prague in the so-called ARO (Anaesthesiology and Resuscitation Department) - the highest level of intensive care.

[Diouf]

I get the following results when looking at the distributions of personal vote preferences.
Pirates overall getting a little less than a third of the preferential votes. 32,69% vs. 67,31% for STAN. Closest to parity in Prague.
So while STAN deserved the clearly bigger share, the Pirates were really hard done by. With the coalition only winning 1-2 seats in many regions, they almost exclusively won the seats by being the bigger party. STAN probably also benefited from the possibility of giving up to 4 preferences.

Piráti;STAN
Jihočeský. 32,76%; 67,24%
Jihomoravský. 34,71%; 65,29%
Karlovarský. 31,95%; 68,05%
Královéhradecký. 26,70%; 73,30%
Liberecký. 18,61%; 81,39%
Moravskoslezský. 43,41%; 56,59%
Olomoucký. 33,57%; 66,43%
Pardubický. 37,86%; 62,14%
Plzeňský. 32,79%; 67,21%
Středočeský. 19,43%;80,57%
Ústecký. 43,83%; 56,17%
Vysočina. 27,93%; 72,07%
Zlínský. 28,44%; 71,56%
Hl. m. Praha. 48,18%;51,82%

[Diouf]

Babis said he won't be able to form a coalition and will therefore not accept a mandate from the President to form a new government. He fully expects the five anti-Babis parties to form a government and will hand over to Fiala when they are ready. He has changed his mind on quitting politics, and now wants to continue in parliament and says he wants to be a member of the Health committee as there is still a lot of work to do on covid-19.

The five parties have started talks on a new government programme with teams negotiations on the different subjects. They say they expect to have an agreement at the latest on 8th November - the date on which the new parliament meets. And there is a lot of speculation ongoing about how that date for the the first meeting of the new parliament came about. The speaker of the house, ANOs Radek Vondráček, went into the hospital, against the hospital's rules, and together with the head of the office for the president, Vratislav Mynář, entered the president's ward. Vondracek then returned from hospital with a signed declaration with the date of the opening of parliament. However, this has been reported to the police as a possible forgery as Zeman's signature is apparently significantly different from his usual signature, so there are accusations that the president was not in a fit state to sign it or that it was even forged by the president's wife. The date for the opening of parliament was the latest possible day to open parliament, so it made sense for Vondracek to delay the handing over of power as late as possible, and for Mynar and the Zeman family, there is an interest to make it seem like Zeman is fit and capable of performing his duties. However, there are no official reports about Zeman's conditions. The Senate has now officially asked for information on this, so it can make an informed decision about whether to activate article 66.

[Diouf]

The Senate leadership has received a health report from the Central Military Hospital regarding Zeman's condition. Senate President Miloš Vystrčil just announced that the report states that Zeman is currently unable to perform any work duties and that the long-term prognosis of the president's state of health is extremely uncertain so the possibility of returning to work in the coming weeks is considered unlikely. Several senators from the leadership therefore said it is now not a question of if, but when and how to activate Article 66 of the Constitution

[Diouf]

Babis today encouraged the head of office for the president, Vratislav Mynář, to step down following the report about Zeman's health. Mynář invited the speaker Radek Vondráček to the hospital against the rules and despite Zeman not being able to fulfil his duties, and held press conferences lying about the president's health. Babis said Mynář otherwise should be sacked immediatedly once article 66 is activated. Mynář refuses to step down. The PM's has also asked the relevant ministry to cancel the diplomatic passports of those in the Zeman inner circle.
Babis added that there is no hurry to activate article 66 until the new House meets and a new government will have to be appointed. Until then there is little to do for the President anyway.

The Chamber and Senate leadership have decided to ask for a common report on the president's health, which is to be the official basis of a vote to activate article 66. The Senate is expected to vote on November 5. The House is expected to vote shortly after the official opening of Parliament on November 8-10. Then a new Speaker is also appointed so the new majority parties avoid giving the presidential powers to current speaker Vondracek, whom few trust right now.

The police has said they are opening an investigation for "crimes against the republic", but more details haven't come out. So presumably about the role of Mynář in particular, but perhaps also the Zeman family and even Vondracek.

[Diouf]

SPOLU and PiratiStan agreed on a government programme on Tuesday. It will now be voted on by each party internally. If approved, they will then be able to sign the programme on Monday 8 November. I haven't seen a mention of the procedures for approval. The most interesting would be the Pirate approval, where I would have suspected some kind of membership involvement. However, I haven't seen that mentioned everywhere, so I guess their elected representatives can approve it.
It sounds like there will be 18 ministers, divided 11-7 between SPOLU and PiratiStan.

[Diouf]

Today, the five party leaders signed the coalition agreement. All five parties received backing to the plans, but it does seem like Pirates will have final vote among its membership. The vote on final ratification from the Pirates will take place over the weekend. Fiala said he expects the Babis government to resign by the end of the week, and then he can meet with Zeman, whose health has improved somewhat, and be appointed PM.

Fiala said he wants to lead the country out of its current health, economic and value crises. He wants the state to be managed better, to expand the building of housing and roads, and give a positive perspective for the new generation. "The aggressive, reckless, populist policy of constantly shouting at the public, disturbing people and insulting entire social groups must end". TOP09 emphasize a reduction of debt, and a clear Western and NATO-direction of the country. KDU-CSL said a key focus is to support families and bring back a constructive form of communication in the public debate. STAN also emphasized the clear choice towards the Western countries, while Pirates promised a democratic government without the influence of oligarchs.

In the programme, the parties say they will stabilize the public finances by reforming public spending and reducing corruption, but not increase taxes. It includes a big project to digitize public administration by 2025. In terms of transport, a number of high-speed rails projects will be build, but also some highways + raising the speed limit on some of those. It will keep the current indexation of pensions, but reform the system overall. Defence expenditure should rise towards 2% of GDP. The coalition will work towards carbon neutrality in 2050 with limits on coal mining, so a final end to coal mining can be achieved before 2038. The EU's Green Deal is seen as an opportunity to significantly modernize the Czech economy, improve the quality of life and improve the environment by investing in sustainable development, clean and renewable resources and circular management. The future of Czech energy is described as nuclear energy, decentralised renewable sources and increased energy efficiency.

Markéta Pekarová Adamová, leader of TOP09 will become the new Speaker of the House.

[Diouf]

82% of Pirate members voting supported them entering the government, so it's all aboard for them now.
Fiala expected to present his new 5-party government on Wednesday

[Diouf]

CCSD elected Michal Šmarda as the new leader. He beat Jana Maláčová, the acting Minister of Labor and Social Affairs. He received support from 130 of 233 delegates, while she won the support of 62. Finally, the former director of Military Intelligence, Miroslav Krejčík, won 41 votes.

Smarda is currently mayor in Nové Město na Moravě, a winter sport resort town with around 10.000 inhabitants. He was deputy chairman in the party from 2019 to early 2021. He was supposed to become Minister of Culture in 2019, but was rejected by Zeman, probably because Smarda had been critical of the government cooperation with ANO and of Zeman. Smarda therefore also supported Petříček in his failed leadership bid against Jan Hamacek.

The new cabinet is appoint to be appointed, but Zeman doesn't want the proposed Foreign Minister, Pirate Jan Lipavský. Zeman claims he is too lowly educated for that post, that he will damage relations to Israel and Visegrad and due to his proposal that the next Sudeten German days of celebration could be held in Czechia. Fiala and the rest of the government is holding on to the nomination, and wants the Constitutional Court to make a final judgment on how the competence between President and Prime Minister is distributed in this regard. When Zeman himself was PM, he had the same interpretation as Fiala now, that the President must accept the PM's proposals.

[Diouf]

Zeman didn't want the big Constitutional fight after all so has withdrawn his reservations about appointing Lipavský. The new government will be appointed tomorrow, and then have the official vote of confidence in mid-January.

In January, the Pirates will have their national forum where they elect their leader. Ivan Bartos is running again, but senator Lukáš Wagenknecht has also announced his candidacy.

[Diouf]

In January, the Pirates will have their national forum where they elect their leader. Ivan Bartos is running again, but senator Lukáš Wagenknecht has also announced his candidacy.

Is Bartos likely to get re-elected? I'd imagine that, even if they've made it into government, Pirates can't be entirely happy with how the election went for them.

From what I can see, Wagenknecht was one of the few prominent voices sceptical of joining the government. So considering that 82% of the Pirates voted in favour of joining the government, it seems like there is little chance of Bartos losing.

And they certainly aren't happy with the way the election ended in terms of seat + the poor campaign. The seat part was known as a potential problem that everybody was aware of, but the degree to which it would affect them was underestimated. The alliance was made considering the previous electoral system, where the bigger entities had a seat advantage. It would probably have rocked the boat too much to cancel the alliance when the new electoral system was agreed after the Court struck down the old one. But if they are somewhat clear of the 5%-threshold, it seems certain that they will run on their own next time since there is not normally a seat bonus for the bigger entities in the new system.

Bartos is more to blame for the campaign, where he and the party leadership seemed unprepared in relation to the attacks from ANO and SPD, particularly on stuff like migration. In public, the Pirates seem to agree that it was mainly the fault of those evil populists + the media, but behind closed doors they could probably have a tougher analysis of Bartos' performance in the campaign.