Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Diouf]

Filip and KSCM's 4 deputy leaders have decided to make their positions available before a meeting in the party's executive committee this Friday. The decisions made in the executive committee can then be amended in the party's central committee, which meet 14 November, two weeks before the party congress. However, Filip did not rule out standing for leader again, but said much would depend on the reaction of the party. Filip has been leader since 2005.

https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/domaci/3200514-filip-i-mistopredsedove-kscm-daji-v-patek-k-dispozici-sve-funkce

@ Samof94

I haven't really seen much effect of the Covid rates politically. The polling figures have been quite stable throughout this period.

[Diouf]

How does having Covid rates that look like Spain affect them politically?

Opposition to ANO got mobilised in regional elections, older voters stayed at home (= bad result for KSCM and CSSD). According to some analysis, only 40 % of ANO voters from previous parliamentary elections participated in 2020 regional elections (compare to 80 % of ODS voters). I can't share the images, but if you find Denik N newspaper tomorrow frontpage, you can see more numbers from this analysis. ANO party was expecting a much better result.

The charts can be seen here with voter movements from the 2016 regional elections, 2017 parliamentary elections, 2018 presidential election and 2019 European elections.

https://gitlab.com/michalskop/volby-2020/-/blob/master/README.md?fbclid=IwAR0QIVCg5sjdRkyEYwEK4VvjqP4PY-kVfIiYkDZSlKUBCsFU5J7fUfuuKAU

[Diouf]

The 2nd round of the senate elections has finished today, and the turnout is a whopping 16.67% with more than 90% counted. As expected a lot of wins from STAN, and a lot of centre-rightish coalitions or local alliances. ANO looks like it could win a seat in Karviná in a straight battle with CSSD. An "exciting" race which has had a turnout of 7.88% with 90% counted. So the vote lead for the ANO candidate currently is 3 161 to 3 088...

[Diouf]

Alliances building ahead of 2021 election



ODS, KDU-CSL and TOP09 have announced a deal to run as a coalition in the general election in 2021. The three center-right parties also tried to convince STAN to join the agreement, but STAN preferred negotiating a deal with the Pirates. However, it seems like the Pirate membership is not fully convinced of the advantages of a STAN deal. An indicative online poll on the Pirate forum indicated 51% against and 43% for. The final decision is expected in a vote 13-16 November.

Particularly for the smaller parties, it can make sense to gang up with a bigger party. For single parties, the threshold is 5%, two-party alliances have to get 10% and the three-party alliance 15%. With the current ODS and Pirate strength, the alliances should fairly easily cross these threshold.

[Diouf]

What are the arguments for and against the Pirates working with STAN?

Ivan Bartos, the Pirate leader, said that the Pirates and STAN are attracting many similar voters. By joining together, they can focus on attracting more voters instead of competing with each other for the same votes. The argument in favour of both coalitions are also that it allows for stronger opposition to ANO. Instead of it being ANO and the many dwarfs, it shows ANO against two stronger coalitions.

Some Pirates are worried that, despite the candidate list reflecting the strength of the two parties, STAN could end up with a much bigger share of their common MPs than deserved as they tend to have local, well-known candidates while the Pirate brand is usually stronger than their young parliamentary candidates in most regions. Also there are some doubts whether STAN is too centrist and non-ideological, which could means the election of MPs whose views are too far away from the Pirate's liberal values.

[Diouf]

Could you clarify what you mean and explain more relating to the last paragraph?

Maybe the wording was unclear, but some have doubts about whether some parts of STAN lean towards the right too much. Party leader Ivan Bartos lays out the conclusions of the party's analysis of a cooperation on their forum.

Bartos argues that there is largely agrement between the parties on 70% of issues. This figure is reached by comparing the two parties' positions on 103 issues. In the full analysis, the issues of agreement listed are: Foreign policy and the relationship with the EU, reduction of labor taxation, digitization of the state, health care, transparency, the importance of culture and its financing, rural development, financing of social services and pensions, state cybersecurity, the value of education and fair salaries for teachers, migration, justice, agriculture and environmental protection and pandemic management.
The analysis then mentions some issues where Pirates are progressive, but STAN are more conservative: Copyright law, regulation of addictive behavior, same-sex marriage, support for innovation in education, the defence budget and different sector taxes (higher on e.g. financial sector). Also there are of course some pecularities in STAN in terms of a significant focus on localism, which can make it more difficult to carry through uniform, national changes.

The link to Bartos post is below. There you can also find the full analysis

https://forum.pirati.cz/viewtopic.php?p=721773&fbclid=IwAR1aQY2TXvmflVdSifYnK4q60QORXn3iKJg7biqLOJoilcwz1jbK_lxphOg#p721773

[Diouf]

Diouf, I know that I'm not the one who asked for it, but thanks for the post above and the clarification/explanation! Obviously I'm very ill informed, but it does seem like the issues the two parties disagree on--with the exception perhaps of defense budget--are enormously outweighed by the issues they agree on, both in number and importance. Do you think they'll really be enough to hinder any cooperation between the two parties? 

Well for many pirates, I think copyright law is a very central theme , but yes most of the issues of disagreement are not major economic issues. I think most of the party leadership is for cooperation, and their analysis suggests that most of their voters are as well, but it's the members who will decide and that is where there is doubt. And yes that might be as much about identity as how much economic difference there is between the party programs. So there are fears about the party losing its identity. One of those in favour of cooperation writes about how working with STAN locally "disturbed the prejudices about Pirates as junkies and neo-marxists". But I think a large chunk of the members would like them to keep a distinct identity, and not be like other parties. However, you could argue that if they were form a coalition after an election, they would join these parties in close cooperation anyway.

[Diouf]

On Tuesday, the Pirate Party's members gave the final approval to the coalition deal with STAN. In the end, the vote was very clear with 79% of voting members in favour. STAN's national committee approved the deal last week. The parties' common policies will include a bigger tax credit to improve the take-home pay for lower-paid workers, same-sex marriage, a big public digitalization reform, better health care, make sure Czechia reaches its Paris Treaty climate treaties by f.ex. closing coal-fired plants earlier, legalized cannabis, preparations for the adoption of the euro and efforts to boost entrepreneurship.
A Pirate will be on top of the list in 10 regions, while STAN will lead the alliance in the remaining 4. STAN leader Vit Rakusan will lead the alliance in Středočeský kraj, the most populous region, which covers the Central Bohemian region surrounding Prague. Ivan Bartos, the Pirate leader, will be top of the list in Ústí nad Labem.

Alliances are really in fashion in Czechia this year, and a third one might be on its way. The CSSD is trying to make an agreement with the Green Party. The environmentalists only achieved 1.46% in 2017 and have rarely polled over 2% since. Therefore, an alliance would probably be in danger of missing the 10% threshold, so instead it will probably be Green candidates running on the Social Democrat list if an agreement is reached. The parties had succesful cooperation in two regions in the regional election.

Update on outcomes of the regional elections. STAN and ODS ended with 4 regional governors each, ANO ended up with only 3 governors while CSSD and KDU-CSL has one each. And we then of course have a Pirate Mayor of Prague, but that region of course held elections back in 2018 alongside the other local elections.

[Diouf]

what is spo position on coaltiions? looking at polls they could very well be king makers

Do you mean SPD? I doubt they will enter any coalitions with significant parties, but perhaps some candidates from some of the tiny right-wing parties could get a spot on their candidate list, or more likely, just join the party. SPD seems quite certain of getting into parliament at the moment (polling 7.5-10.5%), so they don't need any coalition, and I can't really see anyone who would join them. Maybe Klaus Jr. and Trikolora could become desperate if it doesn't look like they will get over the threshold, but I doubt it, especially as they have exchanged a few tough words in the battle for the right-wing voters.

I don't know if king makers is the right term as there is no doubt which king the party prefers. They will support Babis, and wants the most Eurosceptic and immigration-critical version of a Babis-government. So I think their best case is a ANO government supported by SPD/Communists or SPD/Trikolora. However, it doesn't look likely at the moment, that such a combination will be enough for a majority. And it's still an open question whether ANO's liberal wing, who made the option impossible in 2017, is marginalized enough for that to happen. I also think Babis would prefer several other options, but if the Pirate/Stan coalition and the centre-right alliance continues to shun him, then it could end up as an option. A majority could be more likely with the Social Democrats added, but I think a deal with SPD would be a bridge to far for many in that party as well. The Social Democrats actually looks more like a kingmaker now (if they get in) as I think they could be a part of different majority options.

[Diouf]

The Green - Social Democrat negotiations about a potential cooperation is currently visible in the headlines. The Green Party has stated its willingness to enter into negotiations, but it states as a condition that such a cooperation must work to end "the oligarchic afflictance of political and economic power and authoritarian style of governance" which means a promise to not work with ANO, KSCM and SPD. The Social Democrat answer so far is probably not fully convincing to them as Jan Hamacek said that the party will commit to not working with ANO if ANO wants them to cooperate in a majority with ODS. Apparently a potential ANO-ODS cooperation is the danger the CSSD is now warning against after a significant tax cut was voted through just before Christmas with the votes of ANO, ODS, SPD + independents (incl. Trikolora ofc). ODS leader Petr Fiala has completely rejected this idea, and called it as realistic as a alien attack or a riot by domestic cats; he says the real threat is the continuation of Babis' populist-Bolshevik coalition. A coalition which CSSD has taken part in, and broken all promises to voters about, he said.

So it seems like CSSD is a bit torn. It would really like the support of a few extra % of voters to ensure it will pass the 5% threshold, but it's also wary to give up its potential decisive kingmaker role. The CSSD has instead tried to lure the Greens with a climate promise. The government's coal commission has just published its ideas, which includes an end to coal use in 2038. CSSD says that in a coalition it would support abolishing the use of coal by 2033. It will be interesting to see whether the two parties can find each other in a deal.

[Diouf]

https://twitter.com/PetraGuasti/status/1356925335632281600

Yes, the Court abolished the cumulation rule, which meant a coalition of two parties would need 10% instead of 5% and so on. So this could make coalitions more common, especially with minor parties, so for example Social Democrats and Greens could make a coalition instead of running Green candidates on the CSSD list. Also the court ruled that the combination of D'Hondt and some small electoral regions (the smallest Karlovy Vary has 5 seats) means smaller parties are discriminated against as they need many more votes per seat nationwide. This discrimination is part of why we have seen the opposition unite into coalitions as they would then get closer to ANO in size, and thereby reduce ANO's D'Hondt advantage.

Babis is not very happy. He said that the Constitutional Court is actively trying to influence the political situation, and that it damages the citizen' confidence in politics. He accuses the Court's President, Pavel Rychetsky, for bias against Babis and states that Rychetsky is likely to be STANs candidate for president in 2023. Babis said that a more proportional system will fragment parliament further, and throw the country into political chaos with a new government each year as in Italy.

Minister of Interior, and CSSD leader, Jan Hamacek has called the parties for a meeting on Tuesday. As I understand it, the cumulation threshold is automatically gone, so the parties "only" need to find a solution to the other problem. Hamacek has proposed 4 ideas:
1. That the country will function as one giant constituency.
2. Merging some of the 14 regional constituencies into larger ones.
3. To replace the D'Hondt method with another formula
4. To keep the 14 regional constituencies, but allocate seats differently. First a national overall allocation, and then ditributing them to parties per region.

I think the latter clearly sounds like the best idea. In that way you can keep the same constituencies, which are equal to the regions, and therefore keep a regional connection of the representatives. If they need inspiration, they could look at the Danish system. Here 75% of the seats are distributed with D'Hondt in each constituency. The the parties' nationwide share of seats are calculated with the largest remainder method. The last 25% of seats are then distributed to the parties in the regions, so that the parties reach their deserved national seat share.

[Diouf]

At the same time, KSCM is making noises about removing their support for Babis' government, although it's hard to gather how serious the threats are. The latest announcement is that the communist executive committee will meet on Friday to decide whether to remove their support. They have a number of complaints. They said they only agreed to extend the covid state of emergency until 14 February because it was promised that children would return to school on 1 February and ski resorts could open from 29 January. This hasn't happened, and instead restrictions have been tightened again. Another complaint is that the government has cheated in in terms of agreed reductions in the military budget. In last year's budget, the communists won a concession of a 10 billion CZK reduction. However, with a technical measure, the government has moved 5 billion back to the military from other programs. Finally, they say that the government needs to speed up to fulfill the last of the promises made to KSCM when the government was formed, the enactment of 5 weeks of leave for all employees and merging the health insurance providers.

With the election planned in October and the way the parliamentary seats are distributed, I kind of a doubt a new government would be formed before election anyway. So removing tolerance of the government would mostly be a symbolic gesture. I'm not sure how good of a look it is to remove confidence in the government based on covid restrictions. I haven't seen specific polling, but in most countries there still seem to be clear majorities in favour of draconian covid restrictions, especially among the older voters, who make up KSCM's base. And it's not like their polling figures are great to begin with.

[Diouf]

The communists ended up not making a decision on the tolerance agreement, and instead decided to continue negotiations with the government. It also restated its opposition to extend the state of emergency.

[Diouf]

What’s are the pirates key to government?

Generally, I would expect their biggest chance to be a combined majority for Pirate/Stan + the Spolu alliance. If CSSD ends up with the decisive seats, there could still be a decent chance of a not-Babis coalition. If results are more favourable for ANO, but not to the extend where the governing majority can/want to continue, then ANO will probably again try to lure parties to join them, including the Pirates. But so far the idea of Babis in charge have been enough for both the Pirates and the other opposition parties to decline.

[Diouf]

Trikolora has formed an electoral coalition with two other small right-wing parties, Svobodni and Soukromníci. Svobodni had their highlight in 2014, when party leader Petr Mach was elected to the European Parliament when the party won 5.24%. Since then the party's fortunes have declined significantly; receiving only 1.56% in the 2017 national election and 0.65% in the 2019 European elections. Soukromníci is mostly associated with the gambling magnate Ivo Valenta, who was elected senator for the party in 2014, but lost re-election in 2020. In 2017, their candidates ran on the ODS list without getting elected. Klaus Jr. said he was happy to unite three parties who believe in democracy, capitalism and the nation state as an alternative to the current left-wing and anti-nationalist direction of Czech politics. The alliance will likely help Trikolora with a couple of decimal points. In most recent polls, they have been between 2.5 - 3.5 %, so they need a boost if they are to make it up over the 5% threshold.

CSSD and the Greens are in negotiations about an alliance. They expect to reach a deal towards the end of March, so that it can be voted on at the CSSD congress in April and afterwards in the Green Party Council.

[Diouf]

Klaus Jr. has announced that he is retiring as Trikolora leader, and won't be running at the general election. He said the decision was made for mainly personal reasons, saying he did not have the energy to continue in politics. However, his lack of energy could also have been affected by Trikolora being stuck well below the 5% threshold in most polling. Just a few days before, daddy Klaus publicly stated his hope for a Trikolora-SPD alliance. Predictably, Okamura did not see this as a very good idea, and now it seems likely that Trikolora will lose most of the little support it has, which will probably mainly go to Okamura. And after being stuck in the middle-high single digits for most of the term, SPD is now regularly polling at 10% or above, so a better result than the 10.6% in 2017 could be on the cards.

There seems to be agreement on a new electoral system after the Constitutional Court's verdict. I haven't seen the final compromise text yet, but from what i can see it will be in this way:
The threshold will stay at 5% for single parties, 8% for a 2-party coalition and 11% for a coalition with more than two parties. So there will still be higher threshold for coalitions, but lower than the 10% and 15% threshold struck down by the court.
In terms of the distribution of the seats, it will now be a two-tier process with compensatory seats instead of the previous system, where seats were only distributed on the regional level. In the new system, the Imperiali quota (votes for parties above threshold/number of seats + 2) will be calculated for each region. Then parties will get seats according to how many times, they pass the quota. So with 90.000 votes, and a 20.000 quota, it would be 4 seats. After this first distribution, there will be some seats undistributed (around 30 of 200 expected). Nationally, the distribution of these seats will be calculated based on a nationwide quota (surplus votes from the regional distribution for all parties above threshold/number of seats left + 1). If the seat distribution via quota does not match the exact number of seats to give, then the parties closest to an extra seat via quota will get the seat (or the other way around if too many seats are distributed). There was then quite some debate about how these compensatory seats should be distributed on the regional level. Committee leader Benda from ODS thought it a super idea to allow the parties themselves to decide in which regions they wanted their compensatory seats, but luckily a sane majority in parliament decided that these seats are distributed automatically, taking into account a party's votes and seats in each region + the number of seats left in each region.
It is still semi-closed lists. You can break the list from a lower position if you get at least 5% of the party's votes.
To me it seems like a really great outcome. The two-tier process and the quota distribution should give a more fair distribution of seats on the national level, like the court mandated. I would prefer completely open party lists, but you can't get the perfect system.

Polling is starting to show Pirati/Stan equal to or even ahead of ANO, and an anti-Babis majority is looking quite likely.

[Diouf]

I tried to do a calculation of the new system with the 2017 results.
I get the following numbers:

ANO 69 (-9)
ODS 24 (-1)
Pirati 24 (+2)
SPD 23 (+1)
KSCM 16 (+1)
CSSD 15 (=)
KDU-CSL 11 (+1)
TOP09 9 (+2)
STAN 9 (+3)

As expected, smaller parties benefit while bigger parties lose. The new system will also advantage those parties who will have been just below the old regional seat threshold in many places; often because many votes have been received in one or two regions. The governing majority would just lose its majority with this system (100 seats out of 200).

[Diouf]

Jan Hamacek re-elected as CSSD leader with the votes of 140 of the 270 delegates. His biggest rival Tomáš Petříček won support from 95 delegates, while ex-minister Katarina Valachova won 23 delegates with her late candidature. The divisions in the values of the Hamacek and Petricek-wings of the party was laid bare in the speeches, as Hamacek accused Petricek of attracting plenty of support on Twitter and in the Respekt (left-liberal news magazine) newsroom, but all that support is from people who will never vote CSSD. Under Petricek, the party would turn into an orange TOP09 without much popular support, he stated. Both Petricek and Valachova indicated that they would leave the Babis government, and attacked Hamacek for the poor election results in 2019 and 2020. Petricek said the party had to take a stand against Babis, and cannot be a vague party for everyone, and would be overshadowed by ANO in that role.
It sounds like Petricek could already be on the way out as Foreign Minister, something Zeman in particular will enjoy. His replacement is likely Lubomír Zaorálek, who held the position from 2013-2017, and is currently Minister of Culture.

Hamacek's victory probably makes a deal with the Greens less of a match, as they seem to continue to demand a promise to not cooperate with ANO after an election. And are making a lot of noise about ditching the Danube-Oder-Elbe Canal Project. With the new electoral law and a 8% threshold for two-party coalitions, it seems clear that any cooperation would have to be simply Green candidates running on the CSSD list. Both parties are electorally challenged, which explains the effort put into the negotiations, but I think the Greens are to make a climbdown if it's to happen. Hamacek will not give many concessions to the Green Twitter-users and Respekt-readers.

[Diouf]

I'm guessing this is a stupid question, but did any of the candidates set out even the vaguest policy direction?

I think the party as a whole have quite a lot of concrete economic proposals. The final election programme will be adopted in these days, but it sound like it will include at least:
- Bank tax
- Tax on digital firms
- A shorter working week
- Five weeks of holiday for all employees
- Autotomatic indexation of minimum wage
- Heavy investments in incresing health services in rural areas
- Nationalise the water management
- Enforce equal salary and pensions for women

I think they are both in favour of most of this, and then the difference is in emphasis and other areas. Petricek is closer to the Greens on energy, while Hamacek focuses on nuclear and a slower phase-out of fossil fuels. Petricek wants more EU-integration, Hamacek is more reluctant. Petricek is more anti-Babis, while Hamacek and his right-hand Onderka focuses criticism on corporations and rich ("Banks and large corporations share their astronomical profits fairly. Not only the young and successful live in the Czech Republic. Social democracy must also think of others. Our core voters are employees".)

[Diouf]

The KSCM have dropped their support for Babis. I assume this is not unconnected to their current abysmal polling.

They are in a somewhat similar situation to CSSD in that regard, but to me it seems strange that KSCM should be more willing to stop cooperation. While they are of course further from ANO on economic questions, KSCM does not have much of an urban liberal-leaning anti-Babis wing like CSSD. And I'm still wondering whether the old communist electorate really is opposed to tough state covid restrictions, which the party have criticized.

The wildly different Czech polls also makes it hard to gauge exactly how bad things are. Median usually has them between 7-8%, while the new Data Collect pollster has them on 2.7%. The average of the March polling from the six different pollsters were 5.1%, so just above the threshold.

The Communists have had these talks about confidence in the government since February, where they have discussed how much of the governing agreement has been kept. I believe their offical judgement is that around 60% of it has been kept. Among the non-kept promises, they were quite angry about the government "cheating" them in terms of military expenses, where a cut had been agreed in the budget, but the government then funnelled funds to the military department from another department. KSCM pushed the government to publish a proposal for the establishment of a state-owned development bank, which can provide loans to companies and local governments, but there was no deadlines in the proposal to ensure its adoptation within the end of the term. And ANO today voted against a Communist proposal on ensuring five weeks of holiday for all employees, which the KCSM leadership describe as the straw breaking the camel's bag.

KCSM has said they will support a no-confidence motion put forward by other parties, but the question then is what SPD does. Anyways, the election seems unlikely to be moved from the date on 8-9 October. Parliament cannot be dissolved during the last three months of its term. And the new electoral law still needs to go through the senate and be signed by the President. Media assume the new law can be in force in early July.

[Diouf]

SPD says they will vote for the no-confidence motion, so there will be a majority for no confidence. Babis has said he is not calling a confidence motion, but the centre-right coalition has said they will do so if Babis does not do it himself before Friday. However, there is not agrement what to happen after that fact. Pirati/STAN says they want early elections, while the previous message from the centre-right alliance was that it was impossible before the new electoral law is adopted, but in the end it sounds like a technical question. I assume they both want an early election with the new electoral law, if possible. The bigger problem is that the Communists and SPD do not want early election, and at least SPD has said they would then want a Zeman-chosen temporary expert government. The argument that power is left to Zeman is an often-heard argument about the no-confidence motion.

Filip will lead the Communists at the election. A majority at the party's Central Committee voted to remove him, but such a vote needs a 2/3 majority which it lacked. Instead Filip has indicated he will resign at the party congress after the election.

[Diouf]

A big hit for TOP09 as their most prominent MP Dominik Feri resigns from parliament and withdraws his candidature for the election after accusations of sexually predatory behaviour. Deníku N has described several incidents of this behaviour from 2015 - 2020. Feri says: "I don't want false and manipulative articles in the media to harm my immediate surroundings or my colleagues. I'll defend myself against them in the courts. It was an extraordinary honor to serve and be your MP". Feri admits inappropriate behaviour, but rejects that he physically forced himself on women: "I am sorry for all these failures and deeply and sincerely apologize for them. Although I have learned from mistakes, nothing can be dismissed just because I was simply young and now I live differently. I've come a long way trying to overcome my shortcomings. I believe I'm headed in the right direction."

https://twitter.com/CT24zive/status/1397248726171795472

[Diouf]

Babis just survived a vote of confidence as the Communists decided to abstain. Filip had previously said that the party would support the motion of no-confidence, but he has clearly lost control of the party, who forced him into retreat. It ended with a compromise of abstaining. TOP09, ODS, KDU-CSL, Pirates, STAN, Trikolora and SPD all supported the motion, while ANO and CSSD of course opposed it. So 89 MPs voted for the motion and 82 against but an absolute majority of 101 members in favour is needed for a no confidence motion to pass.

In his speech, Filip criticized the government for being too aggressive against Russia, and for not doing the promised health insurance merger. However, he argued for abstaining due to his fear of opposition parties taking over, fearing another wave of privatizations as seen by the governments of Topolanek and Necas. Babis himself seem to have defined the Pirates as his main opponent. In his speech, he declared himself the guarantee against a "multicultural, fanatical Pirate state", and that he did not want green extremists from the European Parliament running the country from abroad.

[Diouf]

So would the Pirates be considered as on the "right" ? Some articles i've read implied this, but Babis is apparently trying to portray them as similar to the Greens of other countries. Intresting that the communists have supported Babis up till now, and still would be but for the expulsion of the Russian diplomats. apparently.

If current polls hold steady, whats the most likely new government? Would Spolo support a Pirate government?

No, I don't think the Pirates are generally considered on the right. When Filip warns against a new wave of privatization, it is mainly against former government parties like ODS and TOP09. The biggest criticism of Pirates are mainly on the value questions, where the parties with more conservative values attack them for being too far left on climate, immigration, law and order, drugs policy etc. The Pirates are not like a standard greenleft party; they seem more like a semi-technocratic soft left party on economy. So investments in education, digitization and health care and green taxes etc., but also in favour of lowering labour taxes and not wanting to widely expand the public sector. So CSSD and KSCM can criticize them for not having enough focus on the working class. I'm guessing this angle could be quite relevant later, especially if/when a new government is formed, because Pirates would ally with parties who are to their right on economy.

Government formation will not be simple. The biggest dividing line is and has been for or against Babis, and I expect that to continue after the election. So if, as looks likely, Pirati+Stan + Spolu have a majority after the election, I'm sure that they will find a majority together in some way. However, I think it's a complicating factor that Pirati+Stan looks most likely to be the biggest player. I think ODS are very hungry to get back into government and preferably as the leading party, so if Spolu were to become the biggest player, an obvious solution could be that they simply form the government and Pirati + Stan as parliamentary support. However, with the fortunes reversed and Pirati+STAN as the bigger player, it does not seem as easy. I'm not sure Spolu would act like support parties to a Bartos government. Would there then be a government of some, but not all of the parties from each bloc, and lead by who? And in all scenarioes, there are real political differences. Pirates and TOP09 and STAN towards a social liberal end, while ODS and KDU-CSL are more conservative. And on economy, the two big players Pirates and ODS are quite a bit apart.

Government formation of course becomes very complicated if CSSD ends up with decisive seats between Pirati+STAN+Spolu and ANO+SPD+KSCM. I still think such a scenario would end up with an Anti-Babis majority as CSSD would not be in a majority with SPD, but it would be an extremely complicated formation process.

[Diouf]

Why are ODS and KDU-CSL so anti-Babis?
I always thought Babis was a fairly standard national liberal and not all that far from Venstre or VVD.  Why can't he work with the right?

I think a lot of it is about Babis personally. There are the stories and court cases about which exact role he played in Communist Czechoslovakia, especially in relation to the State Security Police. The investigations regarding EU subsidies fraud for some of his companies, leading to the police recommmending an indictment. And in general, the combination of his role as one of the richest men in Czechia and owner of media outlets alongside his role as PM. So in many of the negotiations, most of the opposition parties have made unrealistic demands like Babis himself not being PM, which was obviously not going to happen.

For ODS, there might also be strategic considerations about not being junior partner to a bigger centre-right party as they see that position as their natural one. For KDU-CSL, they were of course in coalition with him in the Sobotka government, and could have been a natural coalition fodder party if a mainstream centre-right coalition had been formed.

But yes, I agree that politically he is a quite standard national liberal. He has probably moved in a more national and conservative direction over the years. Some of that is probably due to sensing that's where he could appeal to the average Czech, but is probably also due to the mainstream right shunning him, so he has had to work with KSCM and sometimes SPD as well.