Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I thought Freundenthal was term-limited.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I assume you mean you put MA at Likely D.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lunar, Kendrick Meek is a loser. He would be a loser if Charlie Crist had never run for Senate, or if Charlie Crist had never stepped foot in/been born in Florida. Please do not blame Kendrick Meek's loserdom on Charlie Crist. The only thing Kendrick Meek may be successful at is handing the Florida Senate race to the tea baggers.

We actually agree here.

Fun fact: Kendrick Meek has never faced a general election opponent. Ever. Unless you count a declared write-in candidate in 2006 who got less than 1%. And he was only challenged in the primary by a complete joke in 2006. He basically inherited the seat from his mother and hasn't had to lift a finger to hold it since. The guy is not a campaigning genius.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If MN-08 is lost, the Democrats have indeed lost every seat in Iowa. And every seat in the Upper Midwest except the Twin Cities, Madison and Milwaukee-based ones. Oberstar has actually never even lost a single county since he was first elected to that seat. He is not going to go down while Emmer is destroyed in the same seat (Dayton's running mate is also from there.)

MN-01 is more winnable, but the GOP candidate has the same problem as Emmer, he's a backbencher extremist with nothing notable for him other than being so extreme. To win he'd have to about 5 out of 6 of these: win typical GOP margins in the conservative western half, hold Walz to under 60% in Greater Mankato which is a rock solid stronghold for Walz, win the German Catholic belt by double digits, hold Walz to under 60% in the "meth and strippers" belt along the Iowa border, win Olmsted county by at least 5 points and win by enough in the rest of the counties to at least cancel out Winona. Now that may not be impossible, but I don't see how he's the best candidate to do it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looking at all of these seats being lost, Democrats might as well have just stayed home in 2006 and 2008 rather than try to win these seats.  Its like seeing all of your hard work over the years smashed to pieces. 

And the Republicans will lose tons of them in 2012. By your logic no party should even try to win elections.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

- MN is in Lean D.  Personally, I think this one might be safe, but the polling is not convincing on this front, so I err on the cautious side.

You're actually a bit more optimistic than I am then.

I think I see the point though, the polling seems to imply that Emmer's ceiling is in the high 30s, and with that you just can't win even with a third party pulling about 10-15%.