The 150th Edition of College Football - Discussion and Pick 'Em Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Auburn looks incredible tonight.  SEC homer me is trying to argue that the playoff should be only SEC teams this year.

I'm OK with that.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Amazing catch by the UNC receiver just short of the goal line.

Followed up by a TD and stupid two point convert call.

I like the two-point call there.  Let's say the PAT conversion rate is about 95% and the 2-point conversion rate is X.  Let's assume that if you go to OT, you have a 50% of winning (although against a much higher rated team, it could be assumed to be even less).

If you kick, you have a 95% x 50% = 47.5% chance of winning.  With a two-point conversion, you have an X chance of winning.  (This ignores the fact that in cases like this the other team has some time left to win, but that occurs in either case so I don't think it affects the overall calculation).

So if you think your chance of converting the 2-pointer (X) is greater than 47.5%, you should go for it.  I can't find stats for college football, but in the NFL the 2-point success rate is about 60%.

I was less meaning the decision to go for two than the play call they drew up was terrible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amazing catch by the UNC receiver just short of the goal line.

Followed up by a TD and stupid two point convert call.

I like the two-point call there.  Let's say the PAT conversion rate is about 95% and the 2-point conversion rate is X.  Let's assume that if you go to OT, you have a 50% of winning (although against a much higher rated team, it could be assumed to be even less).

If you kick, you have a 95% x 50% = 47.5% chance of winning.  With a two-point conversion, you have an X chance of winning.  (This ignores the fact that in cases like this the other team has some time left to win, but that occurs in either case so I don't think it affects the overall calculation).

So if you think your chance of converting the 2-pointer (X) is greater than 47.5%, you should go for it.  I can't find stats for college football, but in the NFL the 2-point success rate is about 60%.

I was less meaning the decision to go for two than the play call they drew up was terrible.

Oh, in that case I agree with you.

[Donerail]

Sjoyce is 15 out of 16 so far today; he's only missed Montana over UC Davis.

dfw did help me out with a pretty lopsided slate this week

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Sjoyce is 15 out of 16 so far today; he's only missed Montana over UC Davis.

dfw did help me out with a pretty lopsided slate this week

I was concerned I should've put Maryland-Penn State and Duke-Virginia Tech on instead of like Alabama-Ole Miss and Clemson-UNC but ironically I think the latter two were both more competitive lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

WEEK 5 RESULTS


Sjoyce won again with an amazing 22 (he only missed Stanford and the two FCS games) and extended his overall lead.


THIS WEEK:

sjoyce 22

Dereich 21

GeorgiaModerate 20

1184AZ 19
peenie 19
Sprouts 19

ExtremeRepublican 18
Green Line 18
Illiniwek 18
RINO Tom 18

Jgibson 16

dfw 15

Sunrise 11


As a group we averaged 18 right, the most since week 0/1.  There were eight unanimous picks (Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas A&M, Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, and Auburn) and we got them all right.  There were two games with a single dissenter: Kansas-TCU and Virginia-Notre Dame.  The dissenter was wrong in both.


OVERALL STANDINGS:

sjoyce 91

GeorgiaModerate 84

Dereich 83
RINO Tom 83

ExtremeRepublican 82

Sprouts 81

Green Line 79

JGibson 77

1184AZ 76
peenie_weenie 76

Illiniwek 75

dfw 71
SunriseAroundTheWorld 71

People who haven't played every week:

Ninja0428 49
YE 28
Coastal Elitist 17
tmthforu94 17
Gorguf 13

[Terry the Fat Shark]

These pac12 games are killing me, I should just start picking the opposite of what I expect to happen on those, same with fcs....

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Alabama has narrowly overtaken Clemson for #1 in the Coaches poll, but has 1 less first place vote than Clemson

First place votes:
Clemson - 30
Alabama - 29
Ohio State (who are ranked 5th lol) - 4
Georgia - 1

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/2019/09/chris-ash-fired-as-rutgers-football-coach-nunzio-campanile-will-take-over.html

Rutgers fires Chris Ash

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mike Leach rips 'fat, dumb' Washington State players after loss

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Alabama moves to #1 in the AP poll, too. Clemson at #2, Ohio State jumps over LSU to #4.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Week 6 FBS/FCS matchups:

Friday, October 4th

#18 UCF @ Cincinnati 8 PM EDT ESPN

New Mexico @ San Jose State 10 PM EDT CBSSN

Saturday, October 5th

#14 Iowa @ #19 Michigan Noon EDT FOX

Tulane @ Army Noon EDT CBSSN

Maryland @ Rutgers Noon EDT BTN

TCU @ Iowa State Noon EDT ESPN2

South Florida @ UConn Noon EDT CBSSN

Boston College @ Louisville 12:30 PM EDT ACCNX

Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan 3 PM EDT ESPN+

#7 Auburn @ #10 Florida 3:30 PM EDT CBS

Baylor @ Kansas State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN2

Western Michigan @ Toledo 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Ball State @ Northern Illinois 3:30 PM EDT ESPN3

Arkansas State @ Georgia State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Air Force @ Navy 3:30 PM EDT CBSSN

Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL) 3:30 PM EDT ESPN

Northwestern @ Nebraska 4 PM EDT FOX

Arizona @ Colorado 4:30 PM EDT PAC12N

#25 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State 7:30 PM EDT ABC

Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss 7:30 PM EDT SECN

California @ #13 Oregon 8 PM EDT FOX

Pittsburgh @ Duke 8 PM EDT ACCN

Oregon State @ UCLA 9 PM EDT PAC12N

FCS:

Furman @ Samford 3 PM EDT

Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa 5 PM EDT

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Alabama moves to #1 in the AP poll, too. Clemson at #2, Ohio State jumps over LSU to #4.

This is the 12th straight year that Alabama has been ranked #1 at some point.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

btw 3 people ranked Auburn # 1 in the AP poll

[100% pro-life no matter what]

btw 3 people ranked Auburn # 1 in the AP poll

One of which had an all-SEC top four

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Friday, October 4th

#18 UCF

New Mexico

Saturday, October 5th

#14 Iowa

Army

Maryland

TCU

South Florida

Boston College

Eastern Michigan

#7 Auburn

Kansas State

Western Michigan

Northern Illinois

Arkansas State

Air Force

Miami (FL)

Nebraska

Colorado

#4 Ohio State

Vanderbilt

#13 Oregon

Duke

Oregon State

FCS:

Furman

Northern Iowa

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe this is the first week that sjoyce wasn't the first to post picks.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Week 6 FBS/FCS matchups:

Friday, October 4th

#18 UCF @ Cincinnati 8 PM EDT ESPN

New Mexico @ San Jose State 10 PM EDT CBSSN

Saturday, October 5th

#14 Iowa @ #19 Michigan Noon EDT FOX

Tulane @ Army Noon EDT CBSSN

Maryland @ Rutgers Noon EDT BTN

TCU @ Iowa State Noon EDT ESPN2

South Florida @ UConn Noon EDT CBSSN

Boston College @ Louisville 12:30 PM EDT ACCNX

Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan 3 PM EDT ESPN+

#7 Auburn @ #10 Florida 3:30 PM EDT CBS

Baylor @ Kansas State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN2

Western Michigan @ Toledo 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Ball State @ Northern Illinois 3:30 PM EDT ESPN3

Arkansas State @ Georgia State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Air Force @ Navy 3:30 PM EDT CBSSN

Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL) 3:30 PM EDT ESPN

Northwestern @ Nebraska 4 PM EDT FOX tossup tbh

Arizona @ Colorado 4:30 PM EDT PAC12N

#25 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State 7:30 PM EDT ABC

Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss 7:30 PM EDT SECN another tossup

California @ #13 Oregon 8 PM EDT FOX

Pittsburgh @ Duke 8 PM EDT ACCN

Oregon State @ UCLA 9 PM EDT PAC12N

FCS:

Furman @ Samford 3 PM EDT

Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa 5 PM EDT

[Illiniwek]

Week 6 FBS/FCS matchups:

Friday, October 4th

#18 UCF @ Cincinnati 8 PM EDT ESPN

New Mexico @ San Jose State 10 PM EDT CBSSN

Saturday, October 5th

#14 Iowa @ #19 Michigan Noon EDT FOX

Tulane @ Army Noon EDT CBSSN

Maryland @ Rutgers Noon EDT BTN

TCU @ Iowa State Noon EDT ESPN2

South Florida @ UConn Noon EDT CBSSN

Boston College @ Louisville 12:30 PM EDT ACCNX

Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan 3 PM EDT ESPN+

#7 Auburn @ #10 Florida 3:30 PM EDT CBS

Baylor @ Kansas State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN2

Western Michigan @ Toledo 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Ball State @ Northern Illinois 3:30 PM EDT ESPN3

Arkansas State @ Georgia State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Air Force @ Navy 3:30 PM EDT CBSSN

Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL) 3:30 PM EDT ESPN

Northwestern @ Nebraska 4 PM EDT FOX

Arizona @ Colorado 4:30 PM EDT PAC12N

#25 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State 7:30 PM EDT ABC

Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss 7:30 PM EDT SECN

California @ #13 Oregon 8 PM EDT FOX

Pittsburgh @ Duke 8 PM EDT ACCN

Oregon State @ UCLA 9 PM EDT PAC12N

FCS:

Furman @ Samford 3 PM EDT

Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa 5 PM EDT

[Donerail]

Friday, October 4th
UCF @ Cincinnati
New Mexico @ San Jose State

Saturday, October 5th
Iowa @ Michigan
Tulane @ Army
Maryland @ Rutgers
TCU @ Iowa State
South Florida @ UConn (with a prediction: Strong's done if they lose)
Boston College @ Louisville
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan
Auburn @ Florida
Baylor @ Kansas State
Western Michigan @ Toledo
Ball State @ Northern Illinois
Arkansas State @ Georgia State
Air Force @ Navy
Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL)
Northwestern @ Nebraska
Arizona @ Colorado
Michigan State @ Ohio State
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss
California @ Oregon
Pittsburgh @ Duke
Oregon State @ UCLA

FCS:
Furman @ Samford
Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa

[Terry the Fat Shark]

The picks are mostly all within 7 points on the spread, quite the contrast from last week lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

The picks are mostly all within 7 points on the spread, quite the contrast from last week lol

Yes, a good slate this week.  Although Michigan State is a 20-point underdog; I wonder if that's a record for a ranked team.

[GeorgiaModerate]

UCF @ Cincinnati
New Mexico @ San Jose State

Iowa @ Michigan
Tulane @ Army (normally I'd go with Army as a small home underdog, but I think Tulane is definitely the better team.  It feels very weird to type that.)
Maryland @ Rutgers
TCU @ Iowa State
South Florida @ UConn
Boston College @ Louisville
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan
Auburn @ Florida (see Tulane/Army)
Baylor @ Kansas State
Western Michigan @ Toledo
Ball State @ Northern Illinois
Arkansas State @ Georgia State
Air Force @ Navy
Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL)
Northwestern @ Nebraska
Arizona @ Colorado
Michigan State @ Ohio State
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss
California @ Oregon
Pittsburgh @ Duke
Oregon State @ UCLA

Furman @ Samford
Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The picks are mostly all within 7 points on the spread, quite the contrast from last week lol

Yes, a good slate this week.  Although Michigan State is a 20-point underdog; I wonder if that's a record for a ranked team.

No their have been several games between ranked teams with an over 20 point spread.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/9gfznw/what_is_the_largest_point_spread_between_two/

[JGibson]

Week 6 FBS/FCS matchups:

Friday, October 4th

#18 UCF @ Cincinnati 8 PM EDT ESPN

New Mexico @ San Jose State 10 PM EDT CBSSN

Saturday, October 5th

#14 Iowa @ #19 Michigan Noon EDT FOX

Tulane @ Army Noon EDT CBSSN

Maryland @ Rutgers Noon EDT BTN

TCU @ Iowa State Noon EDT ESPN2

South Florida @ UConn Noon EDT CBSSN

Boston College @ Louisville 12:30 PM EDT ACCNX

Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan 3 PM EDT ESPN+

#7 Auburn @ #10 Florida 3:30 PM EDT CBS

Baylor @ Kansas State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN2

Western Michigan @ Toledo 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Ball State @ Northern Illinois 3:30 PM EDT ESPN3

Arkansas State @ Georgia State 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

Air Force @ Navy 3:30 PM EDT CBSSN

Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL) 3:30 PM EDT ESPN

Northwestern @ Nebraska 4 PM EDT FOX

Arizona @ Colorado 4:30 PM EDT PAC12N

#25 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State 7:30 PM EDT ABC

Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss 7:30 PM EDT SECN

California @ #13 Oregon 8 PM EDT FOX

Pittsburgh @ Duke 8 PM EDT ACCN

Oregon State @ UCLA 9 PM EDT PAC12N

FCS:

Furman @ Samford 3 PM EDT

Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa 5 PM EDT