Let the great boundary rejig commence

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Welsh Electoral Reform Society Recommendations for Wales
(published June 9th 2010)

[snip]
Could I ask someone more skilled than me to table that please and could I also ask for a named current ward map of Wales so I can show which wards go into which seats? (please e-mail me direct with map)

Complete with Welsh translations (corrections welcome)

Name of constituency	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Plaid	UKIP	Green	BNP	Ind	Others	Totals	Electorate	Turnout	Winner
Y Barri a Phenarth - Barry and Penarth	18,106	16,387	8,112	2,433	1,419	485	0	186	306	47,434	73,652	64.40%	Con
Blaenau Gwent a Thredegar - Blaenau Gwent and Tredegar	2,781	16,612	4,198	1,981	623	0	1,227	696	4,675	32,795	78,027	42.03%	Lab
Siroedd Frycheiniog a Threfaldwyn - Breconshire and Montgomeryshire	14,085	3,304	15,520	1,839	994	181	0	152	409	36,485	73,630	49.55%	Lib Dem
Pen-y-Bont ar Ogwr - Bridgend	10,213	15,024	7,870	2,514	796	0	1,072	0	0	37,489	75,991	49.33%	Lab
Caerffili - Caerphilly	6,038	16,700	5,587	4,996	893	0	1,450	985	14	36,662	78,773	46.54%	Lab
Canol Caerdydd - Cardiff Central	10,637	13,184	12,753	1,437	912	532	0	191	341	39,988	74,574	53.62%	Lab
Gogledd Ddwyrain Caerdydd - Cardiff North East	13,568	15,702	10,680	1,589	1,043	479	0	236	361	43,658	75,345	57.94%	Lab
Gorllewin Caerdydd - Cardiff West	13,851	17,175	8,066	2,335	1,125	607	0	106	165	43,428	74,061	58.64%	Lab
Caerfyrddin - Carmarthen	11,546	11,885	5,156	9,011	1,173	13	0	134	16	38,934	75,798	51.37%	Lab
Ceredigion a Rhaeadr - Ceredigion and Rhayader	7,325	3,406	16,990	8,634	980	528	0	34	66	37,963	74,042	51.27%	Lib Dem
Conwy ac Abergele - Conwy and Abergele	13,623	8,667	5,765	5,561	759	0	18	54	194	34,642	74,374	46.58%	Con
Dinbych, Llangollen a Bro Conwy - Denbigh, Llangollen and the Vale of Conwy	12,256	12,428	5,762	3,543	764	0	711	21	80	35,564	74,357	47.83%	Lab
Y Fflint a'r Rhyl - Flint and Rhyl	12,629	15,043	4,982	1,978	571	0	834	0	76	36,114	73,720	48.99%	Lab
Gwynedd a Machynlleth - Gwynedd and Machynlleth	6,367	5,220	4,325	10,863	774	0	0	788	31	28,369	75,318	37.67%	Plaid
Llanelli	7,203	14,349	4,590	10,804	1,063	0	118	0	0	38,127	75,776	50.32%	Lab
Merthyr Tudful ac Ystrad Mynach - Merthyr Tydifl and Ystrad Mynach	4,034	15,421	8,002	3,495	891	0	1,338	1,303	111	34,596	78,860	43.87%	Lab
Yr Wyddgrug a Shotton - Mold and Shotton	12,868	15,638	6,949	1,617	928	0	1,247	0	0	39,247	75,949	51.68%	Lab
Trefaldwyn - Monmouth	18,945	12,211	9,526	1,140	1,017	445	283	0	30	43,598	78,292	55.69%	Con
Castell-nedd ac Aberafan - Neath and Aberavon	4,681	16,768	5,183	3,531	615	0	1,284	556	338	32,955	74,811	44.05%	Lab
Casnewydd - Newport	10,524	14,672	8,710	935	924	238	1,176	0	58	37,237	75,491	49.33%	Lab
Penfro - Pembroke	16,827	12,691	5,414	3,883	1,001	0	0	145	0	39,961	75,339	53.04%	Con
Pontypridd ac Aberdâr - Pontypridd and Aberdare	3,845	15,315	6,302	5,011	1,037	110	0	135	250	32,004	76,594	41.78%	Lab
Rhondda ac Ogwr - Rhondda and Ogmore	3,300	17,213	4,727	4,712	564	41	313	1,648	94	32,612	75,838	43.00%	Lab
Dwyrain Abertawe a Bro Nedd - Swansea East and the Vale of Neath	5,861	15,564	6,960	4,863	806	120	1,286	81	96	35,637	77,901	45.75%	Lab
Gogledd Abertawe a Llwchwr - Swansea North and Loughor	8,123	15,936	7,478	2,280	758	221	1,345	52	25	36,217	74,988	48.30%	Lab
Gorllewin Abertawe a Gŵyr - Swansea West and Gower	9,345	13,539	10,561	1,870	695	272	927	252	120	37,581	77,775	48.32%	Lab
Tor-faen - Torfaen	9,213	16,527	6,474	1,826	922	449	1,492	1,594	0	38,497	78,434	49.08%	Lab
Bro Elai - Vale of Ely	11,178	15,772	8,758	2,776	1,234	479	84	0	374	40,657	73,196	55.55%	Lab
Wrecsam - Wrexham	9,003	12,505	7,744	2,322	787	0	1,124	0	0	33,486	74,020	45.24%	Lab
Ynys Môn a Bangor - Anglesey and Bangor	7,223	10,322	3,105	8,805	1,035	0	0	1,526	123	32,140	74,167	43.33%	Lab

I can't help but think that they may have to revise this 30-seat scheme.  The electorate figures I have for 2009 only give Wales 29 seats.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Update: The Welsh ERS have now published all the details, including maps, at http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/downloads/reduce_and_equalise_english_web.pdf.

I'm currently working on a scheme for a 62-seat Cheshire and Lancashire which fits the new requirements.  Anyone interested?

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, that Powys East seat is ugly. Though I like the Empty Parts of Northeast Wales seat, somehow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's have a look map by map...

Gwent & Mid Glamorgan: overall impression... urgh, but I've seen worse. Some of the constituencies make a degree of sense (putting all of Nye's old seat in one constituency is something I approve of, of course) but some are very odd. Their Caerphilly would not survive the hearings process. Also, stupid names... they don't seem to be aware that Tredegar is actually in Blaenau Gwent already.

South Glamorgan: overall impression... ghastly. Words don't exist to describe the utter stupidity of 'Vale of Ely'. The overall map like a desperate attempt to keep a LibDem seat in Cardiff with less seats to play with and I don't have any nicer words for it than that.

West Glamorgan: overall impression... these people should never be allowed to have anything to do with drawing electoral boundaries ever. A clear attempt to draw a non-Labour constituency in the Swansea area. There are not words. Vile. And they don't seem to know what the Gower actually is. Idiots.

Dyfed: this is just insane. I know Mid Wales quite well and I think you'll find that transport links make severl constituencies there impossible. I also don't know what the hell they think they're doing with Llanelli.

Gwynedd: surprisingly reasonable, though I don't think there's any way that Gwynedd & Machynlleth would survive hearings.

Clwyd: again, better than other areas though I don't like it. I would have to question whether the interests of the people of Chirk have much to do with those of the people of Llanrwst, though will admit that interior NE Wales is a problem.

Powys: DIAF

[YL]

Let's have a look map by map...

Gwent & Mid Glamorgan: overall impression... urgh, but I've seen worse. Some of the constituencies make a degree of sense (putting all of Nye's old seat in one constituency is something I approve of, of course) but some are very odd. Their Caerphilly would not survive the hearings process. Also, stupid names... they don't seem to be aware that Tredegar is actually in Blaenau Gwent already.

South Glamorgan: overall impression... ghastly. Words don't exist to describe the utter stupidity of 'Vale of Ely'. The overall map like a desperate attempt to keep a LibDem seat in Cardiff with less seats to play with and I don't have any nicer words for it than that.

West Glamorgan: overall impression... these people should never be allowed to have anything to do with drawing electoral boundaries ever. A clear attempt to draw a non-Labour constituency in the Swansea area. There are not words. Vile. And they don't seem to know what the Gower actually is. Idiots.

Dyfed: this is just insane. I know Mid Wales quite well and I think you'll find that transport links make severl constituencies there impossible. I also don't know what the hell they think they're doing with Llanelli.

Gwynedd: surprisingly reasonable, though I don't think there's any way that Gwynedd & Machynlleth would survive hearings.

Clwyd: again, better than other areas though I don't like it. I would have to question whether the interests of the people of Chirk have much to do with those of the people of Llanrwst, though will admit that interior NE Wales is a problem.

Powys: DIAF

I imagine that if the proposal really is a rigid 3.5% tolerance either side of the quota then you'll have a lot of similar concerns about a lot of the proposals, and not just in the obvious places like the Isle of Wight and the Highlands and Islands.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's true. But some of the worst proposals are easily avoidable,

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

OK, it's time to go public.  Here's my plan for the North West:



Click on the map for all the details.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting solution to the Manchester problem.

[Harry Hayfield]

OK, it's time to go public.  Here's my plan for the North West:



Click on the map for all the details.

Could you list / send me a "how similar each seat is to the last one" tally and I'd be able to create a set of notionals for those suggestions. By that I mean, Wirral : 100% Wirral West + 7% Wirral South

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Could you list / send me a "how similar each seat is to the last one" tally and I'd be able to create a set of notionals for those suggestions. By that I mean, Wirral : 100% Wirral West + 7% Wirral South

Harry, you have a PM.

[k-onmmunist]

Hooray for Tory gerrymandering!

[Harry Hayfield]

OK, it's time to go public.  Here's my plan for the North West:



Click on the map for all the details.

Notional North Western Summary
(Source: Andrew's allocations, Election 2010 Results from the Guardian)
Votes Cast
Labour 1,208,658 (40.25%)
Conservatives 933,978 (31.11%)
Liberal Democrats 634,547 (21.43%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 97,991 (3.26%)
British National Party 64,125 (2.14%)
Independents 32,975 (1.10%)
Green Party 15,486 (0.52%)
Other Parties 5,787 (0.19%)

Party Wins
Accrington and Blackburn North
Altrincham and Sale West
Ashton under Lyne and Stalybridge
Birkenhead
Blackburn and Darwen
Blackpool North and Fleetwood
Blackpool South
Bolton North and Turton
Bolton South
Bootle and Kirkdale
Burnley and Nelson
Bury North
Bury South and Crumpsall
Cheadle
Chorley
City of Chester
Colne and Clitheroe
Congleton
Crewe and Nantwich
Crosby and West Lancashire
Eccles and Worsley
Eddisbury
Ellesmere Port
Fylde
Garston and Halewood
Halton
Hazel Grove
Heywood and Middleton
Hyde
Knowsley
Lancaster and Morecambe
Leigh
Liverpool, Riverside
Liverpool, Walton
Liverpool, West Derby
Lunesdale and Wyre
Macclesfield
Makerfield
Manchester Central and Moston
Manchester, Didsbury and Wythenshawe
Manchester, Gorton and Hulme
Manchester, Withington and Levenshulme
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Oldham West and Royton
Ormskirk, Maghull and Skelmersdale
Preston
Rochdale
Rossendale
Salford
South Ribble
Southport
St. Helens North
St. Helens South and Whiston
Stockport
Stretford, Urmston and Sale East
Tatton
Wallasey
Warrington North
Warrington South
Westhoughton
Wigan
Wirral

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Thanks Harry.

Pretty much as I was expecting except for Lancaster and Morecambe.  The two predecessor seats (Lancaster & Fleetwood and Morecambe & Lunesdale) both have Tory majorities of less than 1000, and the best Tory areas of both seats are in the new Lunesdale and Wyre.  I would have expected Lancaster & Morecambe to be safeish Labour.

I imagine that Bolton North & Turton and Bury North would have been very close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think he's using the method that assumes that all parts of a given constituency vote the same way; which will obviously get a situation like Lancaster and Morecambe wrong.

[Harry Hayfield]

Pretty much as I was expecting except for Lancaster and Morecambe.  The two predecessor seats (Lancaster & Fleetwood and Morecambe & Lunesdale) both have Tory majorities of less than 1000, and the best Tory areas of both seats are in the new Lunesdale and Wyre.  I would have expected Lancaster & Morecambe to be safeish Labour. I imagine that Bolton North & Turton and Bury North would have been very close.

Lancaster and Morecambe
BNP 422 Con 19,737 Green 1,274 Ind 96 Lab 18,972 Lib Dem 7,915 UKIP 1,768

Bolton North and Turton
Con 19,323 Green 76 Ind 271 Lab 23,196 Lib Dem 7,196 UKIP 2,162

Bury North
BNP 2,092 Con 20,386 Green 153 Ind 307 Lab 19,500 Lib Dem 9,225 UKIP 1,405

[YL]

Those boundaries don't generally seem too bad, although I remain sceptical about the merits of such a strict size criterion.  I can't see anything obviously wrong with the way you've crossed the metropolitan county boundaries, and the boundaries in the north of the area seem neat.

I don't know north Manchester well enough to know whether crossing the Manchester/Bury boundary like that is a good idea.

"Wirral West" seems more descriptive of 62 than just "Wirral".

20 could be "Crosby and Burscough".

17 could be "Pendle and Bowland": I like naming constituencies after hills.  Quite a bit of it is of course really in Yorkshire...

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Thanks YorkshireLiberal.

The make-up of Bury South and Crumpsall is basically, from north to south:
(a) Redvales ward, which covers from the edge of Bury town centre to Blackford Bridge.  This is the only ward in Bury with a significant Muslim population. (Incidentally the Pakistan fast bowler Asif Masood now lives in this ward and used to run Fishpool post office.)
(b) Unsworth ward, the southern end of Bury county borough.  This is a socially mixed ward including the villages of Hollins and Unsworth together with the Sunny Bank estate.
(c) Besses and Pilkington Park wards, the old Whitefield Urban District.  Besses (which used to be well-known for Besses o' th' Barn brass band) is very working-class while Pilkington Park is filthy rich and has a very large Jewish population.
(d) St Mary's, Holyrood and Sedgley wards, which cover Prestwich where I grew up.  Prestwich as a whole is more middle-class than Manchester, and again very Jewish.  (Incidentally Joel Barnett started his political career on the old Prestwich Urban District Council.)
(e) Crumpsall ward, based around Crumpsall tram stop and including the North Manchester General Hospital and the northern end of Cheetham Hill proper.  As I put in the penpic, a lot of parents in Crumpsall ward used to send their kids over the borough boundary down the tram line to Prestwich high school, because of the dodgy reputation of the local high school (Abraham Moss).  The tram line and the 135 bus up Bury Old Road mean that communications between Crumpsall and Prestwich are very good.  That's my justification for crossing the boundary here.
(f) Higher Blackley ward, which to be honest has nothing whatsoever to do with Bury beyond the fact that a lot of people from Prestwich like to relax/exercise in Heaton Park, which is the western half of the ward geographically.  However, a Manchester seat which contained Blackley but not Crumpsall would look very weird indeed.

The problem with calling 20 "Crosby and Burscough" is that Burscough is really just an overgrown village and nobody outside the general area knows where it is, or even how to pronounce it.  Burscough was never important enough to have its own Urban District, but was part of West Lancashire Rural District (along with Maghull).  If you want to put two towns in the name Formby would be a better bet - it's bigger than Burscough and full of powerful millionaires - but "Crosby and Formby" would imply that the seat only contained the coastal strip.

[Harry Hayfield]

Any more regions in the pipeline?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Not from me for a while.  I have another project which is consuming much of my spare time at the moment.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Some blogger called Penddu has had a go at 29 seats for Wales: http://syniadau--buildinganindependentwales.blogspot.com/2010/06/wales-29.html#

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the source I was half-expecting an amusing attempted gerrymander, but, no, quite reasonable for the most part. Much better than the atrocity produced by a certain organisation supporting electoral reform...

Generally South is better than North (though a closer look at Cardiff would have been helpful and I don't like that split of the Gower). I don't think that adding the Conwy valley to Anglesey/Bangor is a good idea and the Wrexham-area seats are a little on the crazed side. But, yeah. Not so bad overall.

[YL]

Based on today's announcement and the December 2009 electorate figures, a target size of 600 gives a quota of 75,701, with a target window from 71,916 to 79,486.  (I guess it may be slightly higher if the target is 598 excluding Orkney and Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.)

Conveniently, this gives Sheffield almost exactly 5 quotas.  Wards would need to be split, though.  (I'm not sure that this is such a bad thing.)

Cornwall and Scilly seem to come out at 5.5 quotas, so it looks like there'll be a "Devonwall" constituency, which could provoke an interesting reaction.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2740
Reading through some of the guesses from UKPR, I can tell this is gonna end up being a rather funny electoral map. Halton's bad enough, but an actual Wirral-Liverpool seat? It's as wierd as a Wirral-Wales seat would be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would have thought the obvious solution wrt the Wirral would be to re-create the 1974-1983 Wirral and Bebington & Ellesmere Port constituencies? The main problem is after all with the suburban seats and not with Burke & Hare or Welsh Island.

[minionofmidas]

I would have thought the obvious solution wrt the Wirral would be to re-create the 1974-1983 Wirral and Bebington & Ellesmere Port constituencies? The main problem is after all with the suburban seats and not with Burke & Hare or Welsh Island.

That would be obvious, which means it will not happen.