2012 NDP leadership convention

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Mulcair is pro business but is perhaps more Left than I gave him credit for. Anyone want to make their own table?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also a note on my table - it is relative to Jack Layton, not NDP voters, or voters in general, or politics in general. Mulcair, Chisholm, are both to the Left of the "middle"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It's math. If the second placed candidate wins 33.33334% of the vote or more, than  it's mathematically impossible for anyone to overtake him.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to 308 http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/11/ndp-and-bq-leadership-endorsement.html Peggy Nash is currently comfortably in 3rd

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If someone has a sh**tty projection, and no one else has any projection, then clearly someone has the best projection around.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Oh?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Anything is a projection.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Here are the new Quebec numbers combined with the old numbers from other provinces

BC - 30,000
Ontario - 22,000
Manitoba - 10,307
Alberta - 9,000
Saskatchewan - 8,974
Quebec - 5,000
Atlantic and North - 13,024

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also, on the earlier 308 discussion; unless I am convinced otherwise, I am going to presume that Nash is the "3rd candidate" and will be the only other person, other than Mulcair and Topp, on the 2nd last ballot. I also don't see Topp being in 3rd on that ballot so that means Nash would have to edge out Mulcair.

How would Mulcair react to being 3rd in the race?
Could Nash beat Topp?

On the latter, I do not think Nash could beat Topp.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

308 posted more projections. I looked at this error margins and this is what I've been able to come up with:
Topp  31.2% - 57.1%
Mulcair 34.5% - 14.5%
Nash 29.2% - 9.2%
Chisholm - 13.5% - 0% (cont)
Culle - 13.3%
Dewar -12.5%
Ashton - 12.4%
Saganash - 11.8%
Singh - 10%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When I was right in predicting the election, I used my gut, and, numbers to restrain my gut. Like a belt, I will use these numbers to show where I think the race is.

Scenario 1 : Topp on Top
Topp - 50.1%
Mulcair - 25.0%
Others - 24.9%

Scenario 2 : Mulcair breakthough
Topp - 33.4%
Mulcair - 33.3%
Others - 33.3%

Scenario 3 : Nash Smash
Topp - 33.3%
Nash - 25.0%
Mulcair - 24.9%
Others - 16.8%

Scenario 4 : Mullin Cullen
Topp - 33.3%
Mulcair - 25.0%
Nash - 13.4%
Cullen - 13.3%
Others - 15.0%

Scenario 5 : The Dewar Lure
Topp - 33.3%
Mulcair - 25.0%
Nash - 12.6%
Dewar - 12.5%
Others - 16.6%

Which of these scenarios will play out on the first ballot will depend on the campaign.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

New membership numbs
Ontario - 25,722
Alberta - 8,361
NS - 2,600
NL - 1,184

Total - 95,006

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

BC - 31,456
ON - 25,722
Man - 10,514
SK - 9,442
AB - 8,361
QC - 5,558
NS - 2,600
NL - 1,184
PE - 169

Not included : NB, TR
NB in September: ~300
Supposedly there are now ~1000 in NB
As well, estimated 201+ in TR

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

More on membership numbers.

I think BC is just about maxed out. IMO they would not be able to take over 33K by the date of the leadership election.
Manitoba too seems tapped out, perhaps 11K max
Saskatchewan is also run dry. Perhaps a total of 10K max
Alberta could see growth if they can convince people, but I'm thinking this would be difficult, as federal membership = provincial membership, and two provincial parties have new leaders that might attract some NDPers. 10K max

This would put 64K in the west.
New Brunswick supposedly has 1,000 members now. I'll take that as a max. NL might be able to sell more memberships as there does seem attraction to the party there, so I'll take 1.5K as a max. Nova Scotia might be able to increase their numbers too, especially considering they have a provincial government. Perhaps as high as 4K. PEI meanwhile would be lucky to get 500.

This puts 7K in the Atlantic.

This is a subtotal of 71K

Currently, Ontario has a little under 26K and Quebec, under 6K. This would give us a total of 32K for the central provinces, for a grand total of 103K

In Ontario the NDP has room to grow, especially with a somewhat successful provincial campaign, and increasing interest in the party. Lets presume they can continue the current trend and improve upon it. They could hit upwards of 41K by the time the cut off hits.

Quebec is where the real question is. If each member convinces two additional members to sign up each month, Quebec could have 48K by voting time. I don't see this as realistic though. If they could gain 4K each month, that gives them 18K by voting day which seems a bit more in like with reality.

So, this would produce the following


ON 41K
BC 33K
QC 18K
MB 11K
AB 10K
SK 10K
NS 4K
NL 1.5K
NB 1K
PE 0.5K
130K total

Quebec would end up with 14% of the final voting population.

Even in my super-quebec scenario, Quebec would end up with only 30%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

 

	Brian Topp Age: 51 Riding: Parkdale High Park, Ontario (He lives here but is not an MP) History: President of the NDP. Note: Seen as Layton's chosen successor by some Born: Longueuil, Quebec. Big Backers: Ed Broadbent, Roy Romanow, Libby Davies
	Thomas Mulcair Age: 56 Riding: Outremont, Quebec History: Former Cabinet minister in Quebec Note: First Francophone to seriously contest an NDP leadership race. Born: Laval, Quebec Big Backers: Lorne Nystrom, Alexandrine Latendresse, Hélène LeBlanc
	Peggy Nash Age: 60 Riding: Parkdale High Park, Ontario History: MP, Union Activist Note: Considered the only Female in the race with a real possibility to win Born: Toronto, Ontario Big Backers: Senior CUPE officials, Alexa McDonough, Lorraine Michael
	Paul Dewar Age: 48 Riding: Ottawa Centre, Ontario History: Mother was Mayor for quite some time, as well as MP and NDP President Note: Seen as inoffensive to NDPers of all stripes Born: Ottawa, Ontario Big Backers: Self
	Nathan Cullen Age: 39 Riding: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, British Columbia History: MP since 2004, businessman Note: Only candidate from the 3 Westmost provinces; where half of the NDP membership resides. Born: Smithers, British Columbia Big Backers: Self
	Romeo Saganash Age: 49 Riding: Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Quebec History: First Nations Leader Note: Possibly the first time a First Nations candidate has run for leader of a major party Born: Waswanipi Cree First Nation Big Backers: Rookie MP Christine Moore
	Robert Chisholm Age: 54 Riding: Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia History: Came within 1 seat of becoming Premier of Nova Scotia Note: Weak in french Born: Kentville, Nova Scotia Big Backers: Darrell Dexter,
	Niki Ashton Age: 29 Riding: Churchill, Manitoba History: Elected in 2008 at age 26 Note: Youngest candidate in the race Born: Thompson, Manioba Big Backers: Self
	Martin Singh Age: 38 Riding: Sackville Eastern Shore, Nova Scotia (He lives here but is not an MP) History: Businessman Note: First Seikh candidate for a major party Born: Nova Scotia Big Backers: None yet

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

fine then YOU make pretty posts

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

oooo. That could give her a nice bump in Quebec.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

 

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[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yes it does... I thought I commented already???

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Who the heck decided that Boulerice was leadership mat?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

He's always talking the French. Leaders need to be able to do QP in English and do it well, as well as be able to ask Q's and give A's in French without having to resort to English.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No, I don't think they are

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Media, Wikipedia, Encyclopaedia makers, His mother (hopefully)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

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Updated following the debate

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Al: Edited
Vosem: CBC has it on their website but it looks like only the english half