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Re: the friendly juror. First of all I really doubt s/he is doing that to **** with the defense. But a friendly juror doesn't mean it's going to hang. Maybe this person starts out with not guilty or I don't know but it doesn't mean they'll be stubborn about it when confronted. Of course s/he might also convince others to come to their side.

Or maybe they're making eye contact to be polite and think he's guilty lol.

Question is, who is the "friendly juror". I don't know/remember the profiles of the jurors, but someone on twitter (if someone could link, that be helpful), said that one of the jurors looked disinterested and bored during the prosecutions closing. Reckon its the same person?

Trump is innocent!

Sure.jan

I like this new version of TimTurner that actually tries to have opinions on things. Granted, those opinions are still terrible and informed by his knee-jerk bothsidesism, but it's better than his usual posting style.

And yes, the Confederates are absolutely morally equivalent to Nazis. Just as no Jew should have to drive down a street named for Goebbels or Göring, no black student should have to attend a school named for Stonewall Jackson or Jefferson Davis. We can hardly expect black people to "just move on" from slavery and Jim Crow if we continue to allow our public squares to be festooned with statues and plaques commemorating the rapists, murderers, traitors, and other forms of morally empty degenerate who fought so hard to keep them enslaved. That seems like a no-brainer (which is probably why TT has so much trouble with it).

Re: the friendly juror. First of all I really doubt s/he is doing that to **** with the defense. But a friendly juror doesn't mean it's going to hang. Maybe this person starts out with not guilty or I don't know but it doesn't mean they'll be stubborn about it when confronted. Of course s/he might also convince others to come to their side.

Or maybe they're making eye contact to be polite and think he's guilty lol.

I've just been thinking about this question generally, but what if he's actually convicted here? I don't  think anyone's really appreciated that question to the full extent.

It's uncharted territory. But I lean towards a ton of media coverage and outrage on social media, his polls go down 5 points for a few weeks and then bounce back like it didn't happen. I hope it has some lasting effect though, if it happens.

Is it just me or is everyone and their mother doing a poll with ipsos?

They must be cheap lol

Same reason so many outlets are still going with Harris poll, though I believe Ipsos is still regarded much higher than Harris, but I imagine both are on the cheaper end

Is it just me or is everyone and their mother doing a poll with ipsos?

Trump is innocent!

It's amazing that he & his business can be unanimously ruled against by 3 juries comprising a total of 30 jurors so far & have that not be considered important foreshadowing as to what 48 more jurors in his not 1, or 2 or even 3, but 4 pending criminal cases are likely to decide.

I've just been thinking about this question generally, but what if he's actually convicted here? I don't  think anyone's really appreciated that question to the full extent.

A first-time nonviolent white-collar offender in New York State is highly unlikely to be sentenced to face a term of incarceration of any length, but Trump is so contemptuous, who knows what Merchan may do & what local trial & appeals judges won't be willing to stay?

Trump team increasingly sees acquittal as unlikely, sees their only path through hung jury.

They seem to think 1 juror may be on their side. Hard to tell if it's just desperate spin at this point though

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1795563214308082144

Probably just coping:

https://twitter.com/jayshams/status/1795802374969147534
https://twitter.com/jayshams/status/1795803592110055630‬

Coping is all they got left tbh lol

Could very well be all over but the crying

Biden 40
Trump 38
RFK Jr. 8
Stein 3
West 1
Some other candidate 8
Undecided 2

There's 3 third-party options and 8% still say 'some other candidate'? 20% for non-Biden/Trump? Now sis...

For the H2H, it looks like a wording change - their prior polls did not include 'some other candidate' like this one did, so that's the reason it looks like this dropped to 42-42 when their last polls totaled 90%+ between the two of them (just offered unsure/refused)

Honestly if i was corbyn I would revive the old "Independent Labour" label.

‘Independent [Party Name]’ labels have been banned on ballots since the Registration of Political Parties Act 1998, which was introduced in response to a spate of candidates running under descriptions like ‘Literal Democrat’. I suppose Corbyn could register a party under a similar name, though again, the Electoral Commission could refuse it if they deem it plausible that it could mislead voters into thinking he’s the official Labour candidate.

Does fundraising numbers still matter with regards to actual outcomes? Trump was very much outraised by Hillary 3:1 back in 2016 and we all know how it ended.

Yeah, they probably don't. You need big money to run an effective campaign but we are WAY past that. Both campaigns are gonna be flush with cash. Whoever has a bit more won't make a difference.

Weren't democrats 2 months ago saying that Biden outraising Trump is a massive reason he's gonna win?

Trump is gonna lose because he doesn't have a platform not because of the amount of money he raises, giving tax cuts to super rich