Italy 2013: The official thread

[SPQR]

Monti will resign as soon as the Stability Law passes.
He said that he does not want to rule for 3 months with a fake majority...which was what Berlusconi wanted him to do.

Basically,Monti just gave Berlusconi the finger. Berlusconi hoped to appear as the anti-Monti and anti-Euro candidate (criticizing Europe,Euro,austerity and proposing tax cuts...) while at the same time not having any no-confidence,so as to appear "responsible".
Resigning immediately instead of staying in power for 3 more months without the possibility of doing anything,Monti just did a great thing. He's a true statesman,while Berlusconi...it just seems ludicrous to discuss about elections when such human trash is around.

This is not politics,it's a war of ethics and culture.

[SPQR]

...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?

This.

Berlusconi's only allies will be La Destra (The Right) and, as usual, the Lega Nord (Northern League).

[SPQR]

Grillo got mad because they went on TV and released interviews.
But the M5S is just a big bluff,with Grillo as the supreme leader and the other ones being common citizens whose only job is to adore him and never ever disobey.

Anyway,just to be clear,the M5S will not make ANY alliance with ANY party.

[SPQR]

There were talks of making the Senate a "Federal Senate",and thus have it work exclusively on regional issues,but then nothing happened.

[SPQR]

There is no definitive date.

[SPQR]

These new center-right "parties" will get nothing more than 1-2% each.
They are pathetic pantomimes,pretending to break away from PdL but still being allies.

[SPQR]

LOL Giuliana Sgrena didn't win SeL's primaries?

Anyway Fassina is not just the spokesman on economic affairs. He doesn't just represent the economic views of the PD,but rather contributes in creating them.
Personally,I like that he's open to criticizing monetary economics and so on,I just don't like his personality. He is way too conflictual.
And he is also too close to the unions.

[SPQR]

There are so many quotes from Lega Nord politicians about how corrupt Berlusconi is and how they would never,ever ally with him or PdL again.
And they are all from 2012.

But is it really worth the time,when it's blatant that they are just a bunch of (racist) idiots?

[SPQR]

Voting for SEL is to push Bersani to left and to prevent PD establishment into making new government as Monti II. If I were Italian, I'd vote for Grillo or Civic Revolution.
To Italian people: Who are the candidates to replace Napolitano as President of the Republic?

Grillo?GRILLO?
Oh my...

Anyway PD's lists for the two Houses are already enough to the left.

As for the next President,the only real candidate was Monti,who I suppose is not viable anymore.
Prodi is respected enough,even though many people (in the center-right,obviously) just associate him to TAXES!!11!1!1!1
D'Alema is hated even within the center-left.

[SPQR]

Isn't accusing an Italian politician of being corrupt like just accusing him of being a politician anyway?

Nah.
Just go and check the number of condemned politicians between the various parties.

[SPQR]

Andrea's analysis actually confirms that Berlusconi's win in 2008 was anything but a landslide...4 regions within 3.3%,which would have dramatically changed the composition of the Senate.

Anyway,the campaign will now be all around the Senate,at least for PD. There is no way that Berlusconi will get close enough at a national level,his only hope is that his southern crooks (Grande Sud,one of the parties with the higher number of criminals in history) hand him Sicilia and Calabria,and that Lega helps him with Lombardia and Veneto.
In that case,as Andrea pointed out, the fact that the opposition seats would have to be split amongst PD,Grillo and Monti would make a PD majority in the Senate impossible,and only God knows what would happen then.


Final note: there are talks of a "non-aggression pact" between PD and Ingroia's Movement in the Senate race,at least in the battleground regions.

[SPQR]

Alfano,also known as THE PUPPET.


He would just be the new Medvedev.

[SPQR]

Well,even now,in Lombardy the last poll showed a tie between Ambrosoli (center-left) and Maroni (LN+PDL),with Albertini (center) a bit behind.
I think it'll end up like in Sicily,also because Ambrosoli is not someone who should scare away "moderates",whereas Albertini has been Mayor of Milan for Forza Italia and was also elected with Forza Italia to the European Parliament,so most of his votes will come from the right.


And one should never forget how the Formigoni-era ended.

[SPQR]

Also,about the issues:

Berlusconi said that the left is envious of the rich,while he would eliminate the IMU on his first day as PM (or whatever he'll be),and he would lower taxes every year.

This is populism at such a pure state that it's almost funny.

[SPQR]

Great numbers for Lazio and Piemonte...honestly I thought my region (Lazio) would have been closer,as it usually is,but what Polverini did as Governor must have had an effect not only on the next regional vote.

At the same time,Ingroia is really,really damaging in Sicily and Campania. I hope that as the campaign goes on,and the enthusiasm for the "new" candidate goes down,SeL will manage to get a good % of that vote.

[SPQR]

The abroad candidates for the Camera (House of Representatives) don't count for anything, since there whoever gets a majority,even of one vote,automatically gets 55% of the deputies.

They DO count instead for the Senate,since there any majority will be semi-razor-thin.

[SPQR]

"Amnistia Giustizia Libertà" is the Radical Party (which in the past also ran under the names "Lista Pannella" and "Lista Bonino" after its two main leaders).

The deciding region in the Senate could become Sicily.
Both big alliances are doing everything to win there and new developments occur every day:
The IBC in Sicily will probably run not only with the PD, SEL and CD ("Democratic Center") lists, but also with a Socialist list and with a "megaphone" list. (The megaphone was the symbol for a list that supported center-left governor candidate Rosario Crocetta in the regional elections.)
The Center-right will run an armada of lists.
Micchiché with his "Grande Sud" (a PdL split-off), who in the regional elections ran separately, will support the center-right.
Most of his counsillors have left his party for "Sicilian Voice" under a guy with the nickname "Mister Preferenze" that seems to own a large vote package. And "Sicilian Voice" could run candidates in the Megaphone list, i.e. support the IBC.
Ex-governor Lombardo with his MPA-PdS, who in 2008 ran with Berlusconi, later was part of the center pole and who in the regional elections ran together with Micciché, could end up supporting CD, i.e. the IBC. At least this is what Loiero wants. (Loiero is some Calabrian ex-governor, who has been in many parties and now in the MPA-PdS.)

Urrrgh! Doesn't the center-left remember their experience with Mastella?
Micciché, Lombardo, Mister Preferenze etc. are just...

There is no way Lombardo will run with the center-left (that is,IBC).

Always remember that Loiero left PD because he had been a total failure as a governor.

[SPQR]

If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party.

That's the end of PdL then.

[SPQR]

The Italian election Wiki page has finally made their poll table easy to read and the January 10th poll from Euromedia stands out...

IBC - 39%
Center-right - 31%
M5S - 12%
AMI - 11%
RC - 4%
Others - 4%

Euromedia=Berlusconi,don't get wet.

[SPQR]

I've heard from one PD supporter - one! - that Silvio lost. Looks like the old man is back at it.

Huh,weren't you anti-Berlusconi just a few months ago?
Thank God people like you can't vote.

[SPQR]

He had a good performance,that's for sure.
It wasn't a talk show,it was a circus,since Santoro allowed him to do and say whatever he wanted.
And Berlusconi fits perfectly well in that kind of environment.

In these next weeks anyway all he can do is revitalize his old base (that is,those who aren't dead yet - considering he does well amongst those 70+yo).

[SPQR]

This happens every single election,and now Grillo threatens to boycott the election...what a clown.

[SPQR]

I'm right now in Milan and seen tents of SEL and Civic Choice. In the railway station there's massive "Vota PD" ads and I even saw one Lega Nord poster. But where's PDL?! It's early to campaign but I thought that here would be more ads and campaining.

I'm sure that all really starts up once February hits. The PdL Deputy in North/Central America isn't having his kickoff until the second week in February (though the situation is obviously different here).

Campaigning starts this week.

[SPQR]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

[SPQR]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.

One must always remember that the lead in 2006 was "only" 4-5%, and that polls were prohibited in the last week of campaigning,which was when Berlusconi ended the debate with Prodi announcing that he would have cancelled ICI (tax on houses).