FL-Tel Opinion Research: Biden 39, Sanders 16, others 5 or less

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Tel Opinion Research, May 8, 800 LV (change from March 21)

Biden 39 (+2)
Sanders 16 (+3)
Warren 5 (-1)
Harris 5 (+1)
Buttigieg 3 (not in previous poll)
O'Rourke 1 (-4)
Booker 1 (-1)
Klobuchar 1 (nc)

[TML]

Please note that more than half of this poll’s respondents were over 45, so take that into account when determining the candidates’ true standing.

[Mr. Morden]

Please note that more than half of this poll’s respondents were over 45, so take that into account when determining the candidates’ true standing.

64% of voters in the 2016 Florida Democratic primary were over the age of 45, according to the exit poll:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/FL/Dem

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Yeah, I wouldn't expect Sanders to do well here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please note that more than half of this poll’s respondents were over 45, so take that into account when determining the candidates’ true standing.

Is it that far off?  According to this article from 2018, 45% of Florida's registered Democrats were under 50.  Therefore 55% were over 50.

[ProudModerate2]

Please note that more than half of this poll’s respondents were over 45, so take that into account when determining the candidates’ true standing.

64% of voters in the 2016 Florida Democratic primary were over the age of 45, according to the exit poll:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/FL/Dem

In that case, the poll is quite realistic when determining each candidate's true standing (as of today).

[Senator Incitatus]

Florida is one state where Sanders has absolutely no path to victory. The electorate is too old and too moderate.

(But every delegate counts.)

[Xing]

I doubt Sanders is down 30 nationally if he's down 23 in one of his worst primary states...

[Senator Incitatus]

I doubt Sanders is down 30 nationally if he's down 23 in one of his worst primary states...

That math doesn't necessarily track if it's not a two-way primary.

And I think what makes FL terrible for Sanders is his low ceiling, not a low floor. So he could be currently polling near his national average in the state, but unlike in other states, he's about capped out around 20-25% here.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

"As far as the Presidential election goes, which type of candidate would you prefer to vote for… someone who reflects your values and beliefs OR someone who has the better chance of beating President Donald Trump?"

                    Values       Beat Trump
Conservative    62               36
Moderate         59               40
Liberal             42               56

Curiously enough, only liberals choose beating Trump over their values.

[Senator Incitatus]

"As far as the Presidential election goes, which type of candidate would you prefer to vote for… someone who reflects your values and beliefs OR someone who has the better chance of beating President Donald Trump?"

                    Values       Beat Trump
Conservative    62               36
Moderate         59               40
Liberal             42               56

Curiously enough, only liberals choose beating Trump over their values.

Makes sense given that the least "liberal" candidate (which, uh, these terms are probably no longer applicable to the Democratic electorate) is also the most electable, they're the only group that has to make that trade-off.

[Xing]

I doubt Sanders is down 30 nationally if he's down 23 in one of his worst primary states...

That math doesn't necessarily track if it's not a two-way primary.

And I think what makes FL terrible for Sanders is his low ceiling, not a low floor. So he could be currently polling near his national average in the state, but unlike in other states, he's about capped out around 20-25% here.

I mean, other than the Deep South states and maybe Delaware, where else would he lose by more than 30%? I was simply saying that a 23% loss for Sanders, while obviously not what he needs, does not suggest he's losing by 30% or that it's a 49 state near sweep for Biden.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Please note that more than half of this poll’s respondents were over 45, so take that into account when determining the candidates’ true standing.

How did poll unskewing work out for Romney supporters?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Please note that more than half of this poll’s respondents were over 45, so take that into account when determining the candidates’ true standing.

That's typical of Florida, I'm actually surprised this poll skewed so young.

[The Mikado]

Please note that more than half of this poll’s respondents were over 45, so take that into account when determining the candidates’ true standing.

Dude, it's Florida. God's Waiting Room, Florida.

2016 FL Dem primary exit poll:

18-29: 15%
30-44: 20%
45-64: 39%
65+: 25%

Why the hell is "half of the voters are over 45" surprising when last primary, 64% of voters were over 45? What is wrong with you?

As annoying as unskewing is, it's even worse when the person doesn't bother to take the 15? 20? seconds required to pull up the 2016 exit poll to get some idea of the appropriate demographic makeup of the state's Dem primary. Why can't you people do that first?