Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016)

[lilTommy]

Riding boundaries have been redrawn for this election.  There will be 61 constituencies up from 58.

Do you have a link to the new map? I can commence work on an updated blank map for on here.

not sure if a link to the Maps on http://www.elections.sk.ca/voters/maps/new/ will help you at all?

[lilTommy]

Not sure if this would be called a gaffe, but this looks to have exposed a rather horrible SASK provincial policy; they can/will ship homeless people out of province (According to the SP government this is all OK as long as they have a plan? what?)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/saskatchewan-buys-1-way-bus-tickets-to-b-c-for-homeless-men-1.3483429

[lilTommy]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

The NDP got 20 seats in 2007. This polling is the best the NDP has been polling since 2011, they haven't really broke 30% until February of this year... a 9 point increase since the new year.

Regional Breakdown:
Regina - NDP 44% SP 44% - vs 2011 - NDP 40% SP 55%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 53% - vs 2011 - NDP 37% SP 58%
Rest of SK - NDP - 33% SP 53%

Compare that to the 2007 Election in the two cities:
Regina - NDP 47% SP 35%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 42%

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

[lilTommy]

Sure, some almost copies:
- Basic Income pilot project
- Raising taxes on the wealthy ($175K and above) while the basic personal tax exemption would be increased by $500
- carbon pricing
- Focusing on Renewable's; Restoring climate change and environmental assessment and protection programs (fed LPC made them tighter I believe)
... very NDP stuff like anti-privatization, some populist "cut waste" stuff (mostly focused on luxury travel, procurement process's etc)

that's all I can see for now...
 

[lilTommy]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

The NDP got 20 seats in 2007. This polling is the best the NDP has been polling since 2011, they haven't really broke 30% until February of this year... a 9 point increase since the new year.

Regional Breakdown:
Regina - NDP 44% SP 44% - vs 2011 - NDP 40% SP 55%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 53% - vs 2011 - NDP 37% SP 58%
Rest of SK - NDP - 33% SP 53%

Compare that to the 2007 Election in the two cities:
Regina - NDP 47% SP 35%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 42%

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

I wrote about the similarity between the recent poll results and the 2007 election above. Does everybody have me on ignore?

HA, No... my only excuse is your post was 2 weeks ago and this is a new poll?

BUT comparing the two now, looks like the Liberal vote in both Regina and Saskatoon is what is helping to shift the votes but for two different parties?
Regina - NDP to 44% from 37%, Liberals down from 9% to 6% (green vote also dropped from 9% to 6% as well)
BUT in Saskatoon the SP increased from 45% to 53% while the Liberals dropped from 9% to 3%

[lilTommy]

Seat projections are also hampered by re-distribution with 3 new seats (2 in Saskatoon and 1 in Regina) and all other riding's but Cumberland and Athabasca being redrawn to some extent.
Is there anyone who can extrapolate the 2011 votes into the 2016 Districts?

[lilTommy]

Ugh. SK NDP wants to reduce the number of seats. So the next time the Sask Party gets 60%, they can be assured of getting wiped out entirely (save for maybe the two northern seats)

Just read that! move to 55 seats next election... which is more in line with the population per seat with Manitoba I suppose, about 20K+ or so, now its under 18K per seat or so from the figures I saw. Still camman, I can understand some populism (the "gravy plane", ok that I can get on board with without too much cringe) but ugh, should have just left this alone and not added seats for like 20 years or something

[lilTommy]

If the Polls are true come tmr; the SaskPartys is going to win big again, the NDP depending on where the votes are concentrated, could get about 12-15, on the higher side if the votes work out well for the NDP in Regina where they are polling about 2011, but the SaskP is polling worse (about 5 points lower).

The higher Liberal vote in Regina looks to be pulled more from the SP; in Saskatoon it's about even. I wonder if those polled who said Liberal will still vote Liberal?
I'm wondering if the NDPs "rural vote" is concentrated more in the 4 small city ridings in Prince Albert and Moose Jaw, which could be enough to take them, since they have almost no shot anywhere else in Rural Sask.

NDP targets/potential pickups:

Prince Albert Northcote
Regina Coronation Park
Regina Douglas Park
Saskatoon fairview
Saskatoon Meewasin
 - That would be 15 seats (if we assume they hold the 10 they hold under the new map)

IF the NDP performs better then they are polling (closer to 40%) (seats close to 40% with transposition using the 2011 number http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2016/03/saskatchewans-new-electoral-map.html )

Regaina Pasqua
Regina University
Regina Walch Acres
Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood
Saskatoon Eastview
 - That's 20, around 2007 results

Anything more would be an unexpected win for the NDP I think.