Who was the last Republican to win the black vote? (user search)
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  Who was the last Republican to win the black vote? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Who was the last Republican to win the black vote?  (Read 8022 times)
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770
« on: November 14, 2017, 12:47:19 PM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley


Couple of things stick out.

1. Harding's dominance of the black vote and then the drop between him and Coolidge.
2. The 15 point drop in Eisenhower; no idea why this happened especially given his Supreme Court pick presided over Brown vs Board of Education in 1954.
3. Gerald Ford's surprising 17% of the black vote.

The Regan drop is probably due to his policies neglecting inner cities. Reagan also suffered a drop in the rural Midwest.
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Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2017, 05:54:06 PM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley


Couple of things stick out.

1. Harding's dominance of the black vote and then the drop between him and Coolidge.
2. The 15 point drop in Eisenhower; no idea why this happened especially given his Supreme Court pick presided over Brown vs Board of Education in 1954.
3. Gerald Ford's surprising 17% of the black vote.

The Regan drop is probably due to his policies neglecting inner cities. Reagan also suffered a drop in the rural Midwest.


You misread 1952-1956, Ike GAINED 15 points because of Brown v Board, that and Stevenson and Co. were generally very lukewarm toward civil rights and took the vote for granted. There's a reason it was precisely at that moment LBJ switched positions on Civil Rights.

What I don't get it is how Al Gore did better in the black vote than Hillary.

As for Ford, Carter was from the Old South and played MH to segregationists to even get into Governorship...that's gonna leave a mark.

Ugh. YUGE brain fart. You're right about Ike.

Yeah, totally forgot that Carter pandered to segregationists during his 1970 Georgia governors bid, while Ford voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act as a Congressman from Michigan.
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