What would be the results in each state, based off this map? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2024, 09:55:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  What would be the results in each state, based off this map? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What would be the results in each state, based off this map?  (Read 1696 times)
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« on: July 28, 2017, 10:10:11 AM »

From what i can tell from that Blurry Map. Republicans win Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, and Probably Wyoming Definitively. Alabama, Utah, Louisiana, Maybe Georgia and Mississippi could also of been won by the Republicans. Rest would go Democrat. This would probably take a 65% Plus Democratic Landslide to happen considered how many 80-90%+ flip to the democrats.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2017, 03:03:07 PM »

From what i can tell from that Blurry Map. Republicans win Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, and Probably Wyoming Definitively. Alabama, Utah, Louisiana, Maybe Georgia and Mississippi could also of been won by the Republicans. Rest would go Democrat. This would probably take a 65% Plus Democratic Landslide to happen considered how many 80-90%+ flip to the democrats.

There is a link to the direct page as well, where a clearer link could be found. I agree about the first row of states, but I'm still not sure about Utah or the ones in the Deep South.

Thanks. That map is much better.

Utah - This state depends on the type of Margins Dems are getting in Salt Lake County and Utah County's. These are the first and second most populous county's in the state. Salt Lake County is already a swing county and for a Democrat to have chance they need upwards of 60% there. Utah county is a heavily republican country with it going to Romney 88% in 2012. I doubt a democrat in the near future can win here but if they do it will probably be in the extreme landslide you depict here. 50-60% here is a healthy margin. And of course the margins in those surrounding democratic county's matter too as they have a large population. The thing is even if a democrat wins all of that South Utah and central Utah could still outvote those county's so the margins there are crucial too.
BTW I see the Map you posted is the 2016 one except all the county's in Utah trump got in the 50s% range or less are given to the Democrats.

Alabama - There is a Chance here as Republicans still look like they have won most of Northern Alabama and Shelby County. The Black belt county's throughout the south are of relatively low populations and even though they may look like (if a democrat wins all of them) a large part of the map; Democrats still require more. Montgomery County and the coastal Alabaman county's are crucial here.

Louisiana - This looks near identical to the 1988 map in where Dukakis won Cajun County's and a large part of the southern area but Bush ran it up in the North and the New Orleans suburban county's surrounding New Orleans itself. He won by 10.2% and if this is any similar i think Republicans would win her by 2-5%. Also im surprised a Republican could win that many Black majority county's up north and still lose nationwide by a extreme landslide.
EDIT: Oh wait i noticed that's a exact replica of 1964

Georgia - That looks like either a better Obama in 2008/12 or a Better Clinton in 2016. You seem to have added all 50s% Republican county's in 2008 and 2012 to the Democrat and added all Suburban Atlanta county's minus Gwinnett County, the Second most populous county in Georgia. If you added Gwinnett to the Democrats i would say that is a very narrow Democratic victory but since the republicans won it I don't know. Also the republicans held on to North Georgia which contains over a million people so that is a minus for Democrats winning her. After closer look i know say that Georgia is narrowly head on by Republicans

Mississippi - The state is like Alabama in which on a county level it is always surprising how say a Republican wins by 15% when if you look on a map half the county's there are democratic ones. This is again due to the fact that the Black Majority county's along the Mississippi river are of low population while more inland county's contain more which results in a Republican Victory. The key here is how Madison, Rankin, Harrision, and Jackson have voted and also DeSoto. These are the next most populous county's in the state after Hinds, home to the Capital. Out of all of those, only one (Madison) voted for the democrat. However if the margins are very low there for Republicans then the Democrats could of won there. Though also there is some population in South Mississippi and the Extreme north which could tip the balance in favor of Republicans.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2017, 03:36:18 PM »



I think this is the most likely outcome, but it obviously depends on the margins of victory in these counties. Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and maybe Idaho would be very close.

This also looks good minus South Dakota
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2017, 06:10:03 PM »

From what i can tell from that Blurry Map. Republicans win Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, and Probably Wyoming Definitively. Alabama, Utah, Louisiana, Maybe Georgia and Mississippi could also of been won by the Republicans. Rest would go Democrat. This would probably take a 65% Plus Democratic Landslide to happen considered how many 80-90%+ flip to the democrats.

There is a link to the direct page as well, where a clearer link could be found. I agree about the first row of states, but I'm still not sure about Utah or the ones in the Deep South.

Thanks. That map is much better.

Utah - This state depends on the type of Margins Dems are getting in Salt Lake County and Utah County's. These are the first and second most populous county's in the state. Salt Lake County is already a swing county and for a Democrat to have chance they need upwards of 60% there. Utah county is a heavily republican country with it going to Romney 88% in 2012. I doubt a democrat in the near future can win here but if they do it will probably be in the extreme landslide you depict here. 50-60% here is a healthy margin. And of course the margins in those surrounding democratic county's matter too as they have a large population. The thing is even if a democrat wins all of that South Utah and central Utah could still outvote those county's so the margins there are crucial too.
BTW I see the Map you posted is the 2016 one except all the county's in Utah trump got in the 50s% range or less are given to the Democrats.

Alabama - There is a Chance here as Republicans still look like they have won most of Northern Alabama and Shelby County. The Black belt county's throughout the south are of relatively low populations and even though they may look like (if a democrat wins all of them) a large part of the map; Democrats still require more. Montgomery County and the coastal Alabaman county's are crucial here.

Louisiana - This looks near identical to the 1988 map in where Dukakis won Cajun County's and a large part of the southern area but Bush ran it up in the North and the New Orleans suburban county's surrounding New Orleans itself. He won by 10.2% and if this is any similar i think Republicans would win her by 2-5%. Also im surprised a Republican could win that many Black majority county's up north and still lose nationwide by a extreme landslide.
EDIT: Oh wait i noticed that's a exact replica of 1964

Georgia - That looks like either a better Obama in 2008/12 or a Better Clinton in 2016. You seem to have added all 50s% Republican county's in 2008 and 2012 to the Democrat and added all Suburban Atlanta county's minus Gwinnett County, the Second most populous county in Georgia. If you added Gwinnett to the Democrats i would say that is a very narrow Democratic victory but since the republicans won it I don't know. Also the republicans held on to North Georgia which contains over a million people so that is a minus for Democrats winning her. After closer look i know say that Georgia is narrowly head on by Republicans

Mississippi - The state is like Alabama in which on a county level it is always surprising how say a Republican wins by 15% when if you look on a map half the county's there are democratic ones. This is again due to the fact that the Black Majority county's along the Mississippi river are of low population while more inland county's contain more which results in a Republican Victory. The key here is how Madison, Rankin, Harrision, and Jackson have voted and also DeSoto. These are the next most populous county's in the state after Hinds, home to the Capital. Out of all of those, only one (Madison) voted for the democrat. However if the margins are very low there for Republicans then the Democrats could of won there. Though also there is some population in South Mississippi and the Extreme north which could tip the balance in favor of Republicans.


I see. From your opinion, which state would be the closest? Which states would be won by either side, by less than ten percent? And which ones would be between ten and twenty percentage points?

Closest - Hard to say without a look at the margins of each county. If i had to guess i would say Tennessee due to the fact that Democrats are able to win the state due to wins in the Urban areas and the Central areas while Republicans are able to make it close due to wins in Nashville's suburban populous county's. and also Appalachia.  Though Mississippi or Utah wouldn't Surprise me

States won - In my opinions Democrats win all states minus Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska 3rd district, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Alabama, Louisiana, and Maybe Georgia, Mississippi, and Utah. Maybe Tennessee too.

Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2017, 06:11:46 PM »

From what i can tell from that Blurry Map. Republicans win Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, and Probably Wyoming Definitively. Alabama, Utah, Louisiana, Maybe Georgia and Mississippi could also of been won by the Republicans. Rest would go Democrat. This would probably take a 65% Plus Democratic Landslide to happen considered how many 80-90%+ flip to the democrats.

There is a link to the direct page as well, where a clearer link could be found. I agree about the first row of states, but I'm still not sure about Utah or the ones in the Deep South.

Thanks. That map is much better.

Utah - This state depends on the type of Margins Dems are getting in Salt Lake County and Utah County's. These are the first and second most populous county's in the state. Salt Lake County is already a swing county and for a Democrat to have chance they need upwards of 60% there. Utah county is a heavily republican country with it going to Romney 88% in 2012. I doubt a democrat in the near future can win here but if they do it will probably be in the extreme landslide you depict here. 50-60% here is a healthy margin. And of course the margins in those surrounding democratic county's matter too as they have a large population. The thing is even if a democrat wins all of that South Utah and central Utah could still outvote those county's so the margins there are crucial too.
BTW I see the Map you posted is the 2016 one except all the county's in Utah trump got in the 50s% range or less are given to the Democrats.

Alabama - There is a Chance here as Republicans still look like they have won most of Northern Alabama and Shelby County. The Black belt county's throughout the south are of relatively low populations and even though they may look like (if a democrat wins all of them) a large part of the map; Democrats still require more. Montgomery County and the coastal Alabaman county's are crucial here.

Louisiana - This looks near identical to the 1988 map in where Dukakis won Cajun County's and a large part of the southern area but Bush ran it up in the North and the New Orleans suburban county's surrounding New Orleans itself. He won by 10.2% and if this is any similar i think Republicans would win her by 2-5%. Also im surprised a Republican could win that many Black majority county's up north and still lose nationwide by a extreme landslide.
EDIT: Oh wait i noticed that's a exact replica of 1964

Georgia - That looks like either a better Obama in 2008/12 or a Better Clinton in 2016. You seem to have added all 50s% Republican county's in 2008 and 2012 to the Democrat and added all Suburban Atlanta county's minus Gwinnett County, the Second most populous county in Georgia. If you added Gwinnett to the Democrats i would say that is a very narrow Democratic victory but since the republicans won it I don't know. Also the republicans held on to North Georgia which contains over a million people so that is a minus for Democrats winning her. After closer look i know say that Georgia is narrowly head on by Republicans

Mississippi - The state is like Alabama in which on a county level it is always surprising how say a Republican wins by 15% when if you look on a map half the county's there are democratic ones. This is again due to the fact that the Black Majority county's along the Mississippi river are of low population while more inland county's contain more which results in a Republican Victory. The key here is how Madison, Rankin, Harrision, and Jackson have voted and also DeSoto. These are the next most populous county's in the state after Hinds, home to the Capital. Out of all of those, only one (Madison) voted for the democrat. However if the margins are very low there for Republicans then the Democrats could of won there. Though also there is some population in South Mississippi and the Extreme north which could tip the balance in favor of Republicans.


Also, I will change Gwinnett County, GA, so that the state definitively goes Democratic.

Thats Better though i did forget to mention the third most populous county (Cobb) would be won by Democrats if they won the state. Clinton won it this year.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2017, 07:38:51 PM »

From what i can tell from that Blurry Map. Republicans win Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, and Probably Wyoming Definitively. Alabama, Utah, Louisiana, Maybe Georgia and Mississippi could also of been won by the Republicans. Rest would go Democrat. This would probably take a 65% Plus Democratic Landslide to happen considered how many 80-90%+ flip to the democrats.

There is a link to the direct page as well, where a clearer link could be found. I agree about the first row of states, but I'm still not sure about Utah or the ones in the Deep South.

Thanks. That map is much better.

Utah - This state depends on the type of Margins Dems are getting in Salt Lake County and Utah County's. These are the first and second most populous county's in the state. Salt Lake County is already a swing county and for a Democrat to have chance they need upwards of 60% there. Utah county is a heavily republican country with it going to Romney 88% in 2012. I doubt a democrat in the near future can win here but if they do it will probably be in the extreme landslide you depict here. 50-60% here is a healthy margin. And of course the margins in those surrounding democratic county's matter too as they have a large population. The thing is even if a democrat wins all of that South Utah and central Utah could still outvote those county's so the margins there are crucial too.
BTW I see the Map you posted is the 2016 one except all the county's in Utah trump got in the 50s% range or less are given to the Democrats.

Alabama - There is a Chance here as Republicans still look like they have won most of Northern Alabama and Shelby County. The Black belt county's throughout the south are of relatively low populations and even though they may look like (if a democrat wins all of them) a large part of the map; Democrats still require more. Montgomery County and the coastal Alabaman county's are crucial here.

Louisiana - This looks near identical to the 1988 map in where Dukakis won Cajun County's and a large part of the southern area but Bush ran it up in the North and the New Orleans suburban county's surrounding New Orleans itself. He won by 10.2% and if this is any similar i think Republicans would win her by 2-5%. Also im surprised a Republican could win that many Black majority county's up north and still lose nationwide by a extreme landslide.
EDIT: Oh wait i noticed that's a exact replica of 1964

Georgia - That looks like either a better Obama in 2008/12 or a Better Clinton in 2016. You seem to have added all 50s% Republican county's in 2008 and 2012 to the Democrat and added all Suburban Atlanta county's minus Gwinnett County, the Second most populous county in Georgia. If you added Gwinnett to the Democrats i would say that is a very narrow Democratic victory but since the republicans won it I don't know. Also the republicans held on to North Georgia which contains over a million people so that is a minus for Democrats winning her. After closer look i know say that Georgia is narrowly head on by Republicans

Mississippi - The state is like Alabama in which on a county level it is always surprising how say a Republican wins by 15% when if you look on a map half the county's there are democratic ones. This is again due to the fact that the Black Majority county's along the Mississippi river are of low population while more inland county's contain more which results in a Republican Victory. The key here is how Madison, Rankin, Harrision, and Jackson have voted and also DeSoto. These are the next most populous county's in the state after Hinds, home to the Capital. Out of all of those, only one (Madison) voted for the democrat. However if the margins are very low there for Republicans then the Democrats could of won there. Though also there is some population in South Mississippi and the Extreme north which could tip the balance in favor of Republicans.


Also, I will change Gwinnett County, GA, so that the state definitively goes Democratic.

Thats Better though i did forget to mention the third most populous county (Cobb) would be won by Democrats if they won the state. Clinton won it this year.

I think I have Cobb County going to the Democrats on the map as well.

But my thinking is that the Democrats, in this scenario, win 44 states + Washington D.C. Republicans win 6 states, + N.E. 03.

The six Republican states are, in order of margin of victory:

1) West Virginia-won by around 13.0% (The map looks similar to that of 2008).
2) Oklahoma-won by roughly 9.64% (though I am not sure of this. On the map, I have all Oklahoma counties where Trump got less than 60% of the vote go to the Democrats. This includes both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties, where Oklahoma City and Tulsa are located. The Democrats also pick up Cleveland County, to the south of Oklahoma City, and two minor rural counties-Comanche and Payne. The rest of the state remains Republican. Perhaps you have more thoughts about what the actual margin would look like).
3) Idaho-won by roughly 8.25% (though again, I am not sure, because I have Ada and Bannock Counties, with the former containing Boise, the state's capital, and the latter being Idaho's fifth most-populous, going to the Democrats. Blaine, Benewah, Shoshone, Latah, Nez Perce, Lewis, and Idaho Counties also go Democratic).
4) Wyoming-won by roughly 6.94% (with Sweetwater, Carbon, Albany, and Uinta joining Teton County. Albany was held by Trump with only a plurality of the vote in 2016. Again, I'm not sure if this percentage is too low or too high).
5) Louisiana-won by roughly 2.75% (keeping in mind what you said about North Louisiana and the New Orleans suburbs).
6. Alabama-won by roughly 2.30% (Northern Alabama, along with Baldwin and Shelby Counties, and a still-decent Republican performance in Montgomery County, along with a very narrow Democratic victory in Mobile County, allow the Republicans to eke out a win).

Do these figures seem reasonable? And I suspect that Vermont, California, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maryland, and perhaps Delaware all go greater than 70% or 80% Democratic. Texas, the states of the Midwest, Maine, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, and maybe Nevada and Virginia are probably >60% Democratic, with Arizona, Montana, the Dakotas, Kansas, Nebraska, and the remaining states not won by the Republicans are >50% Democratic. Do these also seem reasonable?


Cobb County is to the Northwest of Fulton

I find all fine except for number 2 which would be Oklahoma. If the Republican is able to still win all of those Rural county's i think he/she would win by alot more then 9.64%. City's in Oklahoma don't take up alot of the voting population of Oklahoma and if the republican still loses all of those county's but performs well in the rural's then he is bond to win upwards of 15%. It all depends on the margins though. If the democrats win more then 55% in the county's they won and keep a 2004 level presence in the rural county's they could lose by only 9.64% but if the democrats either win 55% or more or win 50-55% but lose rurals trump margins, then the win for the republican could be more then 20%

I agree with all minus Virginia. I doubt there is any way a Democrat wins Virginia upwards of 60% if the Republican performs that well in West (Not the State, the Region) and Central Virginia. I think that would be 55% margin for the democrats instead. But who knows, the democrats could be getting 80% in Fairfax for all i know.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2017, 10:23:54 PM »

If it was a 66% landslide (Which would be the largest since Madison was unopposed) then yes Democrats could of won possibly everything. As for the Numbers i would say:

White Vote - If White Voters are 70% of the Electorate and the Landslide is 66% then Democrats would probably win at least upwards of 55%. There share of the white vote would be lower then the Popular vote due to White Voters bias towards Republicans. If Democrats are getting 79-99% of the minority vote then it evens out

Hispanic Voters - At least 80-90%. Obama has already won 71% of this demographic in 2012 and the Democratic candidate could possibly top that in 2020.

Black Voters - They already vote 85% and over and voted for Hillary 88% and Obama over 90%. A Democratic landslide of this kind would probably take up practically 99% of the Black vote if not 100%.

Asian - Already voting lopsided margins for democrats as of late (65% in 2016) a landslide like this would probably win over 80% of the vote here. They were similar in voting habits to hispanics in 2016 and will probably resemble that in this election.

Other - Everyone else would vote 75% plus to the democrats. This is already a lean dem category.

Age Groups

18-29 - Millennials as a whole would go definitively over 85% for the Democrats. This is already a heavily democratic generation. White Millennials maybe would go a little less then that but the other black, Hispanic, and Asian Millennials will even that out over 85%

30 - 44 - Young Adults to Middle aged people would of course vote democrat though are OTL less democratic then millennials. 68-75%+ should be expected

45-64 - Middle aged peoples are more republican then 30-44 year olds but should vote democratic here. Maybe 55-61% for the Democratic party

65- Seniors and the like are a little less republican then the middle aged though still solidly. In this they should probably go a little more democratic then the middle aged but not by alot. Maybe 57-64% for the Democrats

Religion (Just numbers)

Protestants - Democratic - 55-65%

Catholic - 75-90% Democratic

Mormon -  49% - 59% Democratic

Other Christian - 58 - 68% Democratic

Jewish - 85 - 95 Democratic

Muslim - 80 - 90% Democratic

Others - 79 - 95% Democratic

None - Over 90% Democratic

Income -

Democrats sweep all

Democrats are strongest under 99,999$ and Republicans
are strongest Over $250,000 losing there only 55-44%

Education

Dems sweep :
High School or Less : 57-43%
Some College Education : 55-45%
College Graduation : 69%-31%
Postgraduate Education : 78%-22%
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2017, 10:31:14 AM »

If it was a 66% landslide (Which would be the largest since Madison was unopposed) then yes Democrats could of won possibly everything. As for the Numbers i would say:

White Vote - If White Voters are 70% of the Electorate and the Landslide is 66% then Democrats would probably win at least upwards of 55%. There share of the white vote would be lower then the Popular vote due to White Voters bias towards Republicans. If Democrats are getting 79-99% of the minority vote then it evens out

Hispanic Voters - At least 80-90%. Obama has already won 71% of this demographic in 2012 and the Democratic candidate could possibly top that in 2020.

Black Voters - They already vote 85% and over and voted for Hillary 88% and Obama over 90%. A Democratic landslide of this kind would probably take up practically 99% of the Black vote if not 100%.

Asian - Already voting lopsided margins for democrats as of late (65% in 2016) a landslide like this would probably win over 80% of the vote here. They were similar in voting habits to hispanics in 2016 and will probably resemble that in this election.

Other - Everyone else would vote 75% plus to the democrats. This is already a lean dem category.

Age Groups

18-29 - Millennials as a whole would go definitively over 85% for the Democrats. This is already a heavily democratic generation. White Millennials maybe would go a little less then that but the other black, Hispanic, and Asian Millennials will even that out over 85%

30 - 44 - Young Adults to Middle aged people would of course vote democrat though are OTL less democratic then millennials. 68-75%+ should be expected

45-64 - Middle aged peoples are more republican then 30-44 year olds but should vote democratic here. Maybe 55-61% for the Democratic party

65- Seniors and the like are a little less republican then the middle aged though still solidly. In this they should probably go a little more democratic then the middle aged but not by alot. Maybe 57-64% for the Democrats

Religion (Just numbers)

Protestants - Democratic - 55-65%

Catholic - 75-90% Democratic

Mormon -  49% - 59% Democratic

Other Christian - 58 - 68% Democratic

Jewish - 85 - 95 Democratic

Muslim - 80 - 90% Democratic

Others - 79 - 95% Democratic

None - Over 90% Democratic

Income -

Democrats sweep all

Democrats are strongest under 99,999$ and Republicans
are strongest Over $250,000 losing there only 55-44%

Education

Dems sweep :
High School or Less : 57-43%
Some College Education : 55-45%
College Graduation : 69%-31%
Postgraduate Education : 78%-22%


Those seem to be very good numbers. I'm thinking that reasonable results would be something along these lines:

Races

Whites: 57% Democratic
Blacks: 96% Democratic
Hispanics: 84% Democratic
Asians: 85% Democratic
Others: 75% Democratic

Age Groups

18-29: 85% Democratic
30-44: 68% Democratic
45-64: 61% Democratic
65+: 64% Democratic

Religion

Protestants-55% Democratic
Catholics-75% Democratic
Mormons-59% Democratic
Other Christians-68% Democratic
Jews-95% Democratic
Muslims-90% Democratic
Others-95% Democratic
None-90% Democratic

Income

All Democratic

Education

All Democratic:

High School or Less: 57% Democratic
Some College: 55% Democratic
College: 69% Democratic
Postgraduate: 78% Democratic

As for regions, the Democrats obviously dominate the urban and suburban vote, and capture a majority of the rural vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the overwhelming majority of the urban vote, while Trump won a plurality among suburban voters and the overwhelming majority of the rural vote.  In this scenario, all three go Democratic. But what would be the relative percentages? As for counties, I counted them up and determined that the Republicans won 966 counties; the Democrats 2,178. 69% of all counties went Democratic; 31% Republican. That would be a complete reversal of what happened in 2016, in which 84% of counties went Republican, and 16% Democratic.

Which notable counties, based upon a glance from the map, that Trump won, and that you know of, do you see going Democratic in this scenario? Which ones stay Republican?

What do you mean? Do you mean which Trump/Republican county's i think would go to the democrats in a 66% blowout.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2017, 10:56:20 PM »



My Map
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2017, 10:43:32 AM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2017, 09:26:02 AM »

Also, what's up with Mecklenburg?

That's a mistake. I glossed over NC and Virginia
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2017, 09:29:47 AM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2017, 01:13:30 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2017, 10:12:48 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2017, 10:37:02 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states




Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2017, 10:58:03 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2017, 11:09:28 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.

Seems right.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2017, 11:52:03 AM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.

Seems right.

Does this map of the congressional districts seem decent: https://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/f/f2/Map_of_Congressional_Districts%2C_2064.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803045441

Also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:Map_of_Congressional_Districts,_2064.png

Any districts that you think might need to be changed?

Nah that seems good to me except for Illinois. I don't think those few northern Illinois county's won by the republican are enough to flip the district in the North and also the one in California. But besides that, it looks good. There is some large county's in that district in California that the democrats one compared to the relatively sparsely population ones won by the Republican. I think if the District was further north then yes it would go republican but since it doesn't go that north i would say that it goes Democratic 1-5%.
Logged
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2017, 10:38:26 PM »

I would the states won by Trump in that Map would be Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, South Dakota and North Dakota, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Most Likely Nebraska or at least 2 out of 3 congressional districts with one district definitively going to the Democratic Nominee.
In less confidentially guesses i would say Tennessee would very Slightly go to the Democrats and so would Kentucky with both being won either way by 2%.
Alabama and Montana are the only other states being close Democratic wins. Mississippi, Indiana, Georgia, Missouri are also close but on a different level with it being between 5-10/15% instead of under 5%.
As for the 2020 map as a whole i would say its unlikely as i believe that 2020 will either be a Close Republican Win or Close Democratic Win with it IMAO being more likely leaning towards either a Trump/Pence/Whatever other Republican nominee is selected by the Republican Primary Electorate or Party itself like Kasich.
With Trump being able to win massive numbers in Rural county's unprecedentedly i think a 61-38 Landslide Democrat Victory would be alot more red than that map shows.
For Example in Utah the only reason Trump won only 50% plus in most of those Utah County's minus the Ski County's and Salt Lake County was due to McMullins third party candidacy.
 In a Normal Election like in 2008 we would see alot of those county's going Republican 60-70%.
I judge normal like 2004/08 Numbers due to 2012 high Utah margin for Romney due to him being Mormon.
So because of this 70%+ normally republican voting county's like Utah County would vote Democrat by much smaller margins.
Same with alot of those Collar County's surround Salt Lake.
 Another Example can be Southeast Illinois. I see hear you based it alot off of 2008/12 Numbers which are inflated towards Democrats due to Obama. Trump in 2016 massively improved in the Southeast and Central County's of the State winning upwards of 70-80% in alot of county's in virtually all of the Southeast.
As such in a 61-38% Landslide Trump would still win county's in Illinois and the Democrats would fail to get a full county sweep.
Democrats would still win much more then 2008 Obama due to massive gains in the North and Around Chicago but it would not be a fully county sweep.
Also those Northern county's you show going to trump on that map would flip far before those Southeastern County's do.
There are others but i think you get my point. As for Richard Cordray then this could very well pass for a Realignment map.
The Democrats would win upwards of 450+ Electoral Votes and possibility more then 500 and much more then the 15% Margin Cordray got in 2024.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.215 seconds with 11 queries.