Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Keystone Phil]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

Oh, absolutely. I just wish Election day wasn't next week!

Does anyone know how former President Dukakis is these days?

He's hanging at the Pool with Former President Dole.

Eh...I don't get if you're trying to make a point.    Mine was that Dukakis was up seventeen points in August 1988. Everyone needs to calm down.

[Wiz in Wis]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

Think about it this way: Perhaps mid-week date overstates McCain's lead. How 'bout that?

McCain isn't in the lead... just sayin

[King]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

Oh, absolutely. I just wish Election day wasn't next week!

Does anyone know how former President Dukakis is these days?

He's hanging at the Pool with Former President Dole.

Eh...I don't get if you're trying to make a point.    Mine was that Dukakis was up seventeen points in August 1988. Everyone needs to calm down.

You need to be more modern in your points.  A simple 2004 reference to "exit poll victory speeches" by the Democrats (such as mypalfish) would've been adequate.

[Eleanor Martins]

Bar fluctuations from week to week like Mikado said, I think last week was the point in time when the election conclusively, definitively broke for Obama. The ineptitude on show in McCain campaign the past 7 days shows the direction in which this is floating, because it just seems as if McCain's lost the initiative and become a reactionary, instead of the candidate which defines the issues that are to be fought over.

Time will bear me out, but I do think that he's drawn himself into the same sinkhole that Gore and Kerry did, where they're basically relying on a game-changing event to turn this thing around. If Pawlenty comes out grinning today with his arm around McCain it truly is over, the campaign can't afford an unoffensive, insipid choice like that.

[Lunar]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

Think about it this way: Perhaps mid-week date overstates McCain's lead. How 'bout that?

the election is on a Tuesday

Deadpan sarcasm > regular sarcasm

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 28, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Obama gained ground over McCain in each of the last three tracking updates, but today's average shows no further gains and a slight drop of Obama's percent of the vote from 49% to 48%. Obama's progress was coincident with his highly visible foreign tour, and it is not unreasonable to expect that his lead over McCain may settle back to a margin closer to what Gallup has measured for most of the summer as the impact of the trip fades. At the same time, McCain and his surrogates have engaged in sharp attacks on Obama in their attempt to blunt the impact of his trip, and some of that effort could have an effect on voters. The basic structure of the race so far this summer has been remarkably stable, and it remains to be seen if either candidate can alter it for a sustained period of time before the conventions in late August and early September.

Slight decline in Obama's lead now that Thursday's sample is out of the tracking but this is, of course, the full weekend polling data. It will be interesting to see how things stand Thursday, which will comprise weekday data from Mon thru' Weds

[J. J.]

Friday, July 25, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

I think today is Monday, July 28.    They are starting to run together.

I would be worried about a weekend sample showing a drop for Obama.  We could see a very big one tomorrow (that really won't mean a heck of a lot).

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, July 25, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

I think today is Monday, July 28.    They are starting to run together.

Corrected

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Not too worried. Obama, obviously, had a good Thursday (given his lead jumped from +2 to +6 in Friday's tracking) and it's data has exited from today's tracking

Dave

[Umengus]

Gallup says Mc Cain +4 in his USA today/gallup poll (LV). Gallup is a joke. A total joke.

[Eraserhead]

LOL at Gallup putting out two polls with completely different results and lol at summer polling in general. People on both sides should just relax for now. Go see Batman again or something.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 29, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 41% (+1)

Gallup Poll Daily tracking showed Obama gaining ground over McCain at the end of last week near the culmination of Obama's highly visible foreign tour. That "bounce" seems to be ebbing now, and the current evidence suggests that Obama has not been able to maintain or expand his 9-point lead as measured in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for July 24-26 -- at least in the short-term.

Obama has generally led McCain by a consistent, but small, margin for much of the summer. There have been the expected daily fluctuations in the size of that margin, including Obama's recent gain, but nothing so far to suggest any lasting disruption in the structure of the race.

[J. J.]

Wednesday and Thursday will be the key to Gallup.

[Rowan]

Once the weekend polling leaves the sample, it will be back to a 2-3 point race, where the race is right now.

[Democratic Hawk]

Once the weekend polling leaves the sample, it will be back to a 2-3 point race, where the race is right now.

And if not

[J. J.]

Once the weekend polling leaves the sample, it will be back to a 2-3 point race, where the race is right now.

And if not

I prefer to see the numbers after the weekend numbers are out.  I actually thing Obama might have improved very slightly.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

[J. J.]

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

And this is still with the weekend numbers partially included.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

And this is still with the weekend numbers partially included.

I'm just hoping McCain taking the low road, going all negative, backfires now. I'm not holding my breath however. McCain can do no wrong !

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

And this is still with the weekend numbers partially included.

I'm just hoping McCain taking the low road, going all negative, backfires now. I'm not holding my breath however. McCain can do no wrong !

Dave

No one's paying attention to what McCain's doing, at least not yet.

It has to do with Obama's campaign or Obama himself, as well-organized as they are, sending across the wrong message to that wavering 10%-15% who might be inclined to vote for him outside his base percentage.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 28-30.

The latest three-day average confirms that Obama was unable to solidify the significant lead he briefly enjoyed among registered voters at the height of publicity surrounding his weeklong visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Europe. Gallup tracking showed Obama's lead rising at one point as high as nine percentage points (for the average from last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), but the presumptive Democratic nominee has been losing ground since that point.

The race has been very close before, with Obama holding a 1-point lead as recently as July 15-17, and the race tied for several days in late June. The story of the election through the summer months has been a close race that simply does not seem to want to change. Obama has generally been in the lead, and it is significant that McCain has never held even a 1-point lead among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. Still, the relative stability of the race, even in the aftermath of such a high-visibility event as Obama's foreign trip (coupled, of course, with the McCain campaign's vigorous efforts to defuse its impact) continues to suggest that it may be the conventions in late August and early September that will offer the next potential timeframe for significant and/or sustained change.

[Keystone Phil]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Obama is walking away with this one.

[elcorazon]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Obama is walking away with this one.

why do you find this entertaining or humorous?  there are a few partisans who claim obama is going to win easy.  there are a few other more objective analysts who agree.  you yourself claim that summer polling is pretty crummy.  with all that said, you persist each time a poll shows the race tight or tightening to sarcastically comment as if 90% of the board were regularly claiming this won't be a close race.

[Keystone Phil]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Obama is walking away with this one.

why do you find this entertaining or humorous? 

The impending Obama landslide which will capture Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia is entertaining or humorous to me? Oh, so very far from it.

[J. J.]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Obama is walking away with this one.

why do you find this entertaining or humorous?  there are a few partisans who claim obama is going to win easy.  there are a few other more objective analysts who agree.  you yourself claim that summer polling is pretty crummy.  with all that said, you persist each time a poll shows the race tight or tightening to sarcastically comment as if 90% of the board were regularly claiming this won't be a close race.

I think we've had a few here that have said that, at some point.  I've been saying close, and factor out the weekend bump.  Now I'm wondering if there is a mid week bump.

[elcorazon]

a few, maybe, but if you're going to make the same sarcastic comment over and over and over and over, you better be calling out more than a few people.