Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Lord Halifax]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.

[Lord Halifax]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.

Generally, lots but of immigrants by itself isn't a predictor of high support for RWPPs, and Skane has been right wing for a long time. To my knowledge, Malmo isn't a bourgeois city like Stockholm so I don't think it's a class thing at hand either

The "lots of problems with them" is the important part, there is an ongoing gang war in Malmo, crime is high, Jews have been persecuted and so on. Malmo is an old industrial city with a strong working class culture. These places are often good for RWPPs. This thesis explains the SD appeal in Malmo fairly well: http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=1459290&fileOId=1487460

[Lord Halifax]

I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.

AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.

[Lord Halifax]

If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.

[Lord Halifax]

If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.

In both the 2010 and 2014 elections the Sweden Democrats saw their largest increases in support in municipalities which had the largest unemployment figures, there were no real connection seen between a large number of immigrants/refugees and increased support for SD, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

I assumed it would be different this time because it's the first election after the 2015 migrant crisis and the growth in SD's support is primarily a result of how that influenced Sweden .

[Lord Halifax]

Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place.

Why do you expect this election to follow the normal pattern?

[Lord Halifax]

Except that line of reported sex crimes goes from an exponential to a gradual increase. It is narrative claiming and just not good reporting.

What are you talking about? The 2010-16 increase is the fastest.

[Lord Halifax]

And AFS only got 0.3%

Where can you see that? Seems Others are lumped together on both val.se and in the media.

[Lord Halifax]

The thing is also that an S-L-C-MP government with support from V is a nightmare for SD. I imagine they'd retreat a fair bit to prevent that from happening.

Not sure I understand that. I get that it would lead to continued liberal immigration policies, but wouldn't it collapse fairly quickly due to the vast ideological differences between the parties at the extreme ends while gradually creating a conservative opposition bloc made up of SD, M and KD? Splitting the Alliance into Conservatives and Liberals must be good for SD. Their long term goal is presumably a government based on an SD, M, KD majority.

[Lord Halifax]

The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

It seems Sweden lacks genuinely centrist parties. The so-called Centre Party is more right wing than your Conservatives on labour market issues and many economic issues, the Liberals are also right wing on labour market and taxes, the Christian Democrats have moved from being centrist to more Conservative than the Conservatives, and your Greens seem very watermelon-ish. So there aren't really any parties in between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. Is that correct?

[Lord Halifax]

The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

It seems Sweden lacks genuinely centrist parties. The so-called Centre Party is more right wing than your Conservatives on labour market issues and many economic issues, the Liberals are also right wing on labour market and taxes, the Christian Democrats have moved from being centrist to more Conservative than the Conservatives, and your Greens seem very watermelon-ish. So there aren't really any parties in between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. Is that correct?

If you're talking strictly economics, I think MP, KD and SD are all somewhere between S and M (MP closer to S, KD and SD more nebulous). But they are obviously each far from the center on other, non-economic issues, and those non-economic issues are their flagship issues, so there's no generally centrist party that can work with both the right and left blocs. C used to be that party but has become libertarian-light in recent years (although its voter base is probably still the most classically "centrist" and wouldn't punish the party for supporting the left).

It was a question for the Swedish posters. I am well aware of the differences on social issues. 

[Lord Halifax]

Lol Swedish Christian Democrats at 12% in new Sentio poll. What the hell is happening?

C+L supporting Löfven's left wing government, Ebba Busch Thor being more charismatic/popular than Ulf Kristersson to pick up those votes. Also this latest poll was carried out just after KD opened for negotiations with SD on specific policy issues, something all parties had rejected so far. In that way, the party has taken the lead in creating a common right wing alternative to the current majority.

In the Sentio Poll, M-KD-SD have 49.3%, while the current centre-left majority is on 48.0%. And with L and MP under the threshold, there is a clear majority for the conservative opposition.

well it doesn't really matter, we are 3,5 years from next election

From the next ordinary election. An extra election before then is more likely than not.

[Lord Halifax]

The Burundian-born Nyamko Sabuni

Her parents were Congolese refugees. Her place of birth isn't that relevant.