West Virginia Megathread

[Mogrovejo]

Capito is the most popular politician in a R+14 state. Barring a scandal, it'll be a double digits affair.

[DINGO Joe]

There was a story on Platt's yesterday (may require registration to read)

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/pittsburgh/southern-company-sees-decline-in-central-appalachian-21600302

It's about the Southern Company's coal buying from different US producing regions for it's electric plants.  In 2007 they bought 78 million tons of coal with about 26 mt from the CAPP region (CAPP is Central Appalachian--South WV, Western VA, and East KY) In 2012, they bought 42 mt with 8 mt from the CAPP and in 2016 they expect to buy 45-50 mt with only 500,000 tons from the CAPP.  Bottom line is the bottom line and the fact is that for coal plants to compete with natural gas they need cheaper coal than the CAPP region can produce.

Unless you plan to outlaw NG, thermal coal mines in the CAPP will keep closing as far as I can see.

[DINGO Joe]

Was playing around with Atlas and saw that the peak year for voting in WV was 1952 when they cast 873,000 votes for President.  In 2012 it was 670,000.  It's the only state that cast fewer votes in 2012 than in 1952, not Kansas, not Rhode Island.  Only state to cast fewer votes and it cast almost 25% less.  It's not been a steady decline, but it's still amazing how long the WV decline/inability to reinvent itself has been going on.

[PolitiJunkie]

Was playing around with Atlas and saw that the peak year for voting in WV was 1952 when they cast 873,000 votes for President.  In 2012 it was 670,000.  It's the only state that cast fewer votes in 2012 than in 1952, not Kansas, not Rhode Island.  Only state to cast fewer votes and it cast almost 25% less.  It's not been a steady decline, but it's still amazing how long the WV decline/inability to reinvent itself has been going on.

Yeah West Virginia just really, really sucks.

[publicunofficial]

From a Natalie Tennant mailer:

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Looks like she's trying to frame Capito as DC Republican, and herself as a WV Democrat. It's a very good strategy, one that is only helped by the shutdown situation.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Was playing around with Atlas and saw that the peak year for voting in WV was 1952 when they cast 873,000 votes for President.  In 2012 it was 670,000.  It's the only state that cast fewer votes in 2012 than in 1952, not Kansas, not Rhode Island.  Only state to cast fewer votes and it cast almost 25% less.  It's not been a steady decline, but it's still amazing how long the WV decline/inability to reinvent itself has been going on.

Yeah West Virginia just really, really sucks.

I should insult you for insulting my family’s home state, but alas, people are indeed leaving in droves.

[windjammer]

SMC voted the compromise!

[RogueBeaver]

SMC voted the compromise!

Thankfully, no surprise that.

[Miles]

From RRH:

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[windjammer]

Popular?

[Miles]

Well, he's been Auditor for 16 years.

The only thing is that there have been recent ethics issues against hi.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

So Likely R?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So Likely R?

I'd say Lean R.

[Miles]

Gainer carried this district 59-41 in 2012 against Berkely County delegate Larry Faircloth, who's actually running for Congress next door in CD2.

I'd say Lean R as well; McKinley has a pretty good pro-coal record, so he starts out with the upper hand.

[Miles]

Former CBS news correspondent Ed Rabel is leaving the Democrats to run for the Mountain Party's nomination in CD2. The Mountain Party is the state equivalent of the Green Party.

This guy kinda reminds me of a WV version of TNF:

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[DINGO Joe]

It is a bit of a sore spot for WV that no major coal mining company is headquarted in WV.  ANR and JRCC are in VA, Consul in Pittsburgh, Massey in OH, Peabody, ACI and Patriot in St. Louis, ARLP in Tulsa, Westmoreland and Cloud in WY, Walter in Birmingham, so populism does also work against the mining companies in WV.

Also, a WARN notice went out for a mine and processing complex in Wayne Co last week.  177 miners plus 59 at a related trucking company

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/galax-virginia/us-argus-energy-to-close-west-virginia-mines-21789425

And JRCC has idled additional mines in EKY, laying off an additional 200 miners.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/james-river-coal-idles-four-123915027.html

In the last 18 months there have been about 6500 workers directly involved in mining who have lost jobs in the CAPP.  Outside of the CAPP, the only mine that I know of that has shut down was in Colorado, which had something horrible happen that led them to seal the mine with a 100 million dollar piece of equipment left inside--It's a Koch brothers operation so let your imagination go wild.

[Miles]

Call me pessimistic, but I tend to agree with this guy's column on CD1:

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I think the jury may still be out on the first point, but McKinley definitely has a pro-coal record and Obama will be tough to overcome.

[windjammer]

Call me pessimistic, but I tend to agree with this guy's column on CD1:

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I think the jury may still be out on the first point, but McKinley definitely has a pro-coal record and Obama will be tough to overcome.

Unfortunately, you're right. WV democrats will lose big in 2014 I guess

[Miles]

Gainer is a good candidate, but I'd say that CD1 should be the lowest district on Democrats' WV priority list.

They have a better opportunity in the open CD2 (which is also a few points less Republican) and they have to help Rahall, who will be hanging on for dear life this cycle.

[IceSpear]

If they couldn't beat Rahall with Obama on the ballot, they won't be able to beat him when he isn't on it.

[Miles]

If they couldn't beat Rahall with Obama on the ballot, they won't be able to beat him when he isn't on it.

But imagine how Rahall is feeling after last week's results.

In the counties with coal mines, McAuliffe/Northam/Herring performed just as bad, or worse in some cases, as Obama.

[publicunofficial]

If they couldn't beat Rahall with Obama on the ballot, they won't be able to beat him when he isn't on it.

But imagine how Rahall is feeling after last week's results.

In the counties with coal mines, McAuliffe/Northam/Herring performed just as bad, or worse in some cases, as Obama.

Nick Rahall isn't Terry McAuliffe. His whole career and campaign message is coal.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Cuccinelli pretty much deluged coal country in VA with ads about how McAuliffe is anti-coal, which McAuliffe didn't do much to refute. But Rahall has decades of service proving his dedication to coal.

[Miles]

Manchin on the EPA's overreach.

[Miles]

FWIW, this was the swing in WV-03 between the 2010 and 2012 Congressional races.



The result in Lincoln County was exactly the same (to the hundredth of a decimal place); it must have been a statistical fluke.

Mason County was added after redistricting.

Rahall still managed to win Wyoming County despite it being 76% Romney. I wouldn't be surprised if thats some sort of a record.

I don't know if its good or bad that Rahall improved slightly in the area where Jenkins is from.