Saddam Verdict Could Be November Surprise

[Nym90]

Kerry's botched joke will have more impact than the Saddam verdict. And to clarify, I mean that this won't have any impact. No one disputes that Saddam was a murderous prick.

^^^^

At this point, anything that puts the focus on Iraq doesn't help the GOP. This might help people think a little less unfavorably about Iraq, but it also makes people think about it more overall, and the overall view of it is still going to be highly negative for Americans, so if anything it's a wash.

[Nym90]

-There's a good chance the Sunnis are going to riot like mad

Yes, that's a very good point.  It's quite possible that the Sunni insurgents have a big "response" planned for when the verdict is read.  At the same time, I expect that the verdict will prompt celebrations among the Shiites and Kurds.  So it's quite possible that the media will cover this in a way that reinforces in people's minds the fact that Iraq is so terribly divided, with little chance of national reconciliation any time in the near future.

Good points. As I said, I think at this point anything that puts spotlight on Iraq is bad for the GOP overall. The more coverage it gets, and the more attention is focused on it, the worse it is for the Republicans at this point.

If we ignore the political analysis and focus on the trial itself for a moment, obviously I am quite glad Saddam is finally getting what's coming to him. But in the long run it may not be helping the overall mission or goal; it's about the Iraqi people and the security of the United States at this point. Saddam is old news.