Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasserman called CA-45  for Porter.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sad.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1062874259956133888

[Landslide Lyndon]

The guy from Salt Lake Trib says his #s are definitely actual #s reported by county clerks, so Wasserman is overstating Mia Love's chances.

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062914856289034240

Yeah, Wasserman can be a wiz with the numbers but he can be pretty obnoxious too. He could have asked politely his colleague to clarify his numbers instead of arrogantly disputing his knowledge.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Galaxy brain at work.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Surprised it was that close, so how many indies voted for Poliquin then?

Sounds like it was close to a 60-40 split.

Do we even know the first round results? It seems that they stopped at 95% of precincts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Golden should be fine for 2020 considering that no Dem House incumbents lost re-election.

No Dem House incumbents lost re-election in a D+8 or more environment that is. He would have just as high a chance at the Senate seat (which is infinitely more valuable) than he would at re-election, assuming the GOP runs a competent challenger. We're incredibly polarized now.

Trump in the White House is the best thing going for all these newly elected Democrats in swing districts, just like W. was ten years ago for the class of 2006.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The first Asian-American woman elected to congress just got de-elected.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

That’s a really wild map

Let's hope there will be a similar map of Harris and Dallas counties in two years.

[Landslide Lyndon]

MidTerm Election Turnout 2018 per Dave Wasserman from Cook thus far

110,506,863 Votes

There are 2M I think to count in CA. Still, that's a pretty INSANE Turnout for a MidTerm.

That's pretty crazy. The turnout is much closer to a typical presidential election than it is to a typical midterm.

2018 (so far): 110,506,863
2016: 128,627,010
2014: 78,235,240
2012: 122,346,020
2010: 86,784,957
2008: 122,586,293
2006: 80,975,537

As mentioned elsewhere, it's the biggest midterm turnout since women started voting.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasserman just called CA-39 for "weak candidate" Cisneros.

[Landslide Lyndon]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

Bacon seems to be a weak incumbent, so it's almost certain that he will face another stiff challenge in two years.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

I think Marchant is the most enticing target. He is an old, anonymous backbencher that had never before a competitive election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

Crenshaw is massively overrated. He may be good looking and a veteran, but he is be no means a safe incumbent in 2020. He's gone if the GOP continues to tank in the suburbs.

LOL
It would literally take a massive wave with a god tier candidate to take him out in 2020.
Trump will win this district in 2020 barring the wave and Crenshaw > Trump so crenshaw also wins.

He underperformed Ted Poe's 2016 margin by 17 points and he's holding a district that is trending Democrat. I personally think he's going to win in 2020, but the possibility of him losing is high.

Coz obviously 2020 is gonna be a wave.
hack.

Um, unless Trump gets a personality transplant it will probably be.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Mia Love is the Republican version of Dan Maffei.

[Landslide Lyndon]

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

1982 and 2010 were wave elections because of the bad economy. Trump and the Republicans on the contrary enjoyed the best economy in almost 20 years and still got clobbered. And it can only get worse the next two years.

[Landslide Lyndon]

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

1982 and 2010 were wave elections because of the bad economy. Trump and the Republicans on the contrary enjoyed the best economy in almost 20 years and still got clobbered. And it can only get worse the next two years.

and 94 was a decent economy afaik.  Trump can pivot to the center. He has to push the criminal justice reform and thats a good bipartisan victory for all.

No, he can't. The guy thinks the midterms were a personal triumph. Why would he change his tune?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any news about Cox?

According to https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article221926680.html, Kern won't have another update until Monday.  No idea about the other counties.

Tulare updated a whole seven votes, with Valadao gaining one.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Valadao is scum for having the audacity to vote 99% of the time with Trump in a Clinton +16 district. He deserves to be humiliated by losing to a random bankrupt carpetbagging gringo.

Is Cox really Anglo? I read somewhere that he is actually Filipino-American.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

What made them so weak? Ik love had some campaign finance problems but it was basically inside baseball. Wtf caused maffei to get before so hard

Love was a black woman, so that might have something to do with her tepid support in a heavily Republican district.
As for Maffei, we are debating about him years now and there is still no definitive answer as to why he lost so badly to Katko.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone who cares, Mia Love has conceded to McAdams.
Farewell to one of the biggest congressional underperformers ever.

she and dan maffei must be good friends.

What made them so weak? Ik love had some campaign finance problems but it was basically inside baseball. Wtf caused maffei to get before so hard

Maffei's margin of loss in NY-24 in 2014 is the margin of an incumbent who got indicted two weeks before the election.

Wait did he get indicted or are you comparing?
I still don't get how u lose by 20 points if you don't have any major scandals

That's the point, he was a scandal-free, uncontroversial incumbent sitting in an Obama +17 district, and he got curbstomped by 20. It's a mystery.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maffei also underperformed pretty badly in 2012 too, so it wasn't just political environment or Katko's "candidate quality."

Obviously Maffei was never a strong candidate/talented politician. And losing by 5-6 points would raise some eyebrows but be within the realm of possibility.
But losing by 20, only if he was Roy Moore-like radioactive could anyone imagine such an obliteration.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone still keeping score.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

TBH there was a quality gap and its effects are obvious: despite CA39 being both open and the most Clinton of the OC CDs (not including 49), it has the smallest Dem margin of victory. It's just that partisanship is a hell of a drug.

Even if Cisneros wasn't that great of a candidate, that doesn't explain the insane hype surrounding Kim. Neither her electoral, history, nor the campaign she ran warranted the predictions that she would easily dispatch her opponent in an open Clinton district.