Vermont gubernatorial election, 2008

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They can't do that -- they actually have elected officeholders.

Actually, the Green Party has around 230 elected officials nationwide, including the mayor of a city in California with over 100,000 people (Richmond).

That being said, I do not see the point in having the Vermont Progressives (or the Working Families Party) merge with the Greens currently. If there was PR and party lists for parliamentary elections in the US, then it would make sense though.

Sorry, let me qualify: they actually have elected officeholders in partisan positions. The Greens have plenty of people they slip in to nonpartisan elections, but aside from John Eder (and that was only for like, 2 terms), can't get anyone elected to a partisan office.

[Dan the Roman]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

Ten years ago yes. I think the GOP is all but dead in Vermont that the chance to take out the only remaining Republican in the state would outweigh whatever damage it would do. Plus they will come under enormous pressure from the Daily Kos base to not give up the governorship and for the individuals legislators the threat of primary challengers matters more. Democrats generally are in a much more partisan mood than in 2002. I also think it would depend on the Presidential results. If Obama lost, the Democrats would be under enormous pressure to lash out against someone and Douglas would be an easy target.

That said, Douglas would be smart to nail Symington on pledging to abide by the results. If Symington does, as both Racine and Dwyer did, then it would be hard for the leglisator to elect anyone other than Douglas.

[Third Party]

Sorry, let me qualify: they actually have elected officeholders in partisan positions. The Greens have plenty of people they slip in to nonpartisan elections, but aside from John Eder (and that was only for like, 2 terms), can't get anyone elected to a partisan office.

I know that the Vermont Progressive Party has won many partisan elections, which I mentioned in my first post in this thread. However, the Green Party has also won many partisan elections as well (not just for state legislature in Maine, but also for city councilor and similar positions in a number of states). It is hard to say how many, because the ballot laws vary from state to state. For example, here in Nebraska even the legislature elections are non-partisan, while the city council/mayor elections have partisan labels.

[Verily]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

They can very credibly make the argument in the case of a, say, 40R-35D-25P result that the people preferred a Democrat.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm supporting Douglas, and he'll likely win.  If he could win in 2006, he can win in 2008.

[Erc]

If you dig far enough, you can probably find a prediction of mine that Scudder Parker would make it a close race in 2006.

I'm not making that same mistake again...unless I can see some damn good evidence that Douglas is doing poorly, I'm not going to be convinced that he's in trouble.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

They can very credibly make the argument in the case of a, say, 40R-35D-25P result that the people preferred a Democrat.

Yeah, but what are the chances that Douglas drops that many points from 2006?

[Associate Justice PiT]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

They can very credibly make the argument in the case of a, say, 40R-35D-25P result that the people preferred a Democrat.

Yeah, but what are the chances that Douglas drops that many points from 2006?

     Agreed. It seems like Pollina would cannibalize Symington alot more than he would Douglas. Since this is Vermont, he will take something from Douglas though.

[Verily]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

They can very credibly make the argument in the case of a, say, 40R-35D-25P result that the people preferred a Democrat.

Yeah, but what are the chances that Douglas drops that many points from 2006?

Who said I was postulating a likely result? Certainly for Douglas to drop below 50%, Pollina has to be pulling a pretty big share of the vote directly from him (not at all unlikely). And Symington would probably have done better than Scudder Parker in 2006, if not much better.

[Хahar 🤔]

Here's how I see it:

Pollina can't win.
If Douglas gets a majority, he wins.
If Douglas doesn't get a majority, Symington wins.

[Sensei]

I'm really liking Douglas to take this one. I just don't see Symington doing that much better than Scudder Parker. Pollina has no chance of winning.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't want to make a new thread about this, so I'll stick it in here: the Republican candidate for Attorney General in Vermont is a M2F transsexual (not to mention crackpot).

[Associate Justice PiT]

I don't want to make a new thread about this, so I'll stick it in here: the Republican candidate for Attorney General in Vermont is a M2F transsexual (not to mention crackpot).

     Since this is Vermont, I guess this makes that race safe Republican now.

[HardRCafé]

Does Kerin just run for any old office every two years?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Does Kerin just run for any old office every two years?

She lost the Republican primary for the House in 2002 and for Attorney General in 2004 and 2006. She did manage to get the Republican nomination for the House in 2000 by virtue of being the only candidate on the ballot, then won 19% of the vote against Bernie Sanders.

[Kevinstat]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

Ten years ago yes. I think the GOP is all but dead in Vermont that the chance to take out the only remaining Republican in the state would outweigh whatever damage it would do. Plus they will come under enormous pressure from the Daily Kos base to not give up the governorship and for the individuals legislators the threat of primary challengers matters more. Democrats generally are in a much more partisan mood than in 2002. I also think it would depend on the Presidential results. If Obama lost, the Democrats would be under enormous pressure to lash out against someone and Douglas would be an easy target.

That said, Douglas would be smart to nail Symington on pledging to abide by the results. If Symington does, as both Racine and Dwyer did, then it would be hard for the leglisator to elect anyone other than Douglas.

Dwyer had made that pledge in 2000?  I remember reading that Dean was effectively only barely reelected in 2000 because the Republican Legislature would have voted in Dwyer.  And I had read that Racine plegged not to contest the election in the Legislature even if he got a plurality of the vote as was expected (but didn't happen) but not a majority.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't want to make a new thread about this, so I'll stick it in here: the Republican candidate for Attorney General in Vermont is a M2F transsexual (not to mention crackpot).

     Since this is Vermont, I guess this makes that race safe Republican now.

Thats nothing. In 2006 5% of the voters in the GOP primary voted for a guy that wanted to legalise Marijuana and impeach Bush.

Douglas is probably safe, but this is Vermont and anything is possible. 
What about Lt. Governor Brain Dubie(R) he is pro-life and yet was elected in 2002 and reelected in 2004, 2006?

This state is weird! 

[Kevinstat]

Dubie owed his initial election to Democratic-Progressive (Pollina actually) vote-splitting I believe, but his remaining in office as a not particularly moderate (if at all) Republican is impressive.  I'm not sure what his reelection percentages have been.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dubie owed his initial election to Democratic-Progressive (Pollina actually) vote-splitting I believe, but his remaining in office as a not particularly moderate (if at all) Republican is impressive.  I'm not sure what his reelection percentages have been.

2006 was his closest race: He only won by 5.7%.  A part of that is probably attributable to his flirtation with running for Congress.

He won by 20% in 2004.  He was initially elected in 2002 by a 9% margin.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Thats nothing. In 2006 5% of the voters in the GOP primary voted for a guy that wanted to legalise Marijuana

SATAN!!!

[Dan the Roman]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

Ten years ago yes. I think the GOP is all but dead in Vermont that the chance to take out the only remaining Republican in the state would outweigh whatever damage it would do. Plus they will come under enormous pressure from the Daily Kos base to not give up the governorship and for the individuals legislators the threat of primary challengers matters more. Democrats generally are in a much more partisan mood than in 2002. I also think it would depend on the Presidential results. If Obama lost, the Democrats would be under enormous pressure to lash out against someone and Douglas would be an easy target.

That said, Douglas would be smart to nail Symington on pledging to abide by the results. If Symington does, as both Racine and Dwyer did, then it would be hard for the leglisator to elect anyone other than Douglas.

Dwyer had made that pledge in 2000?  I remember reading that Dean was effectively only barely reelected in 2000 because the Republican Legislature would have voted in Dwyer.  And I had read that Racine plegged not to contest the election in the Legislature even if he got a plurality of the vote as was expected (but didn't happen) but not a majority.

Dwyer did not make the pledge pr-election, but she conceded early on election night before the votes were counted. At the time it was clear she was around ten points behind Dean, but not that Dean was above 50%. She made it pretty clear at the time she had no interest in contesting it.

[nclib]

Does Kerin just run for any old office every two years?

She lost the Republican primary for the House in 2002 and for Attorney General in 2004 and 2006. She did manage to get the Republican nomination for the House in 2000 by virtue of being the only candidate on the ballot, then won 19% of the vote against Bernie Sanders.

In the general election of 2000, did a sizeable number of conservatives vote for her? It appears she was the only non-leftist on the ballot.

[Ronnie]

I'd love to see Douglas to pick up a senate seat when Leahy retires.