IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[UncleSam]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Perhaps they wear Orange avatars as well.

Where is the all of the above option

[The Free North]

3rd party candidates usually underperform their poll numbers by a decent margin (if their support doesnt melt away with a few weeks to go). I would imagine most Libertarian voters would go to the Reps not the Dems so seeing that L number shrink and Braun rise is not surprising. The state was sadly forgotten about by pollsters for a while, but i would surprised if this wasnt an R pickup.

[Zaybay]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Perhaps they wear Orange avatars as well.

Where is the all of the above option

Yeah, true, hacks come in all shapes and sizes.

[J. J.]

The thing I'm looking at is that Trump greatly underpolled in IN.   Unless the modeling is really improved, Braun may be underpolling a bit.  A 0.2 point Braun lead could translate into a 3.2 point win. 

That is also why I'm worried about AZ and NV. Trump overpolled. 

[BuckeyeNut]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Perhaps they wear Orange avatars as well.

I wonder who you could be talking about.

You have less than 200 posts and are already one of the dumbest members of Atlas. And no, not for playing coy, but sheer hackery. Congrats, that's impressive.

[SCNCmod]

I figured I'd look at the google trends for the state to try and get a better look at the race.

Not surprisingly, in the past week you can see Immigration skyrocketing (migrant caravan bump):


Healthcare has been consistently the highest political trend in the state, which is good news for Donnelly, but the immigration bump has got to be a plus from Braun.  If you look at the county map, Healthcare is the top issue in Donnelly counties and immigration is the top in Murdock counties (although there are a fair amount of Murdock counties with Healthcare on top still):


Basically, Donnelly needs Indiana to defy its political lean and he seemed to be doing alright.  But with immigration issues mobilizing the state's fundamentals, it makes sense Braun is getting the wind in his sails at the right time.

I think Tariffs could decide this race if it is really close.  There is a small uptrend in the Blue line for Tariffs in you graph... And this is one issue that has seemed to  create a backlash for Trump in Midwestern states (and could explain why polling models may overestimate Republican support this year?)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Perhaps they wear Orange avatars as well.

Where is the all of the above option

Hacks, hacks, hacks!
You're all hacks!
None of you are free of sin!
People were astonished at his doctrine.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Meanwhile live look at the Donnelly Campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZoJZddsSfM

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Change Research has IN-9 as Braun+9 and IN-5 as Donnelly+5.

Besides that being a funny coincidence, how does that compare to the 2012 race? 

IN-05 is a traditionally Republican area but it is that same old story of GOP Struggling with college educated white suburbs. Braun doesn't really offend these people the way that Mourdoch did, though. The big unknown that will determine this race, is do enough of these people come home or not to the GOP.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/joe-donnelly-but-awkward-moment-diversity/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this the deathblow to Donnelly's campaign?

[ON Progressive]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/joe-donnelly-but-awkward-moment-diversity/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this the deathblow to Donnelly's campaign?

This will shift almost zero votes, if it shifts any. If he loses, it won't be because of this.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

IN-5 is a very good data point for Donnelly.  It's the only district where Clinton 2016 improved on Obama 2012 performance; and it's looking even better for Donnelly this time around.

Remembering the 2016 results, it seems likely those new Donnelly votes are coming from Hamilton County, which has long been a Republican bastion (the last Democrat to carry the county was Woodrow Wilson in 1912 against a divided GOP field), but where the local Democratic party has been noticeably gaining ground in the last few elections. Significantly, said growth is reflected pretty well down ballot: it really does seem that the county is becoming more Democratic (though the GOP is still the heavy favorite), as opposed to a one-time swing against Trump.

[Oryxslayer]

The other thing about IN-05 is that it includes quite a bit of Northern Marion thats full of dem voters and AAs.

[libertpaulian]

Marist: Joe up by 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/indiana-senate-race-poll-democrat-joe-donnelly-leads-republican-mike-braun.html

FAUX News: Joe up by 7 (!!!!)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-indiana-senate-poll-10-31-2018

If Donnelly manages to win IN-05, that bodes VERY well for Danny O'Connor in OH-12, IMO.

The other thing about IN-05 is that it includes quite a bit of Northern Marion thats full of dem voters and AAs.

Yes, and it's also one of those ancestrally Republican regions that started trending D in the 90s.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Phew. I was really worried this one was slipping away.

[libertpaulian]

Honestly, the only disappointment from this race is that Howey never conducted a poll.

[libertpaulian]

I early voted today.  It was a 1 hour and 40 minute wait.  Took about 10 minutes to show ID, wait for a booth to open, and vote. 

Vote for Joe, of course. 

The crowd looked to be a decent mix of old, young, and in the middle.  Largely white but also a significant minority presence.  Lots of women, too.

Per one of the poll workers, about 4600 people have voted since early voting began at this particular early voting site.

[Gass3268]

I early voted today.  It was a 1 hour and 40 minute wait.  Took about 10 minutes to show ID, wait for a booth to open, and vote. 

Vote for Joe, of course. 

The crowd looked to be a decent mix of old, young, and in the middle.  Largely white but also a significant minority presence.  Lots of women, too.

Per one of the poll workers, about 4600 people have voted since early voting began at this particular early voting site.

Obviously this is an area Donnelly needs to clean up in, correct?

[libertpaulian]

I early voted today.  It was a 1 hour and 40 minute wait.  Took about 10 minutes to show ID, wait for a booth to open, and vote.  

Vote for Joe, of course.  

The crowd looked to be a decent mix of old, young, and in the middle.  Largely white but also a significant minority presence.  Lots of women, too.

Per one of the poll workers, about 4600 people have voted since early voting began at this particular early voting site.

Obviously this is an area Donnelly needs to clean up in, correct?

Yes.  Lake County is historically the most Democratic county in the state (although it trended slightly R in 2016 due to Trump's message and Marion surpassed it), with Gary, Hammond, and East Chicago being the county's core Democratic micro-cities.  I live in Munster, a well-off suburban town that trended toward Hillary in 2016.

Just to clarify: That's 4600 people at this particular site, not in the entire county.  The poll worker said lines have been this long every day since the beginning.

[libertpaulian]

BTW, I know this isn't exactly about the IN-SEN race, but it's somewhat related to it.  There's an Indiana state senate race on Tuesday.  This seat in particular is currently held by an entrenched incumbent, Mike Delph, who is one of the architects of the controversial state RFRA law.  He's being challenged by openly gay Democrat JD Ford.  Think of it as the Midwestern version of Bob Marshall vs. Danica Roem.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/01/delph-faces-election-rematch-swing-district/1744133002/?fbclid=IwAR0BtIfagQTe52UkRPsimugCCIryRHNn6qIcnvEGfemN78fBKsyJcC1Y8vg

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The race is considered a dead heat.  Given how ancestrally R this district is and the closeness of the race, I think this race may prove to be a bellwether of the US Senate race.  If Ford either wins or comes very close to defeating Delph, then I think Donnelly is having a good night and is likely having a coattail effect on these downballot candidates.

Any thoughts?

[ON Progressive]

snip

Thanks for posting this, I will definitely be watching this one on Tuesday. One of the most satisfying things in life is to see anti-LGBT a-holes lose elections to LGBT candidates.

[libertpaulian]

snip

Thanks for posting this, I will definitely be watching this one on Tuesday. One of the most satisfying things in life is to see anti-LGBT a-holes lose elections to LGBT candidates.

Yeah, Danica Roem beating Bob Marshall was the highlight of the night for me last year.  Let's hope Ford has similar success!

But do you think that my view is a typical Atlas #hottake?  Or is there some truth that this state senate race could be a bellwether for the Donnelly one? 

[libertpaulian]

snip

Thanks for posting this, I will definitely be watching this one on Tuesday. One of the most satisfying things in life is to see anti-LGBT a-holes lose elections to LGBT candidates.

Yeah, Danica Roem beating Bob Marshall was the highlight of the night for me last year.  Let's hope Ford has similar success!

But do you think that my view is a typical Atlas #hottake?  Or is there some truth that this state senate race could be a bellwether for the Donnelly one? 

Didn’t this district vote for Clinton? If so, I don’t really think it tells us much about Indiana as a whole

I'm not sure if we have 2016 presidential breakdowns by state senate district.

[Bidenworth2020]

snip

Thanks for posting this, I will definitely be watching this one on Tuesday. One of the most satisfying things in life is to see anti-LGBT a-holes lose elections to LGBT candidates.

Yeah, Danica Roem beating Bob Marshall was the highlight of the night for me last year.  Let's hope Ford has similar success!

But do you think that my view is a typical Atlas #hottake?  Or is there some truth that this state senate race could be a bellwether for the Donnelly one? 

Didn’t this district vote for Clinton? If so, I don’t really think it tells us much about Indiana as a whole

I'm not sure if we have 2016 presidential breakdowns by state senate district.

it went for hillary by 12... idk if thats a great bellwether

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14t1IIgPtL8VfJYwl0m4nXTsoZYEg2HyzuyOgCC0NG0I/edit#gid=719564425

[SCNCmod]

What's the feeling on the ground in Indiana... Is momentum shifting in either direction?