FL-SEN: Scott Pursuit

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Nelson hasn't even started his campaign yet and people are already saying he's DoA, a loser, etc. Y'all realize it's only May and most people aren't focusing on midterms, right?

But I forgot, money buys everything apparently. That's why soyboy swamp creature Jeb Bush spent $150 million and got a whopping 7th place in the GOP primary. Or how Rick Scott spent tons of millions only to win by 1%. Or how Rauner spent over 50 million and nearly lost his primary. Or how JB Pritzker spent nearly $100M and less than half of the state views him favorably. But muh money buys everything right?

[KingSweden]

There are still too many variables for Scott in this race. Most notably hurricane season which starts in a few weeks

More like three months, but yes. This race will be quite fluid

Hurricane season actually starts at the beginning of June, so we're getting pretty close. This year is expected to be worse than average, though most think it won't be as bad as last year. Based on forecasts, we'll probably see between 2-4 major hurricanes from Atlantic, as well as a handful of smaller ones. Florida had one of the stronger responses in 2017, so if that replicates this year, I'd expect that to work in Scott's favor.

IMO this race is a toss-up right now with Nelson slightly favored - still a lot that can happen and these are two strong candidates. Probably comes down to how bad the national environment gets for Republicans (like many other races).

I still regard it as Lean D but yes

[YE]

There are still too many variables for Scott in this race. Most notably hurricane season which starts in a few weeks

More like three months, but yes. This race will be quite fluid

Hurricane season actually starts at the beginning of June, so we're getting pretty close. This year is expected to be worse than average, though most think it won't be as bad as last year. Based on forecasts, we'll probably see between 2-4 major hurricanes from Atlantic, as well as a handful of smaller ones. Florida had one of the stronger responses in 2017, so if that replicates this year, I'd expect that to work in Scott's favor.

IMO this race is a toss-up right now with Nelson slightly favored - still a lot that can happen and these are two strong candidates. Probably comes down to how bad the national environment gets for Republicans (like many other races).

Don't try to predict where a hurricane is going to make landfall in the longer range based on seasonal numbers. Precise weather patterns can't be predicted long in advance.

Anyhow, this race screams one that breaks towards the Dems in 2018 late due to the national mood. It'll be close for a while though. 

[Pandaguineapig]

If Nelson wins this it will be because of the national environment or a mistake made by Scott. It's becoming clear that he is not the campaigner he once was ( and to be fair he hasn't had a real race in almost 20 years) and his age is really starting to catch up with him.

Nope, Nelson is a strong incumbent, Scott's only main advantage is he has a lot of money

Look the national environment can very much help you out but Scott has emerged as a very popular governor and Nelson (who I must remind you has not faced a real challenge in nearly 20 years) is definitely not as with it as he was even a few years ago.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Nelson wins this it will be because of the national environment or a mistake made by Scott. It's becoming clear that he is not the campaigner he once was ( and to be fair he hasn't had a real race in almost 20 years) and his age is really starting to catch up with him.

Nope, Nelson is a strong incumbent, Scott's only main advantage is he has a lot of money

Look the national environment can very much help you out but Scott has emerged as a very popular governor and Nelson (who I must remind you has not faced a real challenge in nearly 20 years) is definitely not as with it as he was even a few years ago.

Connie Mack IV

The clowns on Atlas don't realize that Connie Mack IV was considered the "best challenger Nelson has faced in decades" by all the pundits, started off strong, and then got BTFO'd by Nelson. Everyone has selective memories.

[tmthforu94]

There are still too many variables for Scott in this race. Most notably hurricane season which starts in a few weeks

More like three months, but yes. This race will be quite fluid

Hurricane season actually starts at the beginning of June, so we're getting pretty close. This year is expected to be worse than average, though most think it won't be as bad as last year. Based on forecasts, we'll probably see between 2-4 major hurricanes from Atlantic, as well as a handful of smaller ones. Florida had one of the stronger responses in 2017, so if that replicates this year, I'd expect that to work in Scott's favor.

IMO this race is a toss-up right now with Nelson slightly favored - still a lot that can happen and these are two strong candidates. Probably comes down to how bad the national environment gets for Republicans (like many other races).

Don't try to predict where a hurricane is going to make landfall in the longer range based on seasonal numbers. Precise weather patterns can't be predicted long in advance.

Anyhow, this race screams one that breaks towards the Dems in 2018 late due to the national mood. It'll be close for a while though. 

I wasn't predicting when a hurricane was going to hit Florida, just stating when hurricane season typically starts and how many are projected for this year. This is based on science and data. I actually work in flood insurance, YE, so I have a bit of an idea what I'm talking about on this.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

There are still too many variables for Scott in this race. Most notably hurricane season which starts in a few weeks

More like three months, but yes. This race will be quite fluid

The Atlantic Hurricane season lasts from June 1st-November 30th every year.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#bac

[junior chįmp]

I love reading the posts on here by right wing dopes about how Scott will win because of muh hurricanes

Elections are basically 95% national enviorments.... nobody cares about Scott's accomplishments as governor or whatever

Scott will get BTFO

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not buying that Nelson is unbeatable or that Scott will be pushover (the guy knows how to run effective campaigns), but the national environment will probably save Nelson in the end. I think the trajectory of this race will closely resemble MO-SEN 2016.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really cannot see Rick Scott beating Nelson. The national environment just doesn't favor him for a victory.

[Politician]

I’m not buying that Nelson is unbeatable or that Scott will be pushover (the guy knows how to run effective campaigns), but the national environment will probably save Nelson in the end. I think the trajectory of this race will closely resemble MO-SEN 2016.

Fair, but Nelson is a stronger and more entrenched incumbent than Blunt was in 2016.

[YE]

There are still too many variables for Scott in this race. Most notably hurricane season which starts in a few weeks

More like three months, but yes. This race will be quite fluid

Hurricane season actually starts at the beginning of June, so we're getting pretty close. This year is expected to be worse than average, though most think it won't be as bad as last year. Based on forecasts, we'll probably see between 2-4 major hurricanes from Atlantic, as well as a handful of smaller ones. Florida had one of the stronger responses in 2017, so if that replicates this year, I'd expect that to work in Scott's favor.

IMO this race is a toss-up right now with Nelson slightly favored - still a lot that can happen and these are two strong candidates. Probably comes down to how bad the national environment gets for Republicans (like many other races).

Don't try to predict where a hurricane is going to make landfall in the longer range based on seasonal numbers. Precise weather patterns can't be predicted long in advance.

Anyhow, this race screams one that breaks towards the Dems in 2018 late due to the national mood. It'll be close for a while though. 

I wasn't predicting when a hurricane was going to hit Florida, just stating when hurricane season typically starts and how many are projected for this year. This is based on science and data. I actually work in flood insurance, YE, so I have a bit of an idea what I'm talking about on this.

Fair enough. I am a meteorology student so I don't want people getting complacent just because X storms are predicted.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not buying that Nelson is unbeatable or that Scott will be pushover (the guy knows how to run effective campaigns), but the national environment will probably save Nelson in the end. I think the trajectory of this race will closely resemble MO-SEN 2016.

Fair, but Nelson is a stronger and more entrenched incumbent than Blunt was in 2016.

Yeah, I’m aware it’s not the best comparison (Blunt is obviously less popular than Nelson is right now, the electorate in FL is a lot more volatile, etc.), but there are a few parallels. Of course I could be wrong and Nelson yet again easily beats his opponent by a high single-digit/low double-digit margin, who knows.

[Strudelcutie4427]

There are still too many variables for Scott in this race. Most notably hurricane season which starts in a few weeks

More like three months, but yes. This race will be quite fluid

Hurricane season actually starts at the beginning of June, so we're getting pretty close. This year is expected to be worse than average, though most think it won't be as bad as last year. Based on forecasts, we'll probably see between 2-4 major hurricanes from Atlantic, as well as a handful of smaller ones. Florida had one of the stronger responses in 2017, so if that replicates this year, I'd expect that to work in Scott's favor.

IMO this race is a toss-up right now with Nelson slightly favored - still a lot that can happen and these are two strong candidates. Probably comes down to how bad the national environment gets for Republicans (like many other races).

Don't try to predict where a hurricane is going to make landfall in the longer range based on seasonal numbers. Precise weather patterns can't be predicted long in advance.

Anyhow, this race screams one that breaks towards the Dems in 2018 late due to the national mood. It'll be close for a while though. 

I wasn't predicting when a hurricane was going to hit Florida, just stating when hurricane season typically starts and how many are projected for this year. This is based on science and data. I actually work in flood insurance, YE, so I have a bit of an idea what I'm talking about on this.

Fair enough. I am a meteorology student so I don't want people getting complacent just because X storms are predicted.

Cant it be predicted where they end up if we look at the amplitude and angles of the cold fronts right now, but shift them a little north? I know that hurricanes like to play follow the leader and their paths often cluster in one area, like last year where we had a bunch right off the east coast, and the previous year with them clustering around the FL-GA-SC bend

[YE]

There are still too many variables for Scott in this race. Most notably hurricane season which starts in a few weeks

More like three months, but yes. This race will be quite fluid

Hurricane season actually starts at the beginning of June, so we're getting pretty close. This year is expected to be worse than average, though most think it won't be as bad as last year. Based on forecasts, we'll probably see between 2-4 major hurricanes from Atlantic, as well as a handful of smaller ones. Florida had one of the stronger responses in 2017, so if that replicates this year, I'd expect that to work in Scott's favor.

IMO this race is a toss-up right now with Nelson slightly favored - still a lot that can happen and these are two strong candidates. Probably comes down to how bad the national environment gets for Republicans (like many other races).

Don't try to predict where a hurricane is going to make landfall in the longer range based on seasonal numbers. Precise weather patterns can't be predicted long in advance.

Anyhow, this race screams one that breaks towards the Dems in 2018 late due to the national mood. It'll be close for a while though. 

I wasn't predicting when a hurricane was going to hit Florida, just stating when hurricane season typically starts and how many are projected for this year. This is based on science and data. I actually work in flood insurance, YE, so I have a bit of an idea what I'm talking about on this.

Fair enough. I am a meteorology student so I don't want people getting complacent just because X storms are predicted.

Cant it be predicted where they end up if we look at the amplitude and angles of the cold fronts right now, but shift them a little north? I know that hurricanes like to play follow the leader and their paths often cluster in one area, like last year where we had a bunch right off the east coast, and the previous year with them clustering around the FL-GA-SC bend

Not 4-5 months out.

[krazen1211]

Tampa Bay Insiders overwhelmingly predict Victory to Rick Scott.

[TheSaint250]

A little local perspective here: Rick Scott’s campaign has been hammering ads out recently. The most prevalent issue he talks about is term limits. Other ads have looked to portray Nelson as being a partisan hack (which now seems to have gotten a little more difficult with his vote for Gina Haspel).

[Politician]

Tampa Bay Insiders overwhelmingly predict Victory to Rick Scott.

LMAO

[Xing]

Nelson would definitely be in for the fight of his life in a neutral environment or an R-leaning year, but I think that once Scott is portrayed as a rubber stamp on Trump, Nelson's numbers will rise. Races in Florida generally remain fairly close, so I doubt Nelson gets another double-digit victory, but Scott doesn't have nearly as much room to grow from here as an incumbent with less name recognition might. If things get better for Republicans, Scott has a chance, but there's no way that this seat flips before seats like Missouri and West Virginia. Lean D for now.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So what does the map look like in each of the following scenarios?

Nelson double-digit win
Nelson narrow win (environment like it is now)
Race within a percentage point of even
Scott narrow win
Scott blowout

I don't know much about Florida politics other than Miami has a bunch of Cuban Americans and their descendants, the I-4 corridor is full of former Puerto-Ricans, there are lots of old people, and generally the further south you go the more Democrats there are.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nelson will win by at least five, with Gweyn Graham helping him to a much needed win.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So what does the map look like in each of the following scenarios?

Nelson double-digit win
Nelson narrow win (environment like it is now)
Race within a percentage point of even
Scott narrow win
Scott blowout

I don't know much about Florida politics other than Miami has a bunch of Cuban Americans and their descendants, the I-4 corridor is full of former Puerto-Ricans, there are lots of old people, and generally the further south you go the more Democrats there are.

In a narrow Scott win, Nelson's constituency will look very similar to Hillary. He will do a bit worse among cubans and hispanics but a bit better among old white people.

[junior chįmp]

Nelson released his first ad:

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/998661801314222082/video/1

Stresses his days as an astronaut and healthcare/SS

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nelson released his first ad:

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/998661801314222082/video/1

Stresses his days as an astronaut and healthcare/SS

Good ad! I like the Florida First part lol.

[Young Conservative]

Nelson released his first ad:

https://twitter.com/FlaDems/status/998661801314222082/video/1

Stresses his days as an astronaut and healthcare/SS

Good ad! I like the Florida First part lol.

This is clearly going to run in northern Florida.