Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

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If the PVV underperform, could we see a post-Wilders populist-right start to appear? I mean it seems like he is really the sticking point in terms of gaining respectable support and coalition building. (Especially the parties huge underperformance at local levels)

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If the PVV underperform, could we see a post-Wilders populist-right start to appear? I mean it seems like he is really the sticking point in terms of gaining respectable support and coalition building.

I'm not quite sure I really understand what you mean. The PVV are (or rather: Geert Wilders is) still an extremely strong "brand" among their potential voters and they have a rather high floor in terms of seats. I am skeptical about the potential success of an alternative to the PVV, especially after witnessing the failure of the trainwreck that is VNL. Due to the mere presence of the PVV, the VVD have to move to the right all the time in order to court VVD-PVV swing voters. So even while perpetually in opposition, the PVV exert a certain degree of influence on policy. That said, people may stop believing Wilders, just like Flemish voters stopped believing Vlaams Belang when it was in opposition for too long. If the PVV does not change course, I doubt it will be around in ten years (though an alternative to the/this PVV certainly will). But for now, Wilders will stick around regardless of the election result. It is not as if he has many other options in life by now. And as long as he sticks around, I don't think there is any space for another populist right-wing party or movement.

I'll try to rephrase, I guess. The PVV (Wilders) is effectively unable to gain power (and seemingly disinterested in doing so after their experience with Rutte 1 - one could troll and claim they are the last testimonial party left). I understand that suits Wilders, but surely some of his lieutenants or subordinates (who can't all be autonomous drones) get irritated that the party is effectively capped in its support? Especially if they look at parties like the FPO or DPP that are effectively becoming part of the government furniture in all levels of government.

Now that I think about it, is there a heir apparent to succeed Wilders as Populist right leader?

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The compromise could be just to establish a quorum so 50% of voters are required for a referendum that would change foreign  relations.

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Remember how the initial dream of D66 was to bring in an American style executive President and FPTP?

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the trouble with the Danish system is you get ridiculous grandstanding (on both sides) over random stuff like the EU PATENT COURT (or whatever).

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How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

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How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

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"proposed single payer" - but Sanders fans assured me all of Europtopia had single payer! Next you'll be saying not all Europeans have free college!

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How many party manifestos/policy planks have been released btw?

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Any hilarious/wack policies that everybody is making fun of?

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If I was to put money on it, I would ultimately bet on VVD-CDA-D66 with back-up from the Christian parties and 50Plus to make up the majority in both houses. (that government would have 35 seats in the Senate, so would require 3 more votes to pass legislation which they could easily get from 50Plus, CU or SGP.)

(also hahaha SP's leader in the senate is called Tiny Kox haha)

What possible coalition could be formed if those were the results? It'd have to span the political spectrum quite considerably, which is potentially problematic.

The most likely option seems to be a government, either with a minority or a majority in parliament, consisting of VVD, CDA, D66 together with or sustained from the outside by at least one (but likely more) of CU, PvdA, GL (CU most likely to govern, then PvdA, then GL) with additional occasional support of 50Plus and/or SGP. Such a coalition would be devoid of any political color and doubtlessly make the PVV even bigger. From a democratic perspective, it is also problematic when there is no real policy alternative to a certain coalition.

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

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PvdA-D66-VVD-CDA-CU, with support from the GL, and 50 Plus?

At a guessm PvdA aren't going to be rushing into any coalition unless they really are obligated. They are at the sort of levels where a period of recovery is needed. (and given the Netherlands; volatile electorate, they'll probably be polling at landslide levels within ten weeks of the next government being formed. Or alternatively polling below DANK and PvdD.)

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

VVD-CDA-D66 would be pretty much ideologically coherent, yes, but it becomes a different story if PvdA and/or GL also enter the government.

Are either of them really needed to be honest? If a government needs 76, and the basic main three borg. parties are polling around 60-65 at the moment (and this is assuming people attracted by "stability" don't rally round the flag of the "sensible parties". Considering the Christians will give you a dependable 8 or so seats, all you have to ensure is that 50Plus don't lose votes (unless they lose votes to CDA or VVD I guess) and you have a narrow, and vaguely coherent government.

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didn't Rutte I rely on the SGP in the senate?

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it is not possible to form a stable government with PVV and any party.

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This may be a bit of an amoral solution, but I feel the best solution is to channel the dislike of islam held by the populace into dislike of the biggest enemy of Saudi Arabia.

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Here's a thought: would PVV be doing better or worse if it had the same issues etc but was led by a more bland-Hofer like individual than the divisive Wilders? (Ignoring of course that a PVV without Wilders wouldn't actually be the PVV)

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Actually, I'm surprised there are no Trots or other such Anticapitalist True Left types that believe SP are New Left sellouts. (This is where Greece, with its chaotic crew of squabbling subthreshold far-leftists, really shines)

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Wait does the former Netherlands Antilles vote in the general? Who do they go for?

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Actually the lack of districts does mean a pleasing absence of regionalist parties, which tend to be far worse than single-issue, one-man and even fringe ideological parties in terms of government formation and democratic accountability. If parliaments start to break down into huge crowds of LOCAL HEROES squirreling money to their districts in return for confidence and tit-for-tat, that's never a great sign.

However, I would much prefer the introduction of districts in an MMP system (preferably half with single-constitency IRV) than a threshold. I don't really think the fractiousness nature of government formation in the Netherlands is a fault of the PvdD, SGP, 50PLUS etc (in fact the main party leading to the destabilisation of governments is decidedly non-micro, given that it is leading in the polls).

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Something else: NRC Handelsblad, the Dutch Guardian, today reported extensively about the way DENK uses fake profiles/socks on Facebook and Twitter to silence online critics.

NRC is hardly the Dutch Guardian. The Guardian is a newspaper which has always been linked to the Labour party. The Dutch Guardian therefore would be De Volkskrant. NRC is much closer to The Independent.

??

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First time I've seen PVDA above SP in awhile. And disaffected PVV voters can't be going to D66 can they?

Almost certainly not - presumably such a swing if it is corrobated by other polls would suggest that the VVD is attracting back soft PVV voters (who may be frightened of terrorism, but not enough to back blondie) while simultaneously suffering some bleeding to their liberal side.

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Which party will splurge the most?

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Haha, can't wait for the Economist to endorse DENK.

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Wow, basically the exact thing he did last time. Because that was so successful!

Wilders is basically a prime example of a politician who confuses wanking off the cadre all the time with appealling to the base. I mean, I know he has his cult, bit sooner or later the Populist Right in the Netherlands has got to realise that their God Emperor is a liability right?

Wait ... Does Geert have any children that will be his Marine?

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Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

Prediction: PvdD will be second in the polls next week..