Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

... and apparently "no" has regained the momentum.


Left = including don't knows
Right = excluding don't knows

37% say they will surely vote, another 28% say they will probably vote = 65% together. This will of course be lower irl. I think turnout will be in the low to mid 40s.

D66 has presented its campaign posters:

"Safe external borders
Strong democracy
Free trade
Vote FOR on 6 April"

[Zinneke]

The VVD doing clickbait and edgy memes: "10 instances of nanny statism that are so yesterday. Especially the third one you will not believe."

"1. Free plastic bags? No, they are outlawed! Good luck at the Chinese restaurant!
2. With your old car in the city center? Forget about it!
3. Launching balloons on your birthday? Illegal!
4. On Meatless Monday, everything in the cafetaria is vegetarian!
5. Setting off fireworks on New Year's Eve and having fun? Nope!
6. The government wants you to share your clothes.
7. You cannot ride a scooter anymore.
8. ... and you will be freezing at the terrace.
9. Mandatory flags in your snacks so you know where the meat is from.
10. The shop is open, but the door has to be closed to protect the environment.

It is nothing new: politicians think something is not right and immediately want to ban it. But we think the rest of the Netherlands should not be bothered by politicians' opinion of balloons and beautiful old cars. Let's keep it a bit fun, shall we?"

People probably like this, but I find it cringeworthy (most of these ridiculous things are just ideas that one party -- generally the PvdD -- has, not actual policy).

Haven't they been in power from r the last three terms, or was that just all one big nightmare.

[DavidB.]

Haven't they been in power from r the last three terms, or was that just all one big nightmare.

I'm afraid I do not understand what you mean.

[DavidB.]

Article by the BBC on the referendum.

And a less objective one by someone who works at a Kiev think tank at Politico Europe.

Received my voting pass today. Leaning to vote for the Agreement now.

[freek]

Just for fun: election results by polling station (on a map) for Provincial/Senatorial elections 2015: click. NRC had this for the 2012 and 2010 Tweede Kamer elections too, but if I click on the polling stations I don't get a result anymore, so I did not include them here.

In case someone is interested: I have the full results per polling station for the 2015 province (and water board) elections, in xlsx format. Unfortunately without geographic coordinates though.

Please let me know if I should upload it to my website.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

[DavidB.]

Seen today: referendum campaign posters by the tiny "Jesus Lives" party. Message: "Jesus wants you. Not EU-kraine!"

[freek]

Hurrah! I have finished my e-learning course for volunteering in the polling station. Apparently it is illegal to leave a D66-balloon tied to the table that we use for handing out the ballot papers to the voters. Also, we should check that we have  received the correct ballot papers some time before opening at 0730, not afterwards.

[DavidB.]

Hurrah! I have finished my e-learning course for volunteering in the polling station. Apparently it is illegal to leave a D66-balloon tied to the table that we use for handing out the ballot papers to the voters. Also, we should check that we have  received the correct ballot papers some time before opening at 0730, not afterwards.

You can do that online now? That's convenient.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that James Joyce is alive and well and living in Maastricht.

[DavidB.]

The latest Peilingwijzer. Trends: PVV clearly downward, VVD clearly upward, GL slightly upward, D66 slightly downward.

During the last months, the PVV has had a clear lead, but the VVD's numbers are improving at the expense of the PVV now. I don't know why, but I suspect it's because of the fact that Greece + refugees + terrorists have gotten slightly less attention recently (until this week at least), driving VVD-leaning potential PVV voters voters back to the VVD. D66 has had quite some negative press recently because of MP Hachchi's bizarre, sudden resignation + Pechtold hiding the fact that some rich businessman payed for him and fellow D66 MP Kees Verhoeven to fly to Ukraine in his private jet (in the context of the referendum campaign), which he should have declared.

[DavidB.]

Deputy Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher (PvdA) just called the prospect of the PvdA entering a coalition with the VVD after the 2017 election "unlikely". Together with Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb and Amsterdam mayor Eberhard van der Laan, Asscher is seen as one of the top candidates to replace Diederik Samsom as PvdA leader, though it remains to be seen whether Samsom will be ousted.

The fact that Lodewijk and Eberhard might replace Diederik (three names that should literally be in the top-10 of poshest Dutch names) says enough about the PvdA and its problems.

[DavidB.]

Voting compass for the referendum here.

Q1: Ukrainian and Dutch companies should be allowed to freely establish themselves on each other's territory. (Helemaal mee eens = Fully agree, Helemaal niet mee eens = fully disagree)
Q2: In order to limit illegal immigration, the EU should be allowed to give money to Ukraine
Q3: The Agreement supports Ukrainians who want to choose a pro-European course
Q4: Because there is too much corruption in Ukraine, the EU should not give financial aid
Q5: The Agreement with Ukraine undermines wages in the Netherlands
Q6: The EU should not invest in a council of ministers, public servants and experts from the EU and Ukraine
Q7: The EU should be allowed to give money to Ukraine in order to better protect the environment
Q8: It is good for Ukraine to participate in military operations led by the EU
Q9: Entrepreneurs from Ukraine and the EU should be free to invest in each other's territory
Q10: Opening the borders with Ukraine is a threat to employment in the Netherlands
Q11: The Agreement stimulates employment in Ukraine, so Ukrainians will not come to the Netherlands to find jobs
Q12: The EU should be allowed to support Ukraine financially in order to make the production of nuclear energy in Ukraine safer
Q13: Ukrainian companies should be treated similarly to companies from EU member states when there is concurrence for government orders
Q14: The Netherlands needs to reject the Agreement in order to prevent Ukraine from coming closer to full EU membership
Q15: The Agreement will make the conflict between Russia and Ukraine worse
Q16: The EU is already big enough, I'd rather see countries leave than new countries enter
Q17: The Netherlands needs to accept the Agreement in order to limit Russia's influence in Ukraine
Q18: The Agreement with Ukraine is bad for the Dutch economy
Q19: Travellers [not referring to gypsies, DavidB] between EU countries and Ukraine should be able to travel without a visa
Q20: By striking an agreement with Ukraine, the import of oil and gas from Russia will be endangered
Q21: The EU should not be allowed to give money to Ukraine in order to support weaker sectors of the Ukrainian economy
Q22: The Agreement with Ukraine should be accepted, because free trade will foster democracy in Ukraine
Q23: The EU should continue to levy import tariffs on Ukrainian products
Q24: The Agreement with Ukraine jeopardizes social security in the Netherlands
Q25: The EU and Ukraine should cooperate in order to combat terrorism and organized crime
Q26: It should become easier for Ukrainian employees to work in the EU with a temporary labor contract
Q27: The Agreement is a good way to improve human rights in Ukraine
Q28: The EU should not strike agreements with other countries as long as the economic crisis persists
Q29: The agreement with Ukraine will bring more stability to the European external borders
Q30: It is good for Ukraine to adjust its laws to European rules.

A bit of a stupid test sometimes, because some questions are simply about facts, not about opinions. However, I found it fun to do. Got a score of almost 50% in favor of the Agreement myself.

[DavidB.]

Here's a video (the third one on the page) of Richard Sakwa, a well-known scholar of Russian politics (known to be relatively "pro-Kremlin"), explaining on Dutch television (in English) why he would advise the Dutch electorate to vote against the Agreement and debating with Deputy Prime Minister Asscher. Sakwa's is obviously a minority opinion among academics in his field, but I found it an interesting fragment nonetheless, even if I agree much more with Asscher.

[DavidB.]

Dutch parliament just observed a minute's silence because of the attacks in Brussels. Speaker Khadija Arib: "Because we are historically connected. Because they are our dear neighbors. Because Brussels is the heart of Europe, where we stand for the same values: openness, safety and freedom - the freedom to believe, but also the freedom not to believe. And exactly these core values came under crossfire this Tuesday."

Meanwhile, the fact that one of the attackers was deported from Turkey to the Netherlands when he attempted to go to Syria might lead to new problems for Security & Justice Minister Ard van der Steur (VVD), who has been minister for only a year yet has had a lot of embarrassing moments already.

[DavidB.]

I hope you and the people close to you are okay, JosepBroz. Aren't you in Brussels?

Security & Justice Minister Ard van der Steur (VVD) is in dire straits. Ibrahim el Bakraoui, one of the perpetrators of the Brussels attacks, had been deported from Turkey to the Netherlands in July 2015 because Turkey knew there was a terrorist threat. The Dutch got an intelligence notification with "very urgent" on it, but did not open it and let El Bakraoui go. Van der Steur blames Turkey, but that is not considered very convincing. What makes it worse, German terror suspect Samir E., to whom Brussels terrorist attacks perpetrator Khaled el Bakraoui sent his last text message, also landed in the Netherlands in July 2015 without any problems -- on the very same flight as Ibrahim. 

In short, to put it bluntly, people get the impression that the Netherlands has become the gateway for terrorists to the EU because the Security & Justice Ministry, which has been a merger of several ministries since 2010, is incompetent. This has to do with the fact that there is a toxic culture in the ministry, which is too large and basically unmanageable for ministers.

It is likely that Van der Steur will have to step down. This has the potential to become a scandal that can make the government collapse, especially given Van der Steur's extremely bad explanation in parliament, so it would be better for the government if he steps down by himself.

[jeron]

I hope you and the people close to you are okay, JosepBroz. Aren't you in Brussels?

Security & Justice Minister Ard van der Steur (VVD) is in dire straits. Ibrahim el Bakraoui, one of the perpetrators of the Brussels attacks, had been deported from Turkey to the Netherlands in July 2015 because Turkey knew there was a terrorist threat. The Dutch got an intelligence notification with "very urgent" on it, but did not open it and let El Bakraoui go. Van der Steur blames Turkey, but that is not considered very convincing. What makes it worse, German terror suspect Samir E., to whom Brussels terrorist attacks perpetrator Khaled el Bakraoui sent his last text message, also landed in the Netherlands in July 2015 without any problems -- on the very same flight as Ibrahim. 

In short, to put it bluntly, people get the impression that the Netherlands has become the gateway for terrorists to the EU because the Security & Justice Ministry, which has been a merger of several ministries since 2010, is incompetent. This has to do with the fact that there is a toxic culture in the ministry, which is too large and basically unmanageable for ministers.

It is likely that Van der Steur will have to step down. This has the potential to become a scandal that can make the government collapse, especially given Van der Steur's extremely bad explanation in parliament, so it would be better for the government if he steps down by himself.

The question is will the VVD be prepared to let him go now. It would be the second minister within this ministry to step down and VVD may want to avoid that. It does show the failure that the ministry has been. After the next elections the police will go back to the interior ministry.

[DavidB.]

The question is will the VVD be prepared to let him go now. It would be the second minister within this ministry to step down and VVD may want to avoid that. It does show the failure that the ministry has been. After the next elections the police will go back to the interior ministry.

Depends on how big of a story this is going to be, and how much pressure there will be. The VVD, indeed, might want to avoid Van der Steur from having to step down, but that would still be an infinitely better outcome for the VVD than the government collapsing. Early elections before the summer (or right after the summer, like in 2012) would be an utter disaster for them. It would totally ruin the positive story they are preparing for 2017 ("it wasn't always easy, but we finished the job and we have been responsible").

[DavidB.]

New TNS Nipo poll: 32% "definitely" intend to vote, 25% will "probably" do so. 54% are against, 36% in favor and 10% don't know.

The government has stepped up its game and launched a last-minute campaigning plan, which includes a media offensive (national newspapers, talkshows) and sending tweets from the new account @oekraine6april. Apparently, the ministers don't like talking about Ukraine and try to dodge their responsibilities. All this has been leaked to RTL, which published it. The underlying assumption of the government's strategy, the idea that the government can convince people to turn out and vote for, seems a bit misguided. It might as well lead to an anti-government backlash and drive up the vote among people who oppose the agreement. The government should probably have let the parties deal with it. The only reason it does not do so seems to be that this would be "not done" vis-à-vis the EU (plus some typical Mark Rutte hybris, perhaps). However, it seems foolish for an unpopular government to try and promote an unpopular agreement, and its foolishness might come at a price.

Rutte now stated that if it were up to him, Ukraine would never become an EU member. Comparisons with Rutte stating (in September 2012) that if it were up to him, no euro would be spent on Greece anymore were low-hanging fruit, of course.

At this point, this referendum has "2005 European constitution scenario" written all over it. The Dutch will vote against, and the low turnout escape route seems to be closed off by all the media attention (and the government's campaign): the referendum will be the number 1 issue during the coming days.

[DavidB.]

My prediction for tomorrow: 40% for, 60% against, 37% turnout.

Polls are open from 7:30 until 21:00.

[DavidB.]

Just voted against the agreement.

Turnout in Rotterdam was 3% at 10AM. In the European Parliament election in 2014 (total turnout Rotterdam: 35.1%) it was 4.3%.

[DavidB.]

It is currently the question whether the 30% turnout threshold will be reached. Most analysts expect turnout to be barely over 30% on the basis of the incoming figures, but these seem to be strikingly low -- Amsterdam had only 6.5% turnout at 1PM. I take all #analysis with many grains of salt, including pollster Maurice de Hond's remark that if turnout will not be over 13% at 4PM in the big cities, the threshold will not be reached. Pollster, political science professor and professional attention whore André Krouwel expected turnout to be around 50%. People should know whom they cannot take seriously anymore in the future.

I personally think there will be a larger difference between minority turnout (except for Jews -- all three of us are sure to vote...) and Dutch turnout in this election, because Muslim and (certain) Surinamese minorities have less of a reason to vote than in regular elections. Hence, the discrepancy between turnout in large cities and turnout outside the large cities will be larger, which is why I think low turnout figures in the cities do not necessarily imply that the threshold will not be reached (although it is obviously relevant), but again, you should also take this #analysis with some grains of salt...

[DavidB.]

Current estimate: 30.8%

[DavidB.]

Turnout seems to be quite high in no-areas (Maastricht, Dordrecht) and extremely low in yes-areas (Amsterdam). This is going to be a landslide. Fully expect no to get at least 60% of the vote.

new estimate:

and these are only some large (and a few not so large) cities. turnout outside large cities will be higher. still, this model is based on EP14 and very problematic in many respects, so I will be biting my nails for the rest of the day

[DavidB.]

Results will be published here