Anyway, I used to live in Felin. Plenty of Tories in the village at this time of year but they're all boat owners and aren't registered to vote there! Also the Tory does not live there. Result: Soviet majority.
The 'Independent' in the Bangor ward is part of a Left populist Local People For Local People group founded by a former Labour member. Their logo incorporates a red star. Very active in the community, run a charity shop etc.
That's a coincidence. My ward is up next week. Should be a fairly boring Labour hold with no Ukip candidate for some reason.
And yes, extrapolating from council by elections is a mugs game at the best of times so plenty of sale required. Guess we'll see sooner or later